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A Song of Ice and FireA Clash of Kings III / Where would Ice end up? II

Next 20 Messages

labor
User ID: 0798784 May 28th 5:26 PM
Markus
User ID: 8820133
May 28th 4:12 PM
I don't understand why Robb has to into the west when he wants to defeat 5k men who are coming to him at Riverrun (I assume that you also believe that Robb is leaving the westerlands as of now).

As far as I'm concerned, he can stay in the Riverlands for that, indeed, it's only sensible, if he chooses to stay long enough.

As for the eastern force, if Robb should head north before Tywin manages to force battle upon him, well, then Tywin's two forces could either unite or catch him between them, dependent on where he is. Note, the western force would be very mobile.

And if not, if Robb chooses to sit tight in the Riverlands to defend them against Tywin for the time, then he will be trapped, and Tywin's western force will enable his eastern force to cross the Red Fork much more easily.

I certainly think this distribution of his forces would allow Tywin much more tactical flexibility.

Btw, I'm rather uncertain if the riverlords will accompany Robb into the north. You've to consider that if they should do thus, their own lands would be open to Tywin. This would be another reason to send a larger force from the west into the riverlands, thereby avoiding another Red Fork.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

OK, even assuming that the Red Fork was a real thing (which, as everyone knows, I doubt), why can't Tywin just cross at the Crossing, which is undefended at the moment?

Not that I essentially disagree with you, Markus. The Westerlands must be brought back to order, since even when Robb leaves, there surely will be bandits, etc. in his wake. However, I think that 15K will be enough for that and for kicking Robb out if he lingers. Also, hitting Robb from south and west simultaneously was old idea of Tywin's, right? IMHO he is quite likely to try it again, but this time properly.

Not that I

Back 20 Messages

KAH
User ID: 0541004 May 28th 6:03 PM
Markus;

Robb cannot sit put forever - he has limited resources, drawing only on plunder from the West and whatever the devastated Riverlands still can yield.
If Robb goes to Riverrun, and elects to do nothing, Tywin can simply starve him out, IMHO.

The western 5K contingent is not to go in direct clinch with Robb's full power - it's foremostly for proving a threat in his rear, and possibly divert Robb - make him stick around in the Riverlands a bit longer, and not beat the eastern force to the Trident. Maybe draw the Riverlords attention to the west, instead of heading eastwards with Robb.

Pinpricking and jabbing; no more than that - if it indeed becomes a factor at all.

The River lords would not go north, but they would accompany Robb as far as to the Trident, at least.
If Robb can get there (or to the Twins, assuming it's still open to him) before the eastern force, the Riverlords would then return, and Robb would try to get past MC (if he succeeds in that is another question, but that's _his_ head-ache) before he's taken in the rear.

If the eastern force comes first, there'll be battle, and the Riverlords would be interested in helping Robb beat this host, since they die sooner alone, than if fighting together.

That is why it's important that the eastern host is overpowering - it's very likely here the shit will start flying.

I wouldn't count on the two hosts being able to communicate effectively with each other, since this would have to be done with ravens, who will fly all over enemy country, where people will look for ravens with bows in their hands.

Inside this large pocket of land, Robb can move in the direction he likes.
The western host being all cavalry, could possibly manage to squeeze Robb between it and the eastern host, but how to make sure that it is timed correctly?

The cavalry host has to loop around the long way north into the Westerlands, and it's not certain that it will reach Robb's host before the battle in the east is done.

Markus
User ID: 8820133 May 28th 6:15 PM
Tywin could. It depends where he wishes to go.

I'm not alltogether sure, but I think he could then cross the Green Fork (at the Ruby Ford?), whereupon he could march upon Riverrun from the north, if he should wish to.

However, if Robb would rally his forces south of Riverrun, between the Tumblestone and the Red Fork, Tywin might not be all that much better placed, since he would still have to cross a river, the Tumblestone to get at Robb.

I would say that Riverrun's peculiar location certainly seems to be an advantage.

KAH
User ID: 0541004 May 28th 6:26 PM
Well, if Tywin reaches the Trident before Robb has stirred from Riverrun, or come far eastward, the best thing he could do would be to camp not far from the Ruby Ford, and send out his reavers to burn the Riverlands - this time _north_ of the Red Fork.

