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A Song of Ice and Fire / A Clash of Kings III / The attempted assassination of Bran VI

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Padraig
User ID: 8548253 		Jun 20th 5:11 PM
Here we go again...

The last few messages.

Relic
User ID: 9328513 Jun 20th 3:25 AM
Sent a pretty dumb assassin then. ANyone with a grain of sand in their head would send somone better...Either the guy was picked spur of the moment, or was suppossed to get caught...
Ants
User ID: 2240694 Jun 20th 4:28 AM
You could be right. Maybe the assassin was meant to be caught. If the real culprit tricked the assassin into believing he was hired by say Tyrion (or someone else), then him being caught would add fuel to the fire. Then he's given the dagger so if he gets killed instead the dagger will tell the tale instead. That would also explain why he was paid such a small amount of money (although that might have been a downpayment). So Littlefinger can easily still be the killer.
Ran
User ID: 0867924 Jun 20th 5:14 AM
Relic,

It's been shown that knowledge of the situation was _not_ necessary for making an attempt at killing someone (re: GUCT and the idea that Littlefinger planned to kill Rickon, but his agent saw that Bran was a better opportunity.)

Although, of course, this still calls for an agent of Littlefinger's (presumed to exist, because most everyone agrees that the deliverer of the box was this person.) Just no need for Littlefinger's actual presence.

The same goes for the Varys idea, but I do find problems with it. This stupid catspaw would certainly not have come up with the idea of killing Bran on his lonesome and it does seem as if it was extremely unlikely for Varys to be appraised by bird and then send orders back. And, indeed, how would this catspaw get the message? Stablehands don't get messages carried by raven.

Of course, it could always be that Varys had two agents, and the second one knows enough about Varys's goals to know that Bran needs to be silenced . . . but we don't see this one heralded, as with Littlefinger's presumed agent, and I find it unlikely to the extreme that any agent of Varys's really knows what he's up to and thus be able to act accordingly.

So this leaves a message from Varys, and the time seems to be simply too short. The messages would have to make the round trip in less than two weeks, and that's well over a thousand miles.
Padraig
User ID: 8548253 		Jun 20th 5:38 PM
Ran, earlier you said that they were way out of the loop, yet you also say that Littlefinger was telling them about his attempted assassination of Bran. I agree with the former but disagree with the latter.

I think it is a bit unrealistic to think anyone can jump from one side to another like you suggest Littlefinger can and did. I admit he did to a certain degree. But it was more him been forced to do so by circumstances and so far getting away with it, than him having meant to keep this great flexibility.

When Littlefinger betrayed Ned what choices had he? He didn't want Stannis in power and he may not even have known that Renly was going to declare himself king. That would have just left him with the Lannisters. It is possible I suppose that he was trying to undermine Lannister rule. Killing Ned been a perfect example. But Renly's death threw that plan out the window. Then it was back to a choice between Stannis and the Lannisters. The Lannisters won. Anyway I don't believe he decided to chance staying with the Lannisters. IMO he felt he had to. (But I will admit straight away I may be wrong).

About Loras knowing, your right in that it is a possibility. We haven't had a textual hint yet so I remain an open-minded doubter.

All Renly and Loras would have got was Ned trusting Littlefinger more. Except if they don't know that Littlefinger was also blaming the Lannisters for Jon's death?

I don't think Robert would have felt okay with Bran's death so I can ignore that point;-)

I also don't think Tywin would ignore Littlefingers accusations against Tyrion. So he must not learn of them. Except if it will be Littlefinger that flees to Dany. OTOH say if Tyrion feels betrayed by his family before he gets a chance to deal with Littlefinger. He could make some wild accusations against Littlefinger before he heads into exile and Tywin may believe him but why bother? Exposing Littlefinger's duplicity would help his family which would no longer be of much importance to Tyrion. And also it would give someone else the opportunity to kill Littlefinger, something Tyrion i'm sure by then would want to do himself.

As Ants and Ran said Catelyn figuring out Jaime and Cersei's involvement in Bran's fall would be far easier than Varys finding out since she had more information to go on. One positive point for Varys though is that he was around when Littlefinger lied to Catelyn so he isn't innocent in this matter.

And LindaElane i'll take you up on you offer. But do I have to stick with Cersei? I know its her but I have been worn down in a very bad way here.
Ran
User ID: 0867924 		Jun 20th 5:48 PM
Ot of the loop, except perhaps for what Littlefinger told them, is what I think I clarified somewhere. Certainly, yeah, it's clear that their little plans were apparently entirely based on Stannis and Jon doing something against the Lannisters (they clearly knew something was up, just not what it was), and when those were foiled they were stuck. Enter Littlefinger with his promise to work things for them.

