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A Song of Ice and Fire / A Clash of Kings III / Invasion of the Ironmen!

Next 20 Messages Newest Messages

Casper
User ID: 9405543 Jul 17th 3:52 PM
Do we know how successful the Iron invasion was? Specifically, Balon sen the bulk of his force to strangle the Neck, but do we know if they succeeded? Asha was successful, and of course we know what happened to Theon, but what about the rest?

KAH
Moderator
User ID: 0541004 Jul 18th 9:42 AM
Well, Ser Rodrik mentioned the Ironmen had _three_ castles (Deepwood Motte, Winterfell, and - supposedly - Moat Cailin). So I'd figure they were successful.

Arend
User ID: 8590713 Jul 18th 12:00 PM
Since Winterfell wasn't part of the original plan, I am not sure if it counts. Remember how Theon's sister reacted to his stunt?

KAH
Moderator
User ID: 0541004 Jul 18th 12:19 PM
What, you mean the Ironmen had three castles _besides_ Winterfell?

Ser Gary
User ID: 1523284 Jul 26th 9:46 AM
Never mind that, Kay-Arne. How did you get that Moderator tag???

Gaining castles and holding castles are two different animals. I get the impression the Iron invading force wasn't especially large. Given that, I doubt the original plan was to try to hold the North - at least not for very long. Perhaps they were looking toward an alliance of some kind with other Stark enemies.

KAH
Moderator
User ID: 0541004 Jul 26th 11:36 AM
Divine intervention.

Ser Gary
User ID: 1523284 Jul 26th 12:38 PM
God Ran???

Ants
User ID: 2240694 Jul 26th 8:27 PM
I think the original plan was to hold the neck, and slowly take the north piecemeal.

Ser Gary
User ID: 1523284 Jul 27th 7:51 AM
They had to assume, though, that Robb would come charging back with everything he had. Without assistance from the Lannisters or some other legitimate force, I have a hard time believing the Ironmen would have been able to hold him off for very long. And I do understand the strategic significance of The Neck. But even if that were a problem, Robb would find an alternative route. Retaking the North would become priority one. At least, that's my opinion.

Jeff
User ID: 1536664 Jul 27th 8:10 AM
Ser Gary, I tend to agree. I think Greyjoy's plan was doomed to fail in the long term. It's like a mouse trying to swallow a cat.

Ser Gary
User ID: 1523284 Jul 27th 8:23 AM
It does leave us wondering about Balon's actual motives. An old man's revenge for the deaths of some of his children in a long-ago war? If so, then why leave a lightly guarded Winterfell off the hit list?

Arend
User ID: 8590713 Jul 27th 8:35 AM
Balon's motive seems to be (primarily) a crown, not revenge. By attacking up North he would distract Robb and his Northern bannermen, and create a split between the parties that make up Robb's following. Divide and conquer?

Jeff
User ID: 1536664 Jul 27th 9:01 AM
I think Balon was motivated by a crown -- he just is arrogant and overestimates his own power. He rebelled against a united Westeros during Greyjoy's Rebellion. That was a pretty nutty act, and he was crushed. So we know the guy isn't averse to taking risks. Now, he's a lot older, and probably figures this is the best opportunity that will ever come along, even if the chances of success aren't that great. So why not?

Plus, he knows that the Starks are in rebellion, and that, if they lose, the North will be leaderless. So he tries to grab as much as he can, then attempts to cut a deal with Tywin. It's not a terrible plan.

I think the critical flaw is that the other northern lords will never accept his rule. Even if he were to win in the short term, I think it probable that an alliance of those lords eventually would have booted him out.

KAH
Moderator
User ID: 0541004 Jul 27th 9:59 AM
Actually, Balon did _not_ do it for a crown.

He did it to bring back the old days of raiding and plundering, just as he tried for in the last rebellion.
ACoK makes this very clear.

Jeff
User ID: 1536664 Jul 27th 11:15 AM
I'm not so sure of that. Didn't he hit Theon when Theon said Robb would "give" him a crown, and then responded that he would "take" his crown and pay the iron price for it? Plus, I thought there was something about his strategy for controlling the North. Grab a few castles, including Mora Cailin, and then slowly let the other castles fall into his hand one by one. That's a plan for a crown in the north, not just raiding.

KAH
User ID: 0541004 Jul 27th 11:47 AM
All right, if you by a 'crown' mean getting a realm, I'm game.

Nevertheless, I'm doubting Balon would calm down even if he gobbled up all of the north - rather, it'd help his raiding and plundering in the southern realm - as I assume it was in Harren the Black's days.

I suspect Balon Greyjoy's offer to Tyrion was a ruse to give him time to consolidate in the north, nothing else.