Sooner or later, Robb would have to come to him - he can't sit it out in Riverrun.
Robb cannot swoop south of the Red Fork, because Tywin can just go back to the Ruby Ford again. Controlling that position would be best, I think, waiting for Robb's next move.

Markus
User ID: 8820133 May 28th 6:44 PM
Kay Arne,

I didn't say Robb would indefinitely stay in Riverrun. He might still be there, however, when Tywin attacks finally.

As for your small western force, I don't see how Tywin could be certain that Robb wouldn't attack it on his own, whatever Tywin would prefer.;)

Really, 5k shouldn't be a serious problem if Robb wishes to clear his back. He has also cavalry, and more than just 5k. It would further open another corridor to escape Tywin. I wouldn't risk this if I were Tywin. There is simply no need.

As for what the riverlords will do, I think it all depends on timing. If they are already threatened from the west by a superior force, they might not even accompany Robb to the Trident, if he should wish to go north at this point.

I really don't see why Tywin should rob himself of a lot of tactical possibilities for the sake of a single moderately better shot at Robb.

Tywin is a seasoned commander, after all, who should be able to beat Robb with any superior force, and further, he isn't dependent upon one battle at this point in the conflict.

Possibly, outnumbering Robb either two or three to one with his eastern force makes a difference, certainly, but in turn, it would rob him of the option to trap Robb between two superior forces, or to force him to split his already inferior army.

And it might also result in another defeat with your pricking force and perhaps even very heavy losses if Robb should force him to cross the Red Fork or the Tumblestone to get at him.

Brady
User ID: 0721754 May 29th 2:16 AM
Just a thought, but if he could capture some ships at Lannisport, is it possible that he could transport part of his force to Seaguard and marh from there? It would cut some time off a long march

KAH
User ID: 0541004 May 29th 5:46 AM
Markus;

If Tywin halts at the Ruby Ford, how is Robb supposed to put a river between himself and the enemy?

If Robb goes immediately eastwards, the western force might well be rendered irrelevant, whatever it's size.

If Robb lingers, the western force, being all cavalry, should not be in immediate danger of being crushed, given it's mobility and a commander with a brain. The times when the other Lannister hosts (Stafford and Jaime's) were obliterated, they were

1) Taken by surprise

2) Led by less-than-optimal commanders

The only time Robb faced an all-cavalry unit (the Whispering Wood), the ambush surrounded it completely, and they had a three to one advantage in numbers. If the western host commander have a bit of intelligence, he won't be caught likewise.
Proper scouting would assure that (as well as realizing what the _disappearance_ of scouts mean).
Sure, Robb might be able to bloody it somewhat, but crush it completely?

What the Riverlords will do, is anyones guess. Were I Tywin, I would plan for the worst scenario - that Edmure choose to accompany Robb westwards, to beat the host in the east.

The point is, time is working for Tywin, now.
Robb will find that his lords are not of endless patience, if he tries to do something fancy.
It's one thing to do so with the wind in your back, but when the tables are turning...

Brady;

We discussed the Lannister fleet a while ago.
It seems that the Lannister fleet isn't very big (before the other coastal lords call their ships at Lannisport as well) - 20-30 ships or thereabouts. I'm not sure how many men that could bring along...

Ran
User ID: 0867924 May 29th 5:59 AM
Twenty-thirty warships, and then of course there's whatever fishing craft, merchant vessels, etc. I don't think he could pack five thousand men and horses into the lot, but I could see him sending a portion away under those conditions.

If it happens that he does that, though, I fully expect for him to learn near the end of the book that the whole fleet was sunk by Greyjoy ships prowling the sea.

labor
User ID: 0798784 May 29th 6:31 AM
Yes, wouldn't Robb have to take Lannisport first to get at the ships? And I don't think that it would be an easy feat for the maximum 6-7K horse that he has, without the time to construct some serious siege machinery.
I mean, unlike the citizens of KL, citizens of Lannisport would have high motivation to resist him and since we have often heard how rich a city and what a center of craftsmanship Lannisport is, it is sure to be quite strongly walled and well-defended as cities go. After all, the Westerlands likely were the preffered raiding grounds of the Ironborn in the past. I am sure that Tywin took the lessons of Greyjoy's rebellion to heart, too.

And besides, the Ironborn ships prowl the seas. I don't see how anyone could get beyond them without the trained experienced crews and on so few ships. Otherwise, the Lannisport ships, whatever ships he took at the Crag(or other castles lying on the sea) and whatever ships are at Seagard could have been Robb's ticket north...