If Littlefinger had committed himself to Ned or Renly and Loras or the Lannisters from the start, things would have gone very differently, and he would have closed out the possibility of playing all sides against the middle (according to the theory, anyhow.)

Was it his only choice? Yeah, sure, in the end. But he couldn't have even had the chance of being a player if he had sided with the Lannisters from the start, or worked full-bore with Ned.

Could it have been that he wasn't involved at all in the attempt? Yeah, sure. Like GUCT indicates, it's just a theory that he did, just one I find very compelling for a variety of reasons. And if he wasn't behind the attempt, what you say is exactly right -- he played things by ear and tried not to stay committed.

But that works for GUCT as much for the other case -- GUCT just covers and includes the assassination attempt, everything else makes it a very separate entity from what Littlefinger is doing. ;)

Although, I do disagree that Littlefinger couldn't have guessed that Renly wouldn't have minded setting his arse on the Iron Throne, if he was really working with Renly and Loras. I mean, it's not a large step from plotting to get someone on the throne (in thesense of getting the Tyrells up there through Margaery) to wanting to be on the throne yourself. ;)
Ants
User ID: 2240694 		Jun 20th 6:58 PM
OK, here's my complete theory on Littlefinger. (If it overlaps GUCT sorry, but I haven't read that).
1. He has major influence over Lysa Arryn.
Proof: His claims to the two Tully Sister's virginities, Lord Horster's (Cat's father) talk on his deathbed imply someone Lysa and Peytr had a relationship going, and finally Peytr's belief that he could influence Lysa when Tyrion claimed he wanted to arrange a wedding.

2. Peytr arranges for Lysa to write a message to Cat, and uses his own agent to send the message.
Proof: None unless you except point 1 above, but makes sense.

3. Peytr's agent also has orders to kill a Stark, and he chooses Bran as an easy target. Peytr is trying to create conflict in the Realm, and to get revenge on Catelyn.
Proof: The only proof is that the only person known *conclusively* to have an agent at Winterfell is Lysa Arryn, and therefore Peytr if you accept they are in cahoots. This is more evidence than with anyone else.

4. Peytr lies about the Dagger. This is to create Lannister/Stark tensions. Without a war, Peytr is going to remain a simple taxman the rest of his life. He needs a war to be able to gain a greater holding.
Proof: Peytr lied about the dagger. Unfortunaetly this also supports any hypothesis on Varys as he supported Peytr's lie.

5. Ned Stark's death. Peytr had him killed in revenge, and to worsen the war.
Proof: Tyrion believes that Peytr and Varys are the two biggest traitors/threats. Peytr hates Ned. Varys probably didn't do it, as if he wanted to create tensions, why have Ned claim to be a traitor first? Better to have him say something inflammatory. Janos obviously wasn't Varys' so he was probably Peytr's, explaining his haste in shortening Ned.

6. The assassination attempt on Tyrion. Peytr was removing the loose ends by killing Tyrion. After that who could conclusively claim the dagger hadn't been Tyrions.
Proof: The King's guard who did the attack was from the vale. Possibly his loyalaties were still there, and therefore to Lysa and then Peytr. Against this is that Tyrion thinks it's Cersei who is responsible.


Ok, there are the reasons I think Peytr is the killer which I can prove (however vaguely at some points). I think there is more evidence here against Peytr than against any other character. As GRRM has said there is sufficient evidence, I think the killer is Peytr.

Although the theories around other characters are good, I would argue most have no evidence against them (Renly, Tywin), very little (Robert, Joffrey) or the evidence is contradictory (Cersei/Jaime - Cersei didn't admit anything to Tyrion even when she admitted Jaime threw Bran out the window, Jaime says he would do it himself, and if Cersei did it he would know). So if anyone can line up more evidence against any other character than I have, I'll consider the case, but until then I'm all for Littlefinger.


LindaElane
User ID: 0276214 		Jun 20th 8:45 PM
Regarding the timeline. I read that Jon visited Catelyn when she had been in the sickroom nigh on a firtnight, Jon then gives needle to Arya and leaves for the north. Ned's party leaves sometime after Jon, we don't know how many days, but probably very soon thereafter. The book says that Ned and the girls had been gone 8 days when the attempt was made on Bran's life. So I think its at least 3 weeks after the fall before the assassination is attempted. Why the pause? Someone had time to send message, possibly by the sea route that Catelyn took.

