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29 January 2002. North Korea has signalled it may be ready to restart reconciliation talks with South Korea. Yang Hyon Sop, the vice president of the Supreme People's Assembly, emphasized Jan. 22 the need to accelerate the process of Korean reunification, adding that it was "imperative to seek authorities-to-authorities dialogue, and all forms of non-governmental talks and contacts, and work harder to boost them," according to the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
Seoul reacted quickly and warmly to Pyongyang's apparent overture. With South Korea's presidential elections coming in December, both governments see a rapidly closing window of opportunity to revitalize inter-Korean dialogue. Russia and China have also encouraged Pyongyang to reopen talks, fearing that North Korea could become another target of the United States' ever-expanding war against terrorism.
U.S. President George W. Bush last November delivered a not-so-veiled threat that North Korea was little different from Iraq and could become a target of U.S. action just like Afghanistan. Bush's comments sparked a propaganda outcry from Pyongyang, which vowed through its official media that any attack would lead to U.S. forces being "annihilated to the last man."
Washington's no-nonsense attitude in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks suddenly gave Moscow, Beijing and Seoul a pressing need to cooperate on the North Korea issue. Moscow has been particularly important in influencing Pyongyang's recent call to resume reconciliation talks, which if successful could bring much-needed aid to North Korea and decrease Seoul's dependence on Washington by stabilizing the Korean peninsula.
During the Texas summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Bush in November 2001, Bush expressed frustration with North Korea's general belligerence, according to sources in the Russian Foreign Ministry. Bush asked Putin to rein in Pyongyang, a task the Russian president readily accepted.
For Moscow, bringing Pyongyang back to the bargaining table would serve the dual purpose of reducing tensions in Northeast Asia -- allowing Moscow to focus on increasing its economic and political ties with Europe -- and raising Russia's standing and importance in the eyes of the United States.
But Moscow was not isolated in its recent involvement. In private talks among Russian, Chinese and South Korean diplomatic staff since November, all three nations expressed concern with Bush's comments on North Korea and agreed that they must coordinate their actions toward Pyongyang, according to sources. What emerged was a focus on the single concrete issue upon which all three nations could agree, and to which Pyongyang's cooperation was vital: rail links.
A New Year's editorial published in North Korea's top three papers emphasized that upgrading railway transportation was a priority for 2002. North Korean leader Kim Jong Il visited the Kim Jong Thae Electric Locomotive Plant Jan. 5, and the next day he paid an unusual visit to the Russian Embassy in Pyongyang to meet Ambassador Andrei Karlov. Significantly, when reporting on the meeting, North Korea's media focused on Moscow-Pyongyang cooperation in reconnecting rail lines between the two nations.
Following these moves, South Korean officials Jan. 17 announced that North Korea was showing signs of restarting stalled work on an inter-Korean rail connection. The officials said Pyongyang was fixing barracks for engineering troops and deploying more troops to the border area where the inter-Korean rail line will cross the demilitarized zone.
China has also been using rail links as a way to press North Korea to restart dialogue with the South. South Korean officials said Jan. 17 that Beijing wanted to soon complete the Seoul-Sinuiju line -- which runs from South Korea through North Korea and into China -- because it would be difficult to transport Chinese World Cup fans to South Korea by air this summer, according to the South Korean daily Chosun Ilbo.
An ethnic Korean newspaper in China's Heilongjiang province also reported in early January that work on the first stage of a railway project to link China's rail system with Russia's Trans-Siberian Railway was 90 percent complete, according to South Korean daily Joong Ang Ilbo.
Finally, Seoul has jumped on the rail bandwagon, particularly because it is vital to President Kim Dae Jung's long-term goal of transforming South Korea into the chief transshipment hub of East Asia. Kim told a meeting of civil servants Jan. 17 that without rail links to China -- which must run through North Korea -- it would be difficult for South Korean businesses to enter and compete in the Chinese markets.
Pointing out Russia's interest in linking the Korean rail system to the Trans-Siberian Railway, creating a land route for Korean-European trade, Kim said the completed rail links would allow South Korea to "stand as a major commercial area that links Eurasia with the Pacific region and offers new advancement into the vast China market," the Joong Ang Ilbo reported.
Throughout January, talks aimed at restarting the inter-Korean dialogue continued. Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov met Jan. 18 with Pak Ui Chun, North Korean's ambassador to Russia. Less than a week later, South Korean Vice Foreign Minister Choi Sung Hong began a five-day visit to Russia and agreed with his counterpart there to work together on inter-Korean issues, according to Yonhap news agency. Shortly after these meetings, Pyongyang made its offer to restart talks with the South.
There is an urgency now on the part of Seoul, Pyongyang, Moscow and Beijing to push forward with the talks. In the near term, Bush is scheduled to visit South Korea in February as part of an East Asia trip. All sides want to show progress to the president, thus avoiding or at least postponing any possible U.S. action against North Korea.
In the longer term, however, the window of opportunity is rapidly closing on inter-Korean cooperation. South Korea has local elections in June and presidential elections in December. In both polls, the frontrunner is the opposition Grand National Party (GNP), which holds conservative views on North Korea.
The GNP, led by presidential hopeful Lee Hoi Chang, is critical of Kim's Sunshine Policy of strategic engagement toward the North, and opposes further economic concessions to Pyongyang.
Lee consistently leads in early polls for the December elections, in which Kim is constitutionally barred from running for re-election. Pyongyang has itself launched a rhetorical battle against Lee, calling him a "miserable servant" of the United States, a "U.S.-toeing flunkyist," a "traitor" and "sycophant" who has "betrayed the true colors of his human scum, fawning on the U.S. master."
Lee's foreign policies are being considered by other nations as well. In a November 2001 visit to Moscow, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Valentina Matviyenko broached the issue of forgiving Russian debt in return for Moscow's investments in North Korea, an idea Kim had earlier discussed. Lee, however, said debt restructuring is a purely bilateral issue and added that Seoul would no longer take a financial burden from investing in the North, according to South Korean media.
Lee also visited Washington in late January, meeting with U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of State Colin Powell, Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, among others. During the visit, Lee again criticized Kim's North Korean policy.
According to the Korea Herald, he promoted as an alternative policy a process of "reciprocity and verification," a policy to which Washington also subscribes. Under this plan, North Korea would give concessions to prove its willingness to cooperate while allowing international inspectors into its borders.
North Korea is feeling pressured from all sides to restart talks. Lee's growing power in the South has left Pyongyang with little time to take advantage of Kim's more conciliatory policies. Moscow and Beijing are also concerned with Lee's conservative line but look even warier on the potential for North Korea to become another target of Washington's anti-terrorism war.
With Bush in the White House, Lee eyeing the Blue House and Moscow and Beijing fearing U.S. intentions in Northeast Asia, Pyongyang is making an effort to reshape its strategic position and maintain the diplomatic gains it has made in the past few years.