It wouldn't surprise me, if the Lannisters use their ships to raid Seagard at some point, though... Preferably when all the River Lords will be assembled south to oppose the Lannister-Tyrell host. And assuming there is some agreement between the Lannisters and the Ironborn.

Markus
User ID: 8820133 May 29th 7:42 AM
I would agree that Robb shouldn't have a realistic chance to bypass Moat Cailin by sea.

Kay-Arne,

as for how Robb could place a river between himself and Tywin, look at the map. If Tywin gets north of the Red Fork via the Ruby Ford, he would still have to cross the Tumblestone if Robb is clever. And if he tries to cross the Red Fork south of Riverrun, we know what could happen.

I also think you are too optimistic in regard to what could happen to Tywin's 5k strong force. Consider, Robb has 3-4 times this number, and 2 times the cavalry. He could certainly defeat such a force in my opinion if he should choose to.

I agree that the larger western force might not come into conflict with Robb's forces which might head north, yes. But what does this matter?

For once, Robb would still be outnumbered by Tywin

And further, the riverlords might also decide that they need every man to defend themselves against such a force, instead of accompanying Robb, thereby splitting Robb's already inferior army.

And even if not, this force would still be a threat to Robb, a threat which could be used to surround him, preventing an escape, or which might even be joined to the eastern force before Tywin decides to attack Robb.

The point is, Tywin has much more tactical options if he should threaten Robb from two sides with superior forces. That's worth more than having one (possible) moderately better shot at Robb in my view.

Padraig
User ID: 9377263 May 29th 2:16 PM
There seems to be an idea here that Robb will go north. I really can't see Robb abandoning the Riverlords. If he knew they would get a decent deal then he may but I don't think he would expect much from Tywin. They have pledged their loyalty to him and it would be dishonourble to leave them be wiped off the face of the planet by the Lannisters. Especially the Tullys. I could see Tywin accepting other lords surrender but Edmure and company? It would be wiser to abandon them of course but wisdom aften has little to do with honour. Other northern lords will want to leave but Robb is their sworn leige and he will expect them to obey. I'm back thinking Robb will follow Ned's sad path.

Nynaeve
User ID: 2345204 May 29th 6:59 PM
I also believe that Robb will somehow be captured by Tylin in battle and put to death. Somehow, I also don't believe Jaime will be spending the whole of the next book as a hostage/prisoner. I'm not sure what Catelyn did to him in ACoK's cliffhanger, but I do believe he will be set free next book which will give the Lannisters every freedom to kill Robb and put him out of the way forever.

Nyn

labor
User ID: 0798784 May 29th 7:20 PM
Padraig, Tywin certainly is pitiless, but IMHO the Tyrells won't allow him to follow his prefferred course of "spikes, heads, walls". You will notice, that everyone who was captured at the Blackwater, pleaded forgivness and swore oaths of fealty to Joff, was forgiven.

Based on that, I'd say that there certainly is a hope of survival for the River Lords if they bend the knee before they are soundly defeated. I also think that Tywin will want the dangerous people dead or on the Wall - i.e. Robb, Brynden, Lord Jason Mallister, perhaps Lord Tytos Blackwood, "Beric Dondarrion" etc. Edmure, he might well spare, because Edmure isn't a serious threat. OTOH, Edmure will be stripped of the overlordship of the Trident for sure and he will most likely prefer death to having to kneel in hommage to Petyr Baelish...
I'd say that it would be only prudent for the people named above to accompany Robb north. Yes, they will lose their lands (although their heirs might stay and swear to Joff), but they will keep their heads.

Brady
User ID: 0721754 May 29th 8:31 PM
Edmure, and a few of the other river lords like Marq Piper and Karyl Vance are hotheaded and filled with honor and hatred for the Lannisters. I think that they would refuse to bend knee, and be killed, as would Mallister and the Blackfish for the threat they represent.

KAH
User ID: 0541004 May 30th 5:06 AM
Markus;

I looked at the map, and found that maybe it would be prudent to revise the plan - frankly, I'm not sure if sending even as much as 5K up into the West would not be a waste - the distance this host would have to cover is much, much greater than the distance from KL to the Ruby ford...or from Riverrun to the Twins, for that matter.

