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A Song of Ice and Fire / A Clash of Kings III / The Sack of KL - a different look?

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labor
User ID: 0798784 Jun 15th 1:05 PM
In the past, I have posted some ideas concerning the Lannisters reasons for the Sack and Jaime's reasons for the murder of Aerys. The majority here thinks that Jaime's reasons were arrogance, bloodthirstyness or simple opportunism and that the Lannisters made a straightforward bloody grab for the crown and just didn't care how they would look to everyone. IMHO their own explanation that they did it to get on Robert's good side is as fake as they come. But here is an alternative explanation...

First, a few facts:

1. Dany's vision in the House of Undying: "Upon a towering barbed throne sat an old man in rich robes, an old man with dark eyes and long silver-grey hair. "Let him be king over charred bone and cooked meat", he said to a man below him. "Let him be the king of ashes".

2. There were 2 strange caches of wildfire found purely by accident - under the Sept of Baelor, discovered a few years prior to the beginning of the series and under the Dragonpit, discovered in ACOK that apparently no one, not even Varys, knew about.

3. During the Sack the Lannister troops hit the Alchemist's guild very hard. Yet for what reason? No westermen were slowly roasted alive as far as we heard and why should Tywin particulary care about Aerys's pets?

4. "Tywin Lannister was as much fox as lion"

To this I would like to add a few logical (IMHO) ruminations:
a. Wasn't it fairly obvious that after the murder of the royal family the Lannisters would have to contend for the crown with Tully-Arryn-Stark-Baratheon alliance and with the loyalists, i.e. Tyrells, both, and likely at the same time?

b.Weren't the murders of Elia and Rhaenys somewhat counter-productive if Tywin's goal was to gain and to keep the control of the crown? Marriage of Jaime to Rhaenys and himself or yet another Lannister to Elia would have strengthened their claim to the Iron Throne from everything we have seen so far in ASOIAF (i.e. Orys Baratheon and the Storm King's daughter , Lady Hornwood, and Theon's thoughts about the Stark girls all being points in case).

c. Since Aerys's murder took place in the Throne Hall it stands to reason that he was attended by more people than just Jaime.

My explanation:

The Lannisters had a fairly sophisticated plan for the power grab that allowed for Jaime's survival (otherwise it would be pretty easy) and which went horribly awry.

I think that from 1,2 and 3 it follows that Aerys had a plan to reduce the KL to ashes via wildfire rather than allow Robert, or anyone else, have it. The secret stashes of wildfire were made throughout the city to ensure a nice, even burning.

3. strongly suggests that the Lannisters were aware of Aerys's plan, but didn't know the locations of the stashes and possibly were unsure about whether the stashes have been already distributed or not.
That means, that their only hope to forestall the conflagration once their true goals became clear to the public, was to prevent Aerys from giving a signal. Given c., only Jaime was in position to do so and only death would suffice, especially since given the slightest chance to escape, Aerys could use his superior knowledge of the Red Keep's secrets.

And once the clear, unfakeable, irrevocable proof of Aerys's terminal madness - i.e. the stashes of wildfire, was produced, the Lannisters revealed as "saviours of the city" and Prince Aegon made the king in name, would even the loyalists stand against the Lannisters? Or would they (the Tyrells and the Royal Fleet) rather breathe with relief and join the Lannisters against the usurper's alliance? Lannister marriages to Elia and Rhaenys and freeing Jaime from his Kingsguard's vows would be seen as no more than their due. And as to Aegon, with Pycelle in Tywin's pocket he could be easily disposed of at an opportune moment (for example after the victory over Robert) and we know that Tywin is patient.

But two very important things went wrong:

First, when the dust settled, the Lannisters noticed that in their fear of being cooked alive, they have been overzealous and that all the people who could direct them to the stashes were killed. OTOH, without the open demonstration of the stashes, there could be no overlooking of the treachery and of the kingslaying and no loyalist support (in the best case).