I suppose it is true in most cases that Varys would not use a dumb assassin. I would like to suggest that a dumb assassin was hired on purpose. Maybe the guy does not know who he is working for, he is so dumb. Thats because of the danger he would be taken alive. Its possibly the master of ravens who was Varys' real spy and who hired the assassin.

My main reason not to support Littlefinger is that I think any of the three named "owners" of the dagger are too obvious. I am looking for something trickier.

I assume it was not Jaime as I assume he told Catelyn the truth in the dungeon scene. My only reason for ruling out Cersei is that I trust how well Jaime knows her when he says she would have told him if she had done it.

Though I admit I am much less sure about Varys, I won't go back on what i said Padraig. No, you don't need to stick with Cersei. Who do you think it was?

I do think Varys and Littlefinger plotted to tell Catelyn something but I am not sure they agreed to say it was Tyrion. I also think Varys wants to avoid Stark/Lannister conflict for the time being. He tells Illyrio that Littlefinger's meddling is setting the wolf and lion at each other's throats and he does not want that right now. So, the information and clues seem pretty contradictory right now.
Jeff
User ID: 8813033 		Jun 20th 8:56 PM
Ants, you've pretty much described Ran's GUCT theory.

I think its a possibility, but for several reasons I think less than likely than some other options. I won't run through the whole thing but will just make one point related to 3 above. Littlefinger knew of the bastardy and knew of evidence sufficient to convince Ned of the bastardy. He likely also knew enough about the murder of Jon Arryn to lead Ned to discover that as well.

Conflict in the realm between Stark and Lannister was insufficient motive for 3) above. All it took was Ned's discovery of the incest. Littlefinger could have started a Stark/Lannister conflict at any time simply by leading Ned to that discovery, and without the risk of being discovered as responsible for the murder of a Stark child. Maximum gain, minimal risk.

Ants
User ID: 2240694 		Jun 20th 9:23 PM
But he gets no revenge on the Starks. I think he always planned for the Lannisters to come out on top. Also Stark is less likely to give Littlefinger a greater lordship than the Lannisters. Remember Tyrion's comments to Bronn about Catelyn/Starks, and how they look down on mercenaries. However Lannisters pay their friends/associates off handsomely. By supporting Starks/Robert Littlefinger may have got no gain what so ever, and still suffered risk from vengeful Lannisters (and theres a lot of them).

So by supporting the Lannisters he increases his chance of advancement, and gets revenge on the Starks/Catelyn.
Ran
User ID: 0867924 		Jun 21st 6:01 AM
Ants,

As you see, Jeff and I disagree in how Littlefinger would have managed to lead Ned anywhere. Me, I figure Littlefinger took the course he did (presuming GUCT is right) because it happened to be the surest way to win Ned's trust. But others presuppose that Littlefinger had other ways to do it once Ned was in Winterfell. What those ways are are left to the imagination. ;)

It's a sticking point, in any case. I do note that I'm not sure on the idea of Littlefinger having vengeance on the Starks as a particular goal. Maybe. Perhaps. As a very secondary goal, which he could get rid of as necessary to improve his odds of achieving his primary goal of satisfying his personal ambitions.
Ants
User ID: 2240694 		Jun 21st 6:41 AM
The problem I have with people other than Littlefinger is the amount of evidence. For example, in LindaElane's account of Varys as the mastermind, her arguments and theories are good. But what collaborative evidence has she got? I don't think GRRM is going to say that there is sufficient evidence if the only evidence is that the person is capable of doing it, and might have had a good reason. There should be more than that.

I admit most of my proofs outlined above against Littlefinger stem from the assumption he is in cahoots with/controls Lysa Arryn. But the only real pieces of evidence we have against *anyone* is the lies about the dagger made by Varys/Littlefinger, and Jaime/Cersei throwing Bran out the window showing intent. James/Cersei seem to have evidence against them provided in discussions with Tyrion by Cersei and with Catelyn by Jaime. In Varys' talk with Illyrio he doesn't say anything to imply he did the deed, and indeed professes motives (keeping Starks/Lannisters apart a bit longer) that run counter to killing Bran. So that seems to leave Littlefinger as the culprit.