Seems to me that it would very likely be a tactical waste, unless Robb lingers unseemingly long, and I don't know why Tywin would chance on that.

Once Tywin has gained the position at the Ruby ford, I can't see how Robb can put a river between himself and Tywin _and_ go in the right direction at the same time. The Tumblestone only provides protection if Tywin should come to Robb, not vice versa.
Going towards the Twins or Seagard leaves Robb wide open for interception.

If anything, I think Tywin would rather take his 50K to the Ruby ford, and then make his tactical dispositions from there, depending exactly on what Robb does.

Markus
User ID: 8820133 May 30th 6:54 AM
Robb isn't heading north yet, though. He is still in the westerlands. And even if he should head north before Tywin stirrs (or at all), nobody guarantees Tywin that all the riverlords will be with him. Again, the point of two superior forces is a much greater tactical flexibility without to lose the numerical superiority of the eastern force.

As for the longer distance, it's all road. A cavalry unit could make good time, and Tywin could send them away before the eastern force. I also don't think that Tywin would endlessly wait for Robb when he has the better position and momentum.

KAH
User ID: 0541004 May 30th 8:16 AM
Markus;

If Robb and the Riverlords do not join forces against the eastern host, both factions will fall all the sooner.

Moreover, tactical flexibility can be easily achieved without sending cavalry the long way around - simply send a part of the host to threaten the fords along the Red Fork.

If Robb and Edmure do not defend the fords, this host would threaten Robb's rear, if he stays north of the Red Fork.
If they do guard them, this host will bind up at least 10K, considering that Edmure cannot know where the Lannisters might attack.

Either way, it proves the better solution than sending them into the west first, IMHO.
I'm not convinced that the western force would come around quickly enough, road or not.

Tywin needs not wait endlessly, because _Robb_ can't sit put forever.
Rather, Robb's chances to survive improves the faster he can get going. Both Robb and Tywin should acknowledge that.
Of course, Tywin has proved willingness to sit tight quite a while, if he thought it would pay. (i.e. Harrenhal)

Markus
User ID: 8820133 May 30th 8:39 AM
If Tywin thinks sending a force by way of the Rock and the Tooth wouldn't be fast enough for his purposes, he could certainly split his forces in the way you suggest: a part to attack across the Red Fork south of Riverrun, and a part to attack out of the north of the Red Fork.

It's obviously not as good a position as already being west of the Red Fork, south of Riverrun, but it's better than only one force.

As for what Robb would do: I'm rather dubious if Robb would play into Tywin's hands by attacking him when he is clearly outnumbered by Tywin, assuming Tywin could catch Robb before he has left the Riverlands.

Heading north before Tywin is in the Riverlands seems wise, but attacking more than two times his numbers led by Tywin Lannister to fight his way to yet another fight at Moat Cailin might not be the best possible course.

Moreover, Tywin has the upper hand now, and the greater numbers too, thus it would be expected that he takes the offensive, and really attacks Robb to end the war, instead of just waiting for him.

I also don't think Tywin would want it be said that he is afraid to face the Young Wolf in open battle. Tywin is vain.;)

Cinis the Degenerate
User ID: 2149564 May 30th 9:38 AM
Tylin, Nyn? What, you think she's going to rape Robb as well as Mat? :)

Ser Benjen
User ID: 2122084 May 30th 9:40 AM
I really don't think Robb has much choice as far as whether to return North or not. I think he would face drastic disertions if he did not attempt to return North to re-claim his own homeland. It would be suicide to try to remain in the West for too long, especially after he and his lords learn about the Lannister - Tyrell alliance. GRRM said (admittedly about another topic) in mail #37 in the SSM collection, that "a leader who wanted to fight on till the last drop of blood might well have found himself fighting on alone".

I don't think he'll come out of the West the way he came in. I think he's gone far enough West were he can return to Riverrun by following the Tumblestone and avoid the Golden Tooth entirely.

Depending on what he learns at Riverrun (concerning the Freys specifically) he may attempt to return North using the Twins, and that is could come to a bad end.

Or he could hug the Western Coast and then, upon reaching Flint's finger, proceed up the Saltspear to the Fever River. There he could take out the ships of the Ironmen and perhaps retake Moat Cailin.

I find that scenario doubtful though. Because Robb would be leaving the Riverlands out to dry, and I think he'll be hesitant to do that.