Secondly, Ned was at the gates earlier than expected, just as implications of the above failure began to sink in. Lannisters had to chose between making the bid for the crown on their own with the alliance forces already at the gates, or submitting to Robert.
But, (and that's pure speculation on my part, I know), the secret marriages of Elia and Rhaenys to the Lannisters have been already carried out! So, in order for the Lannisters to be able to credibly deny their true goals and to be sure of never being discovered, Elia and Rhaenys had to die. Aegon was killed together with them for the authencity's sake.

Why didn't the Lannisters ever mention wanting to save KL from wildfire? Because after everything that happened and without proof everyone such a claim would be laughed at.

What do you think?

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Jun 15th 2:43 PM
I was with you all the way, labor, until the suggestion that Elia and Rhaenys were secretly married to Tywin and Jaime. That one was ... I don't know, a big leap. It's a definite entry into the annals of looney theories. ;)

labor
User ID: 0798784 Jun 15th 4:15 PM
Well, Ran, I just try to find a half-logical reason for their murders ;). I, mean, however I look at it, it was a STOOPID thing to do, and Tywin is no man's fool.

Targaryen loyalists would have, most likely forgiven him and Jaime Aerys's death (if they could convincingly demonstrate the necessity), but not this. He'd have to fight Robert et al., anyway, why make possible supporters the Tyrells (and Martells) into enemies on the top of it?

And why bother even with Aegon, when Pycelle could have removed him in time in a quiet and "natural" way without severly blotting Lannister honor?

My other theory was that Tywin knew about Rhaegar's prophecy and thus considered the children dangerous, but again, why remove them immediately rather than a bit later, but in the less compromising ways?

And of course, the Lannisters did need _some_ sort of formal claim to the throne (even William the Conqueror had one) and marriage to a Targaryen would have provided that.

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Jun 15th 4:26 PM
I'm not very sure that the Tyrells would rush to fight the Lannisters. 'specially if Tywin offered Cersei's hand to Lord Mace's heir. The Martells are another matter, of course.

I'm not really certain that Tywin's goal was truly taking the crown for himself. Pycelle says it, but I'm not sure if I believe that he was privy to Tywin's thoughts. Tywin's goal, I think, is easier and more brutal: he'll bend the knee, fine, but he'll make damned sure that there's no Targaryens at hand to crop up later and cause more havoc, ruining whatever designs he himself had.

He's pragmatic. Targaryens are a threat to Robert's new throne, and with Cersei wed to Robert, that means it's likely to become a threat to the Lannister throne in future years when things come to fruition.

The fact that he made himself unpopular does not matter. Tywin clearly believes that it's better to be feared and hated than loved. And I can't say he's really wrong, given his successes.

Anon
User ID: 0464054 Jun 15th 5:05 PM
I don't know. Sometimes I think Tywin is given more respect than he deserves.

I don't think Tywin was on the best of terms with Rhaegar though. Why did he gave up as Hand? And what led to Jaime being appointed as a White Sword?

labor
User ID: 0798784 Jun 15th 5:48 PM
But, but... Robert's marriage to Cersei was arranged after the war and after Lyanna's death, _and_ there were two more Targaryens on the Dragonstone. So, your explanation doesn't work on several levels.

I also don't think that Tywin was all that happy with the idea of bending knee to some rash and stupid boy who already had his own entourage all picked out. What would he gain? And why, when he could take the greater prize if he was clever enough? He is and was ambitious and that was the golden opportunity.

And again, if, apart from saving Jaime, it was all for Robert (which is phony, IMHO), why would Tywin dirty his hands and reputation with the deaths of Elia and her children?
It isn't like he could get all Targaryens in one stroke anyway, not with Rhaella and Viserys on Dragonstone. So, what did Tywin gain by presenting Robert with the bodies rather than with the live prisoners? Other than hatred and contempt from the majority of the other nobility, that is. Fear? I am sure that after the Tarbeck and Reyne affair and after having been Hand for 20 years, Tywin was both feared and respected. After the Sack, he was feared and despised...

And if Tywin did want to try for the crown (and there certainly is corroborating evidence for that), then: the Tyrells - if it was just them and Tywin, they might have desisted. But Tywin would have to fight Robert first and they would have an option to fall on him when he was weakened. As to Cersei's hand - well, the Tyrells could have married Marge to Viserys and supported him for the throne. No need to bow to the Lannisters and share power with them at all.