If anyone can think of any evidence against any other character that I haven't mentioned, please post it.
Ran
User ID: 0867924 		Jun 21st 10:12 AM
Jeff,

Just to refresh my memory . . . why _didn't_ Littlefinger just lead Ned immediately to the evidence of incest after lying about who owned the knife?

Maximum gain, minimum risk, right? If it was so easy to make maximum gain this way, you'd think he'd just reveal the whole mess, more or less -- not admitting he knew, but just throw all the evidence at NEd at once and let him figure it out in half the time that it took him.

The truth comes out, Robert gets rid of Cersei and Joff and the rest of the Lannisters (thus making him free in clear when it comes to the matter of the knife), Renly and Loras get to sit Margaery on the throne, and Littlefinger's free and clear, owed by Robert and Ned and Renly and the Tyrells . . .

Hum. I don't see anything above with the above. The only risk was Tyrion being captured during the war against the Lannisters and tried for his supposed attempt on Bran. But this seems immensely trivial compared to all the supposed risk for too little gain that GUCT supposes, so . . .

Why not? I think we may have covered it before, but my memory is slipping on this point. In GUCT, the reason for him not to reveal (almost) all to Ned is dealt with. But otherwise, if his only crime is lying about the knife, what's the point?
Padraig
User ID: 8548253 		Jun 21st 4:52 PM
One thing I have always found funny about Littlefinger been behind the assassination is that he decided to frame the Lannsiters for the assassination of a Stark child before the Lannisters themselves went off and tried to kill Bran. Some people can accept that such a coincidence happen. I don't. Just a matter of personal opinion, which i'm sure I mentioned before;)

LindaElane, I actually do think it is Cersei but for the same reasons you have become unsure about Varys I have also lost confidence with Cersei. This crowd is impossible;-)

A few things though. I don't think Jaime knows Cersei as well as he thinks. In fact I think Jaime's refusal to kill Bran caused Cersei to make such a mess of the assassination.

Cersei does not like Tyrion so I don't see why she would admit all her plots to him. And notice she admitted Jaime threw Bran from the tower. She was almost totally innocent in her account. If Jaime had not been so rash...blah, blah, blah. And I don't think she would like to admit to Bran�s assassination for another reason, it failed so miserably. Very embarrassing.

Ants, it would surely be a very bad move for Littlefinger to blame Tyrion for Bran's attempted murder if he truly planned on the Lannisters coming out on top? I think Littlefinger would have been quite happy with Robert remaining in power. It was only when he died and Stannis became Ned's alternative that he completely abandoned ship into the Lannister or Renly's crowd.

Ran, I admit Littlefinger did want war between the Starks and the Lannisters. That's why he lied to Ned. I just think he never had to go to such lengths to arrange it. Some risk, some gain.
Ran
User ID: 0867924 		Jun 21st 4:57 PM
Padraig,

Concerning why you say to Ants:

"I think Littlefinger would have been quite happy with Robert remaining in power. It was only when he died and Stannis became Ned's alternative that
he completely abandoned ship into the Lannister or Renly's crowd."

Why didn't he do what I suggested above, more or less giving Ned everything without actually revealing the incest? Give him the names of the folk Ned wants to see, give him the whore's bastard, and let Ned figure it out? Ned might have taken a long time to figure it out, but in all likelihood he would have figured it out a lot sooner than he really did.

The longer Littlefinger took to get Ned to the point of discovering the truth, the higher the odds that Robert would die before things came to a head. One can then only presume that he _wanted_ a situation where Robert died. Why?

Honest question, as I'm really curious to your thoughts as to explaining this if one does not follow GUCT in its major points. GUCT accounts for it, but I'm not certain anything else does.
Padraig
User ID: 8548253 		Jun 21st 5:15 PM
Ran, I'm not sure I would agree with your suggestion that he wanted Robert dead. It was only Ned's honourable but rash coversation with Cersei that caused Robert to die. Although maybe Robert would inevitably have died anyway.

You are right in that if he told Ned everything straght-off then war between the Lannisters and the crown would have been avoided or very one-sided. And it gave Littlefinger more control of things if he drip-fed Ned with choice morsels every so often. In fact to be honest, I could probably agree with everything in GUCT except that he tried to kill Bran. Which is a major point;)

So remind me, why did he want a situation where Robert died? Seems to reduce his options to me.
Ran
User ID: 0867924 		Jun 21st 5:26 PM
I'm not really saying that's the case -- it just seems to be the case. I've not really given very clear thought to what reasons Littlefinger might have wanted for stretching things out enough to make Robert's death a likelier occurance.