I could see the Freys allowing a Lannister force to cross the Green fork at the Twins, then when Tywin makes his move on the Red Fork, they could sweep down and hit Robb from the rear. Ouch.

Next 20 Messages

labor User ID: 0798784	May 28th 5:26 PM Markus User ID: 8820133 May 28th 4:12 PM I don't understand why Robb has to into the west when he wants to defeat 5k men who are coming to him at Riverrun (I assume that you also believe that Robb is leaving the westerlands as of now). As far as I'm concerned, he can stay in the Riverlands for that, indeed, it's only sensible, if he chooses to stay long enough. As for the eastern force, if Robb should head north before Tywin manages to force battle upon him, well, then Tywin's two forces could either unite or catch him between them, dependent on where he is. Note, the western force would be very mobile. And if not, if Robb chooses to sit tight in the Riverlands to defend them against Tywin for the time, then he will be trapped, and Tywin's western force will enable his eastern force to cross the Red Fork much more easily. I certainly think this distribution of his forces would allow Tywin much more tactical flexibility. Btw, I'm rather uncertain if the riverlords will accompany Robb into the north. You've to consider that if they should do thus, their own lands would be open to Tywin. This would be another reason to send a larger force from the west into the riverlands, thereby avoiding another Red Fork. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- OK, even assuming that the Red Fork was a real thing (which, as everyone knows, I doubt), why can't Tywin just cross at the Crossing, which is undefended at the moment? Not that I essentially disagree with you, Markus. The Westerlands must be brought back to order, since even when Robb leaves, there surely will be bandits, etc. in his wake. However, I think that 15K will be enough for that and for kicking Robb out if he lingers. Also, hitting Robb from south and west simultaneously was old idea of Tywin's, right? IMHO he is quite likely to try it again, but this time properly. Not that I Back 20 Messages
KAH User ID: 0541004	May 28th 6:03 PM Markus; Robb cannot sit put forever - he has limited resources, drawing only on plunder from the West and whatever the devastated Riverlands still can yield. If Robb goes to Riverrun, and elects to do nothing, Tywin can simply starve him out, IMHO. The western 5K contingent is not to go in direct clinch with Robb's full power - it's foremostly for proving a threat in his rear, and possibly divert Robb - make him stick around in the Riverlands a bit longer, and not beat the eastern force to the Trident. Maybe draw the Riverlords attention to the west, instead of heading eastwards with Robb. Pinpricking and jabbing; no more than that - if it indeed becomes a factor at all. The River lords would not go north, but they would accompany Robb as far as to the Trident, at least. If Robb can get there (or to the Twins, assuming it's still open to him) before the eastern force, the Riverlords would then return, and Robb would try to get past MC (if he succeeds in that is another question, but that's _his_ head-ache) before he's taken in the rear. If the eastern force comes first, there'll be battle, and the Riverlords would be interested in helping Robb beat this host, since they die sooner alone, than if fighting together. That is why it's important that the eastern host is overpowering - it's very likely here the shit will start flying. I wouldn't count on the two hosts being able to communicate effectively with each other, since this would have to be done with ravens, who will fly all over enemy country, where people will look for ravens with bows in their hands. Inside this large pocket of land, Robb can move in the direction he likes. The western host being all cavalry, could possibly manage to squeeze Robb between it and the eastern host, but how to make sure that it is timed correctly? The cavalry host has to loop around the long way north into the Westerlands, and it's not certain that it will reach Robb's host before the battle in the east is done.
Markus User ID: 8820133	May 28th 6:15 PM Tywin could. It depends where he wishes to go. I'm not alltogether sure, but I think he could then cross the Green Fork (at the Ruby Ford?), whereupon he could march upon Riverrun from the north, if he should wish to. However, if Robb would rally his forces south of Riverrun, between the Tumblestone and the Red Fork, Tywin might not be all that much better placed, since he would still have to cross a river, the Tumblestone to get at Robb. I would say that Riverrun's peculiar location certainly seems to be an advantage.