And why, WHY not strengthen the Lannister claim to the throne in an appropriate and simple manner of marriage? Why willingly give ammunition to everyone who'd want to oppose the Lannister rule?

Besides, while Tywin is no Varys, we have seen that he doesn't always bludgeon when he doesn't have to, nor is he completely indifferent to the public opinion. What you propose just doesn't jibe with MO of someone who tried to provoke the Tullys into starting a war, who instantly recognized the drawbacks of retiring Barristan and who tried to persuade Lord Manderly into removing his support from Robb. IMHO all these are actions of a man who is quite subtle when he wants to and who understands that public opinions and appearances do matter to some degree.

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Jun 15th 6:11 PM
Eh, labor, I thought we were talking if the Lannisters tried to claim the thrones for themselves. Under what conditions would the Tyrells attack them if they did _not_ take the throne, but simply killed the Targaryens?

I can see Tywin intending to marry off Elia and her daughter as appropriate to secure the throne, if that was his intent (I've become less and less convinced on this point.) I cannot see his having _already_ married them, however. He's barely even consolidated his hold on KL. He's got Ned Stark and Robert Baratheon to deal with.

Indeed, it was obvious that once word arrived that Robert had won, any plans for the throne were kaput. I mean, he entered in and started sacking the city immediately -- why do that if he planned to come in as beneficient new king?

As I recall, I had argued long ago for Jaime having been aware of Aerys's plans concerning the wildfire and that mitigating (a little bit) his actions, but that after that they found that they didn't know where the caches were and so had no hard proof. Better to accept the kingdom's despite than to make ineffectual, unsupportable claims to being a savior.

In any case, I think it worked well enough. If Tywin had his eyes on the throne in the future, the first step was to recognize reality and give his fealty to Robert -- there just wasn't any way his green troops could outfight the veteran allied forces.

Then the second step was to clear the way for the easiest, most predictable time of it. That meant nixing as many Targaryens as possible (and hoping Robert handled the Queen and the children -- I don't doubt he was urging Robert to send assassins while Jon Arryn did the exact opposite.) It also meant marrying Cersei to Robert, to make a new tie to the throne.

In any case, if you want to say that Tywin was planning to marry Elia, rather than already married her, I can buy that.

labor
User ID: 0798784 Jun 15th 6:53 PM
Ran, I beg to differ. Tywin's troops, while unblooded, were not "green". IIRC he had them together for nearly a year, so that he had ample time to train them superbly.

So, once the word of Robert's victory came, Tywin had to decide whether to fight an exhausted and weakened, but experienced enemy or not. Robert had only 40K or less at the Trident and the battle was quite fierce, IIRC. IMHO, Tywin had quite a real chance of victory, particulary if he could count on the Tyrell support.

Of course, the prize had to be worth the trouble of involving himself as well. And that meant seizing KL and removing Aerys.

As to the Sack - if the stashes of wildfire were revealed would the deaths of a few hundreds and a bit of raping and looting have mattered?

Besides there can be a few plausible explanations - for instance that search for the stashes and "search-and-destroy" missions after Aerys's agents grew into general violence, or maybe the troops did disobey their orders. Or maybe once Tywin saw that all was lost and heard about Ned's force being sighted, he just allowed his troops to have a little fun in a fit of pique...

As to nixing the Targaryens - if that was Tywin's priority, Dany and Viserys would have been dead long since, I am sure. Tywin didn't need to urge Robert to do something he could have easily taken care of himself.

Finally, at the time of the Sack there wasn't any certainity that Tywin would be able to marry Cersei to Robert. Lyanna was still alive. That would mean that Tywin would gain very little. Saving Jaime? I am sure they could just smuggle him out.
The only power Tywin had under Robert's reign was as Lord of Casterly Rock and through Cersei. In the scenario I proposed he could have at the very least had all the crown powers, if not an immediate gratification of the crown itself.

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Jun 15th 7:02 PM
Green is green. Training goes only so far. Rhaegar had troops available for as long as Robert and co. ahead, but Robert's troops seem to have fought more often with a broader portion of Rhaegar's troops to have the edge in experience and quality. You can train men only so long.