The only thing that springs immediately to mind is chaos -- but the idea that he'd increase his risk just for the sake of a _possible_ bigger profit coming from it has not in general been well-looked upon before. ;)

In otherwords, I'm trying to tackle this situation sidewise.
Ants
User ID: 2240694 		Jun 21st 6:40 PM
If Littlefinger wanted Robert to remain in power, why not tell Robert everything about the incest? Or tell Jon Arryn his proof while he was still alive? Both seem much more likely to reward him than Ned would be. Ned didn't exactly seem to be on the best terms with Littlefinger and I don't think he's the type for paying people for secrets. Hell, why not sell the knoweledge to Renly or the Tyrells. Controlling Storm End and High garden they would be perfectly placed to provide him with a lordship as soon as one became vacant, and both would want to know about the incest.

I know this is a change of tune, but I was actually just wondering if it could be her. The argument about her not admitting it because of how embarrising the results were is what got me interested. Also, Robert might have given her the knife being vindictive ("here, take the knife I won because your favourite brother couldn't sit his horse"). And if it was Cersei's knife, Littlefinger is taking much less risk in naming Tyrion as the owner ("what, you wanted me to say who the real owner was?"). Espescially since Cersei hates Tyrion so much. So maybe it was Cersei. Still not much other evidence against her though.
LindaElane
User ID: 0276214 		Jun 21st 9:37 PM
Ah, hurray, my theory is becoming more acceptable :-) Yes, it is admittedly not obvious. However, IIRC, I think that GRRM said something like "Lets see, I think I may have" in response to the question of whether he had given us enough information.

My dual points are (1) If I did get it then he did give us engough information (2) He never said for a certainty that he did give us enough information, just something along the lines of he thinks he may have.
Jeff
User ID: 8813033 		Jun 22nd 8:01 PM
I should clarify that my post above was not intended to imply that Littlefinger had no motive. Gaining Ned's trust would be one motive, and there are others. My only point was that starting a war between Starks and Lannisters was not a sufficient motive for Littlefinger because he could have done that anyway. Betraying Ned might be another motive, but again, its not the same as just starting a war.

Ran, why didn't Littlefinger just lead Ned to the evidence right away? Maybe because he wanted to keep a low profile. He ended up leading Ned along only after Ned had announced that he was going to leave. Littlefinger was desperate at that point and had to keep Ned in KL.

One thing I don't understand, though, is why Littlefinger was such a, uh, asshole to Ned. He was sarcastic and nasty in all his dealings. Doesn't seem to make much sense.
LindaElane
User ID: 0276214 		Jun 22nd 9:16 PM
I would presume he despises him because he married Catelyn.
Ran
User ID: 0867924 		Jun 23rd 5:19 AM
Jeff,

Ahh, that works. I agree that _just_ starting a war isn't enough. If GUCT is true, Littlefinger is working towards several things, not just one. Though I still don't know about revenge against the Starks ...

And as for how he dealt with Ned, well, that's Littlefinger. I think he wanted Ned to grudgingly trust him for what he is -- putting up a face of being a nice, pleasant guy would be risky because if he slipped once, that might shake Ned. Better to have a constitent demeanor than a wildly varying one if you're trying to fool somebody.
Markus
User ID: 8820133 		Jun 23rd 5:41 AM
I think it's more likely that Petyr was jealous of Ned.

However, what Jeff probably meant is that he thinks it's puzzling that Littlefinger would bother/risk to kill Bran in order to recommend his services to Ned, but on the other hand behaved partly rather offendingly and particularly inappropriate to get Ned's trust.

I suppose one could say that Littlefinger is just not as able as Varys to disguise his true feelings and nature in these sort of dealings, or that his offer to help Ned and Catelyn was apparently enough in his mind to counterbalance his general attitude, or even that his disrespectful and offending but apparently frank attitude has proved effective to get him the results he wished.

I'm not sure, though, that these explanations are really convincing enough when one considers that Littlefinger is also attributed with being unsure enough of Ned to devise a rather convoluted scheme to kill Bran which involved a considerabe personal risk, mainly to be in a position in which Ned would eventually bid for his services.

Especially, since it seems to me that this could have been achieved by pretending to share Ned's suspicions about an unnatural cause of Arryn's death and helping him to uncover the incest motive. And it isn't as if Ned had many alternatives to begin with, and Littlefinger had to know this.
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