KAH User ID: 0541004	May 28th 6:26 PM Well, if Tywin reaches the Trident before Robb has stirred from Riverrun, or come far eastward, the best thing he could do would be to camp not far from the Ruby Ford, and send out his reavers to burn the Riverlands - this time _north_ of the Red Fork. Sooner or later, Robb would have to come to him - he can't sit it out in Riverrun. Robb cannot swoop south of the Red Fork, because Tywin can just go back to the Ruby Ford again. Controlling that position would be best, I think, waiting for Robb's next move.
Markus User ID: 8820133	May 28th 6:44 PM Kay Arne, I didn't say Robb would indefinitely stay in Riverrun. He might still be there, however, when Tywin attacks finally. As for your small western force, I don't see how Tywin could be certain that Robb wouldn't attack it on his own, whatever Tywin would prefer.;) Really, 5k shouldn't be a serious problem if Robb wishes to clear his back. He has also cavalry, and more than just 5k. It would further open another corridor to escape Tywin. I wouldn't risk this if I were Tywin. There is simply no need. As for what the riverlords will do, I think it all depends on timing. If they are already threatened from the west by a superior force, they might not even accompany Robb to the Trident, if he should wish to go north at this point. I really don't see why Tywin should rob himself of a lot of tactical possibilities for the sake of a single moderately better shot at Robb. Tywin is a seasoned commander, after all, who should be able to beat Robb with any superior force, and further, he isn't dependent upon one battle at this point in the conflict. Possibly, outnumbering Robb either two or three to one with his eastern force makes a difference, certainly, but in turn, it would rob him of the option to trap Robb between two superior forces, or to force him to split his already inferior army. And it might also result in another defeat with your pricking force and perhaps even very heavy losses if Robb should force him to cross the Red Fork or the Tumblestone to get at him.
Brady User ID: 0721754	May 29th 2:16 AM Just a thought, but if he could capture some ships at Lannisport, is it possible that he could transport part of his force to Seaguard and marh from there? It would cut some time off a long march
KAH User ID: 0541004	May 29th 5:46 AM Markus; If Tywin halts at the Ruby Ford, how is Robb supposed to put a river between himself and the enemy? If Robb goes immediately eastwards, the western force might well be rendered irrelevant, whatever it's size. If Robb lingers, the western force, being all cavalry, should not be in immediate danger of being crushed, given it's mobility and a commander with a brain. The times when the other Lannister hosts (Stafford and Jaime's) were obliterated, they were 1) Taken by surprise 2) Led by less-than-optimal commanders The only time Robb faced an all-cavalry unit (the Whispering Wood), the ambush surrounded it completely, and they had a three to one advantage in numbers. If the western host commander have a bit of intelligence, he won't be caught likewise. Proper scouting would assure that (as well as realizing what the _disappearance_ of scouts mean). Sure, Robb might be able to bloody it somewhat, but crush it completely? What the Riverlords will do, is anyones guess. Were I Tywin, I would plan for the worst scenario - that Edmure choose to accompany Robb westwards, to beat the host in the east. The point is, time is working for Tywin, now. Robb will find that his lords are not of endless patience, if he tries to do something fancy. It's one thing to do so with the wind in your back, but when the tables are turning... Brady; We discussed the Lannister fleet a while ago. It seems that the Lannister fleet isn't very big (before the other coastal lords call their ships at Lannisport as well) - 20-30 ships or thereabouts. I'm not sure how many men that could bring along...
Ran User ID: 0867924	May 29th 5:59 AM Twenty-thirty warships, and then of course there's whatever fishing craft, merchant vessels, etc. I don't think he could pack five thousand men and horses into the lot, but I could see him sending a portion away under those conditions. If it happens that he does that, though, I fully expect for him to learn near the end of the book that the whole fleet was sunk by Greyjoy ships prowling the sea.
labor User ID: 0798784	May 29th 6:31 AM Yes, wouldn't Robb have to take Lannisport first to get at the ships? And I don't think that it would be an easy feat for the maximum 6-7K horse that he has, without the time to construct some serious siege machinery. I mean, unlike the citizens of KL, citizens of Lannisport would have high motivation to resist him and since we have often heard how rich a city and what a center of craftsmanship Lannisport is, it is sure to be quite strongly walled and well-defended as cities go. After all, the Westerlands likely were the preffered raiding grounds of the Ironborn in the past. I am sure that Tywin took the lessons of Greyjoy's rebellion to heart, too. And besides, the Ironborn ships prowl the seas. I don't see how anyone could get beyond them without the trained experienced crews and on so few ships. Otherwise, the Lannisport ships, whatever ships he took at the Crag(or other castles lying on the sea) and whatever ships are at Seagard could have been Robb's ticket north... It wouldn't surprise me, if the Lannisters use their ships to raid Seagard at some point, though... Preferably when all the River Lords will be assembled south to oppose the Lannister-Tyrell host. And assuming there is some agreement between the Lannisters and the Ironborn.