I imagine that Robert's numbers were heavily increased -- medieval armies tended to fall apart and swear fealty to the victor, in the sort of conditions of a civil war as we see now. So I'd put the figure rather higher than that.

I don't see how he could count on Tyrell support. Ned arrived with a portion of his army, and could have laid siege to KL while the Tyrells sat there wondering what to do. Robert would come up with the rest. And then all that pretty sacking leaves him . . . well, dead in the water, no? No new supplies. No fleet. No nothing, save tens of thousands (?) of troops needing food.

And I really don't think Tywin would go an assassinate them himself. Why do that, given that it would risk being found out? I mean, are two child princes with no future prospects in the Free Cities any real danger to him, all considered? Certainly not dangerous enough to hire Faceless Men at their exhorbirant costs. Anything else would mean that the chance for discovery would be too high, given Varys's survival.

In any case, I just consider the marriage thing looney. I just can't seriously see him making that massively rushed a move. To what purpose? It was only a matter of hours, apparently, before Ned appeared. Just what would an immediate marriage cause? And why in the world would he let Gregor go about raping his own wife?

If he married her, I daresay he would have given her a clean death.

LindaElane
User ID: 0276214 Jun 15th 7:31 PM
I don't think Jaime would ever willingly marry or become engaged to anyone. He is under a vow not to marry as a kingsguard, but it is more than that. Cersei is the only woman he has ever been with. I think of him as only oriented toward her. Otherwise, if he could function with another woman, it just seems like he would have tried it at some point. I could be wrong, but thats my impression.

I don't think Tywin would ever sanction Tyrion's marriage to anyone. He would be afraid of more "abominable" Lannister dwarves. One reason be probably hates Tyrion being with whores so much is that he is afraid there will be issue. (Thats-one-reason, there are others.)

I do salute the present theory for its orginality!

Moreta
User ID: 0701364 Jun 15th 11:26 PM
LindaElane, I agree. Though I'm pretty sure that Tywin sees the possible necessity of Tyrion marrying someday.

IMHO, Tywin just wanted to nix as many Targaryens as he could. He planned to take the throne but Robert came to KL too early. On that point, I agree with you, Labor.

labor
User ID: 0798784 Jun 16th 5:52 AM
Moreta, the point is, if Tywin wanted to take the throne, why did he kill Rhaegar's family? Killing them would make it harder, not easier to take and keep the throne.
My point is, only killing Aerys was required and then doing quietly away with Aegon in the future.

Linda, why would Jaime object to marry a child of 4 or 5? She wouldn't have been competition to Cersei for 10 years at least it was surely worth the throne.

Ran, you are right. Maybe only Rhaenys was married to a Lannister (Jaime), but Elia was in the know. The girl did get a clean death, IIRC... And in any case, I don't think that Tywin _ordered_ Gregor to rape Elia. Not his style. But if he and Elia had been married as a formality, however briefly, he'd have killed Gregor for the rape, I'm sure.

Moreta
User ID: 0701364 Jun 16th 5:00 PM
Labor, are you so sure? How about this, Tywin intends to take the throne but Robert came to KL too early. Since Tywin recognized the necessity of caving in to Robert, he decided to get on Robert's good side.

He ordered the children killed. His gamble worked. Robert didn't care about the murders - they were dragonspawn. There's the possiblity that Elia was killed so she couldn't marry Robert. It was then possible to offer Cersei's hand to Robert. That's another way to take the throne - through his grandson.

I'm fairly sure that Tywin didn't order Elia's rape too. The Mountain is a psycho after all, but I think Tywin knew what would happen anyway.

BTW, there's something strange about Elia's death. Varys says that Elia cried out a certain name when "they" came for her.

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Jun 16th 5:25 PM
Not so strange. "Clegane" is the name, and the "they" is Clegane and whatever detachment of Lannister men went with him to see to her death.

Tom O.
User ID: 1167284 Jun 16th 7:55 PM
I am a tad rusty on the information, but everytime I read the sections about the kids and mom being killed it came across as a rash, brutal slaying by a sadistical murderer. Gregor. (?)

