Origins of World War I

author, Steven Carlino

The origins of World War I has been one of the most written about topics in this century. Common wisdom by historians has been that Germany was the specific country at fault. Historians also sight the alliance system and lack of proper diplomacy for the turn to war. I believe World War I was inevitable. A war on the European continent would have occurred by 1916 regardless of the assignation at Sarajevo. Germany was singularly responsible for the Great War. Internal forces within the country moved the country towards conflict during the early 1900's. Even the German military and its chief of staff, Helmuth Von Moltke saw war as being inevitable. During the July crises of 1914, Kaiser Wilhelm II was unable to stop German military plans for an all out European war. The ruling class in Germany, the aristocrats and Junkers, believed risking war would be the only way to resolve internal conflicts within the country.

To understand the long term causes of World War I, an individual most have knowledge of the German unification and Prussian monarchial ascension to the thrown. The next important subject is the complex system of alliance and treaties that were signed throughout the time period. The treaty of central importance is the German-Austrian alliance of 1879. Otto Von Bismarck, the first German chancellor, regarded this as a means to restrain Austrian intentions in the Balkans. The alliance would later turn into an offensive and defensive agreement related to aggression by the common threats posed to both countries. Bismarck’s diplomacy after the achievement of German unification was aimed at maintaining the balance of power in Germany’s favor. Italy joined Germany and Austria in 1882, to form the Triple Alliance. After Bismarck was fired by Kaiser Wilhelm II, in 1890, Germany refused to renew the Reinsurance treaty with Russia.

The beginning of German expansionist sentiment and calls for world power began in 1888, with the ascension of Wilhelm II to the Hohenzollern throne. During the 1890's Germany incorrectly assumed that the imperial rivalries between Britain and France and Britain and Russia were so deep that they could never be overcome. During his time in office Bismarck maintained a precarious balance of power within Europe. German diplomacy was dealt a severe blow by the leadership vacuum created by the void of Bismarck. Wilhelm and Bethmann Hollweg, the new chancellor as of 1907, made numerous miscalculations and diplomacy blunders. During the Boer War years the British made repeated offers to Germany for an alliance.

New treaties by the other powers of Europe caused much concern on the part of the Germans. The Franco-Russian alliance was signed in 1893 to the surprise of the European continent. For years Bismarck worked to keep the two powerful countries from forming an alliance and surrounding the German nation. The English and the French signed a loose arrangement in 1904. This was followed by the Anglo-Russian alliance of 1907.

During the Moroccan crises of 1905, and during the concluding Conference of Algerciarias the Germans would shoot themselves in the foot diplomatically. Under the leadership of Friedreich von Holstein, a senior official of the German foreign office, the Germans looked to place a wedge in between cooperative efforts by Britain and France in regard to imperial problems in Africa. The German government believed that the British and French faced with international opposition over Morocco, would have doubts about the reliability of the other and would seek avenues to gain separate agreements with other countries to seek maximum advantage for themselves. The Kaiser, in a speech in Tangiers on the Moroccan crises made the mistake of stating that Germany would stand up for Moroccan independence. Germany was almost isolotated diplomatically after Algerciaras. At this juncture it was important that the Austrian empire be preserved at all costs. As Germany’s only powerful ally, Austrian policy would be implicitly linked with German action. This isolation would directly lead Europe into a downward spiral towards war.

War planning and the armaments race are both direct long term causes towards war. War planning become a popular topic during the late 1800's and early 1900's. The overall assumption in Europe was that if general war broke out it would be a short war. Every war of the nineteenth century had been short, averaging 1.6 years. War planning during this period was very inflexible. General Alfred Von Schlieffen, Chief of Prussian general staff from 1892 to 1906 created the plans that would be used in the early days of World War I. The Schlieffen plan as it was known, was a plan to fight a two front war against France and Russia. The basis of the plan was to knock out the French within six weeks and then turn attention to Russians who would take longer to mobilize. There were many problems with this plan which would later become evident after war broke out in Europe. These included marching the German army through neutral Belgium which would virtually guarantee a British entry to the war, and leaving Austria open to a Russian attack. The French and Russians had there own plans known as Plan XVII. Schlieffen correctly believed that the longer the Germans wait for war the less their chances would be for winning.

In 1897 Germany began the first steps towards building a large navy to rival the British. The creation of a large German navy in 1904 posed a threat to Britain as a world power. The new need for a dominant German navy was argued by Admiral Alfred Von Tirpitz, who was influenced by Alfred Thayer Mahan’s book, Influence of Sea Power on History. To Germ any this meant in order to become a world power they would need a navy to match the other great fleets of the world. This should have been and was a alarm to other European powers. Germany began the armament race on May 10, 1912, when the Reichstag agreed to increases in land forces and on May 15 adopted a new Navy bill. In 1913 Germany imposed a capital levy of a thousand million marks, which only an anticipated war could justify. While the British continued to build Dreadnoughts at a frantic pace to stay ahead of the competing German navy, the French passed a military reform bill in 1913 which called for three years of required military service instead of two years. In November of 1913 the Russians began major military reform. The Russian army which was still attempting to recover from their embarrassment in the Russo-Japanese war, found help in the form of their new ally France. French monetary loans to Russian would find the Red Army at full strength by 1916. The threat of the Russian army at full strength was a main cause for the Germans to force a war. By 1912 the Germans understood their best chance to win a war versus France and Russian would come at the earliest possible time. Now they would just need an excuse to start a war.