Markus User ID: 8820133	May 29th 7:42 AM I would agree that Robb shouldn't have a realistic chance to bypass Moat Cailin by sea. Kay-Arne, as for how Robb could place a river between himself and Tywin, look at the map. If Tywin gets north of the Red Fork via the Ruby Ford, he would still have to cross the Tumblestone if Robb is clever. And if he tries to cross the Red Fork south of Riverrun, we know what could happen. I also think you are too optimistic in regard to what could happen to Tywin's 5k strong force. Consider, Robb has 3-4 times this number, and 2 times the cavalry. He could certainly defeat such a force in my opinion if he should choose to. I agree that the larger western force might not come into conflict with Robb's forces which might head north, yes. But what does this matter? For once, Robb would still be outnumbered by Tywin And further, the riverlords might also decide that they need every man to defend themselves against such a force, instead of accompanying Robb, thereby splitting Robb's already inferior army. And even if not, this force would still be a threat to Robb, a threat which could be used to surround him, preventing an escape, or which might even be joined to the eastern force before Tywin decides to attack Robb. The point is, Tywin has much more tactical options if he should threaten Robb from two sides with superior forces. That's worth more than having one (possible) moderately better shot at Robb in my view.
Padraig User ID: 9377263	May 29th 2:16 PM There seems to be an idea here that Robb will go north. I really can't see Robb abandoning the Riverlords. If he knew they would get a decent deal then he may but I don't think he would expect much from Tywin. They have pledged their loyalty to him and it would be dishonourble to leave them be wiped off the face of the planet by the Lannisters. Especially the Tullys. I could see Tywin accepting other lords surrender but Edmure and company? It would be wiser to abandon them of course but wisdom aften has little to do with honour. Other northern lords will want to leave but Robb is their sworn leige and he will expect them to obey. I'm back thinking Robb will follow Ned's sad path.
Nynaeve User ID: 2345204	May 29th 6:59 PM I also believe that Robb will somehow be captured by Tylin in battle and put to death. Somehow, I also don't believe Jaime will be spending the whole of the next book as a hostage/prisoner. I'm not sure what Catelyn did to him in ACoK's cliffhanger, but I do believe he will be set free next book which will give the Lannisters every freedom to kill Robb and put him out of the way forever. Nyn
labor User ID: 0798784	May 29th 7:20 PM Padraig, Tywin certainly is pitiless, but IMHO the Tyrells won't allow him to follow his prefferred course of "spikes, heads, walls". You will notice, that everyone who was captured at the Blackwater, pleaded forgivness and swore oaths of fealty to Joff, was forgiven. Based on that, I'd say that there certainly is a hope of survival for the River Lords if they bend the knee before they are soundly defeated. I also think that Tywin will want the dangerous people dead or on the Wall - i.e. Robb, Brynden, Lord Jason Mallister, perhaps Lord Tytos Blackwood, "Beric Dondarrion" etc. Edmure, he might well spare, because Edmure isn't a serious threat. OTOH, Edmure will be stripped of the overlordship of the Trident for sure and he will most likely prefer death to having to kneel in hommage to Petyr Baelish... I'd say that it would be only prudent for the people named above to accompany Robb north. Yes, they will lose their lands (although their heirs might stay and swear to Joff), but they will keep their heads.
Brady User ID: 0721754	May 29th 8:31 PM Edmure, and a few of the other river lords like Marq Piper and Karyl Vance are hotheaded and filled with honor and hatred for the Lannisters. I think that they would refuse to bend knee, and be killed, as would Mallister and the Blackfish for the threat they represent.