The man likes to kill and who better to kill that the lordlings.

Just how i read the material.

Tom O.

Aaron
User ID: 1118614 Jun 16th 8:47 PM
IMHO:

I doubt Tywin is afraid of Tyrion's offspring being dwarves, I don't think he cares at all that Tyrion sleeps with whoree. Remember, it was Tywin and Jaime that gave Tyrion his first piece. :) But having a whore at KL is just wrong for other reasons.

Moreta, I agree with you in thinking Tyrion will marry sometime in the future... probably not Shae but some royal. It would be interesting if he had to marry out of neccessity to protect himself from something. (his own family?)

And finally when I read the books I feel as if GRRM is pointing out how different brothers can be by casting Clegane as the single minded, never gonna change, hard core villain. And The Hound as one who is trying to change, maybe not on purpose, but is changing for the better. Actually I don't really think about Clegane very often.

Padraig
User ID: 8743893 Jun 17th 5:06 PM
I think it was quite obvious that Aerys was mad to the Tyrells if they were really interested in that fact. I don�t think the Lannisters exposing his madness after killing him would make them any more biddable.

I'm not sure what Tywin hoped to achieve in KL. I don't think it was the throne. Things worked out so well for him that I suspect that he knew the death of some Targaryens would not hurt his chances with Robert at all.

And Aaron, Tywin seems to have a deep dislike for whores. He didn't give Tysha to Tyrion. Jaime alone is supposed to be responsible for that.

MAD-ness
User ID: 3612744 Jun 20th 5:24 PM
Interesting theory.

In order to come up with any accurate theory on the sack of King's Landing, we have to figure out what the heck Tywin is/was up to. Some questions that I would love to have answered.

Why did he stop being the Hand?

Why did Jaime join the King's Gaurd?

Why did Cersei hand over King's Landing to Tyrion because Tywin commanded her to?

Why is Pycelle still a Lannister stooge after all the years that Tywin was away?

Why won't Tywin remarry?

What was Tywin up to from the time he quit as the Hand until the time of the War of the Usurption?

Why did Jaime sit on the Iron Throne, even when he knew Ned was coming? Why tick off a man like Eddard Stark, for no reason? If Jaime wanted the Throne, it was his. They could have kept Ned outside of the gates for a long enough period of time to solidify their hold on the city. The Lannisters decided not to take the Throne for themselves, yet Jaime sat on it right in front of Ned.

So, some guesses at why Tywin had the Targaryens killed:

1) He knew that Robert hated them and wanted to get on Robert's good side by doing something ruthless and violent on Robert's behalf. He didn't fear them, he just saw a chance to make Robert forget that Tywin sat the fence by doing something gruesome and spectacular.

2) There is a theory floating around as to why Tywin left King's Landing and resigned as the Hand - Tywin's wife was having an affair at court. This explains him treating Tyrion as a bastard and also explains why he left the city, perhaps he was sort of exiled by Aerys after he threw a fit or perhaps he wanted to return home and plot his revenge. Anyways, the obvious suspect would be Aerys the Mad. If someone impinged upon Tywin's honor, I think he is capable of waiting a couple decades and then doing something like he did at King's Landing.

Padraig
User ID: 8548253 Jun 20th 5:50 PM
Nice questions.

There has been some thoughts that Jaime joined the Kingsguard for idealistic reasons. Or he was glory-seeking.

Tywin had an army Cersei needed and it was his orders.

Tywin was gone but Cersei turned up soon after. One thing I would like to add is what was Pycelle getting out of this deal with Tywin?

I like your second possibility. What he did at KL was serious debt paying.

Ants
User ID: 2240694 Jun 20th 11:24 PM
What if Tywin ordered the death/rape of Elia as revenge for a Targayen having an affair with his wife?

Also, I've always assumed that Jaime/Tywin lied about Tysha being a whore so that Tyrion would let her go. (Jaimes statement to the effect he was loved for a kindness he never did was in my view relating to arranging a whore for Tyrion). Do people not think this and should I put it in the loony ideas section?

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