Conflicts in the Balkans have raged for hundreds of years and will continue into the future. Many European observers noted that if a war broke out on the European continent it would be a result of conflict in southeastern Europe. After the First and Second Balkan Wars the Austrians found themselves at odds with an increasingly adversarial Serbia. Since the middle nineteenth century the Austrian Empire realized the problems posed by holding together a multi-ethnic empire. The Habsburg monarchy recognized that Serbia posed a threat because of their influence on the Slavs that lived in the southern portions of the empire. Posed with the prospect of a militant slavdom, Austria decided to begin to take threatening actions toward Serbia. After the annexation of Bosnia, the Austrians moved to make their presence known in the Balkans. For the annual military maneuvers, the Austrians decided to move them from Vienna to Sarajevo to send the Serbs a message. This was a mistake that would lead to the "trigger" of the war

The assignation of Archduke Franz Ferdinand is known as the dominant short term cause to war. While this was the trigger, it was actually the opening the German military had been wishing for. Austria-Hungary was fearful of losing its empire to an uprising of Slavs within the kingdom. To the Austrian military it was now or nothing. They must send a militant message to the Serbs. The German ruling class and military now saw an excuse for war. The intrenched establishment was not content with being a dominant continental European power. The German ruling class and military was more concerned with a grab at world power. Germany was convinced they would compete with Russia, England, and the United States as a dominant global power. Wilhelm was furious over the assignation of the Archduke. On July 5, 1914 he pledged full military support to Austria. Wilhelm told his friend Krupp Von Bohlen, "...if Russia mobilized, I will respond with war."

German war policy was guided by three purposes. First, Germany wanted to push Austria to act forcibly against Serbia. At this point Vienna began to realize they were being wrapped up in a German war. The Austrians only wished to deal with the Serbian issue, not to fight a general war against Russia and France. Surely a loss in the war would end the Habsburg empire. The German and Austrian general staff had a firm belief that their armies would dominate the French and Russians. Chancellor Hollweg was convinced that 1914 was the time to attack while Austria-Hungary still hung together and before Russia completed its armament program.

The second German policy was to make Russia appear as an aggressor. After the assignation of the Archduke the Germans pressed the Austrians to send an ultimatum to the Serbians. The demands in the ultimatum were extremely harsh. The German hope was that the Serbs would refuse the ultimatum and this would give the Austrians an excuse to attack the Serbs. This was a baiting tactic to bring the Russians into the war to defend the Serbs. Russian aggressive actions towards Austria would be the opening to war that the Germans had been searching for. Inexplicitly the Serbs agreed to almost all of the demands in the ultimatum. As the Russians began to mobilize, the Kaiser began to have second thoughts about the timing of the war. Wilhelm would find that the decisions were out of his hands and into the hands of Moltke, chief of Prussian general staff and Conrad Von Hotezendorf, chief of Austrian general staff. On August 5, the Austrians began bombardment of the Serbian city Belgrade.

The third German war policy was to ensure British neutrality. This was an extreme miscalculation on the part of the German government. Germany sent documents to Belgium demanding right of German troops to cross Belgium before the Serbian reply to the Austrian ultimatum. Germany’s attack on Belgium showed their contempt for international law and was symptomatic of their aggressiveness. Belgium had been a neutral country since a treaty in the early 1800's. The entrance of the German army into Belgium was the breaking point for Britain as they decided to enter the war.

Laurence Lafore, author of The Long Fuse, argues that Germany was guilty of planning a world war, but the Russian, French, and British governments conspicuously failed to demonstrate devotion to peace. I find this argument to be untrue. Many historians place some blame on Sir Edward Grey, Britain’s foreign secretary, for not properly negotiating peace. I find this argument to be untrue. Many people believe that the alliance system and failed diplomacy were responsible for causing World War I. All of these arguments are untrue. The ruling class and military in Germany were bent on becoming a world power. Defeating the Russian and French armies would forge Germany into the great continental European power as well as a formidable world power. The actions of the German government and military in the early 1900's were certainly offensive and aggressive. The leading officials in Germany at the time, Kaiser Wilhelm II, Helmuth Von Moltke, and chancellor Bethmann Hollweg, all realized that the time for war was ripe in 1914. If the assignation in Sarajevo had not occurred this triumvirate would have searched or instigated for a different trigger to war. The Germans were mainly concerned with the Russian army. They knew they would have to attack before the Russian rearmament program was completed by 1916, if they were to have a chance of defeating the French and Russians. This is my interpretation of the events and origins leading to the outbreak of World War I. I have not introduced any facts that are unknown or not common. The job of any historian is to interpret historical events and documents. I firmly believe that Germany would have started a great war in Europe by 1916, regardless of any diplomatic actions or declarations for peace by the countries of Europe.