KAH User ID: 0541004	May 30th 5:06 AM Markus; I looked at the map, and found that maybe it would be prudent to revise the plan - frankly, I'm not sure if sending even as much as 5K up into the West would not be a waste - the distance this host would have to cover is much, much greater than the distance from KL to the Ruby ford...or from Riverrun to the Twins, for that matter. Seems to me that it would very likely be a tactical waste, unless Robb lingers unseemingly long, and I don't know why Tywin would chance on that. Once Tywin has gained the position at the Ruby ford, I can't see how Robb can put a river between himself and Tywin _and_ go in the right direction at the same time. The Tumblestone only provides protection if Tywin should come to Robb, not vice versa. Going towards the Twins or Seagard leaves Robb wide open for interception. If anything, I think Tywin would rather take his 50K to the Ruby ford, and then make his tactical dispositions from there, depending exactly on what Robb does.
Markus User ID: 8820133	May 30th 6:54 AM Robb isn't heading north yet, though. He is still in the westerlands. And even if he should head north before Tywin stirrs (or at all), nobody guarantees Tywin that all the riverlords will be with him. Again, the point of two superior forces is a much greater tactical flexibility without to lose the numerical superiority of the eastern force. As for the longer distance, it's all road. A cavalry unit could make good time, and Tywin could send them away before the eastern force. I also don't think that Tywin would endlessly wait for Robb when he has the better position and momentum.
KAH User ID: 0541004	May 30th 8:16 AM Markus; If Robb and the Riverlords do not join forces against the eastern host, both factions will fall all the sooner. Moreover, tactical flexibility can be easily achieved without sending cavalry the long way around - simply send a part of the host to threaten the fords along the Red Fork. If Robb and Edmure do not defend the fords, this host would threaten Robb's rear, if he stays north of the Red Fork. If they do guard them, this host will bind up at least 10K, considering that Edmure cannot know where the Lannisters might attack. Either way, it proves the better solution than sending them into the west first, IMHO. I'm not convinced that the western force would come around quickly enough, road or not. Tywin needs not wait endlessly, because _Robb_ can't sit put forever. Rather, Robb's chances to survive improves the faster he can get going. Both Robb and Tywin should acknowledge that. Of course, Tywin has proved willingness to sit tight quite a while, if he thought it would pay. (i.e. Harrenhal)
Markus User ID: 8820133	May 30th 8:39 AM If Tywin thinks sending a force by way of the Rock and the Tooth wouldn't be fast enough for his purposes, he could certainly split his forces in the way you suggest: a part to attack across the Red Fork south of Riverrun, and a part to attack out of the north of the Red Fork. It's obviously not as good a position as already being west of the Red Fork, south of Riverrun, but it's better than only one force. As for what Robb would do: I'm rather dubious if Robb would play into Tywin's hands by attacking him when he is clearly outnumbered by Tywin, assuming Tywin could catch Robb before he has left the Riverlands. Heading north before Tywin is in the Riverlands seems wise, but attacking more than two times his numbers led by Tywin Lannister to fight his way to yet another fight at Moat Cailin might not be the best possible course. Moreover, Tywin has the upper hand now, and the greater numbers too, thus it would be expected that he takes the offensive, and really attacks Robb to end the war, instead of just waiting for him. I also don't think Tywin would want it be said that he is afraid to face the Young Wolf in open battle. Tywin is vain.;)
Cinis the Degenerate User ID: 2149564	May 30th 9:38 AM Tylin, Nyn? What, you think she's going to rape Robb as well as Mat? :)
Ser Benjen User ID: 2122084	May 30th 9:40 AM I really don't think Robb has much choice as far as whether to return North or not. I think he would face drastic disertions if he did not attempt to return North to re-claim his own homeland. It would be suicide to try to remain in the West for too long, especially after he and his lords learn about the Lannister - Tyrell alliance. GRRM said (admittedly about another topic) in mail #37 in the SSM collection, that "a leader who wanted to fight on till the last drop of blood might well have found himself fighting on alone". I don't think he'll come out of the West the way he came in. I think he's gone far enough West were he can return to Riverrun by following the Tumblestone and avoid the Golden Tooth entirely. Depending on what he learns at Riverrun (concerning the Freys specifically) he may attempt to return North using the Twins, and that is could come to a bad end. Or he could hug the Western Coast and then, upon reaching Flint's finger, proceed up the Saltspear to the Fever River. There he could take out the ships of the Ironmen and perhaps retake Moat Cailin. I find that scenario doubtful though. Because Robb would be leaving the Riverlands out to dry, and I think he'll be hesitant to do that. I could see the Freys allowing a Lannister force to cross the Green fork at the Twins, then when Tywin makes his move on the Red Fork, they could sweep down and hit Robb from the rear. Ouch.