Jeff
User ID: 1536664 Jul 27th 12:14 PM
I agree that Balon might use the North as a springboard for other actions. But betraying the Lannisters -- assuming they win -- would be _really_ stupid. The King of the Six Kingdoms would have all their power at his disposal. Greyjoy would have to defend both the Iron Isles and the mainland North. That seems like a very tall order to me because Greyjoy couldn't even defend his own island.

That's not to say that Greyjoy wouldn't do it anyway. He doesn't seem like the most rational guy in the world.

KAH
User ID: 0541004 Jul 27th 12:23 PM
Exactly.

After all, he did launch an invasion when the odds where far _worse_ than they are now.

Arend
User ID: 8590713 Jul 27th 6:48 PM
What can I add? You guys made my point much clearer than I did. I don't think he is _that_ irrational. "Though this be madness, there's method in it", or however that quote goes. Living on a windblown piece of worthless rock, basically twiddling your thumbs would give you a skewed view of the world. Since we only get one good glimpse of him, I find it difficult to fathom his perspective all that well.

Although - Balon has a point. Harren was defeated by dragons, not much else I get the impression. So with the lands in disarray, the dragons preceived to be extinct, this is as good a time as any to make an attempt.

I am not sure if his first rebellion was that stupid. Robert Baratheon rose up against his king. Civil war is never pretty, and takes a long time to dissipate (see the US Civil War). I always wondered by what margin Robert and Ned defeated Balon.

Jaeger
User ID: 9670323 Jul 27th 7:49 PM
Using the north as a springboard isn't that worst of possibilities. The neck was supposed to keep out the Lannisters, it ought to keep out the whole 7 kingdoms. They'ld be vulnerable on the eastern shore though, if one can assume that they'ld be able to handle ship coming around the other way(And remember, the Redwynes are still needed for Stannis, that'ld just leave Lanisport, and maybe the Mallister's as the remaining large body of ships. Plust whatever could be scared up.).
Plus, the rest of the kingdoms are bleeding themselves, 10 or so years after a war seems like you'ld get a mix of veterans plus plenty of green boys.

It'ld be an ugly affair, but more likely than while Robert was around.

Next 20 Messages Newest Messages

Casper User ID: 9405543	Jul 17th 3:52 PM Do we know how successful the Iron invasion was? Specifically, Balon sen the bulk of his force to strangle the Neck, but do we know if they succeeded? Asha was successful, and of course we know what happened to Theon, but what about the rest?
KAH Moderator User ID: 0541004	Jul 18th 9:42 AM Well, Ser Rodrik mentioned the Ironmen had _three_ castles (Deepwood Motte, Winterfell, and - supposedly - Moat Cailin). So I'd figure they were successful.
Arend User ID: 8590713	Jul 18th 12:00 PM Since Winterfell wasn't part of the original plan, I am not sure if it counts. Remember how Theon's sister reacted to his stunt?
KAH Moderator User ID: 0541004	Jul 18th 12:19 PM What, you mean the Ironmen had three castles _besides_ Winterfell?
Ser Gary User ID: 1523284	Jul 26th 9:46 AM Never mind that, Kay-Arne. How did you get that Moderator tag??? Gaining castles and holding castles are two different animals. I get the impression the Iron invading force wasn't especially large. Given that, I doubt the original plan was to try to hold the North - at least not for very long. Perhaps they were looking toward an alliance of some kind with other Stark enemies.
KAH Moderator User ID: 0541004	Jul 26th 11:36 AM Divine intervention.
Ser Gary User ID: 1523284	Jul 26th 12:38 PM God Ran???
Ants User ID: 2240694	Jul 26th 8:27 PM I think the original plan was to hold the neck, and slowly take the north piecemeal.
Ser Gary User ID: 1523284	Jul 27th 7:51 AM They had to assume, though, that Robb would come charging back with everything he had. Without assistance from the Lannisters or some other legitimate force, I have a hard time believing the Ironmen would have been able to hold him off for very long. And I do understand the strategic significance of The Neck. But even if that were a problem, Robb would find an alternative route. Retaking the North would become priority one. At least, that's my opinion.
Jeff User ID: 1536664	Jul 27th 8:10 AM Ser Gary, I tend to agree. I think Greyjoy's plan was doomed to fail in the long term. It's like a mouse trying to swallow a cat.
Ser Gary User ID: 1523284	Jul 27th 8:23 AM It does leave us wondering about Balon's actual motives. An old man's revenge for the deaths of some of his children in a long-ago war? If so, then why leave a lightly guarded Winterfell off the hit list?
Arend User ID: 8590713	Jul 27th 8:35 AM Balon's motive seems to be (primarily) a crown, not revenge. By attacking up North he would distract Robb and his Northern bannermen, and create a split between the parties that make up Robb's following. Divide and conquer?
Jeff User ID: 1536664	Jul 27th 9:01 AM I think Balon was motivated by a crown -- he just is arrogant and overestimates his own power. He rebelled against a united Westeros during Greyjoy's Rebellion. That was a pretty nutty act, and he was crushed. So we know the guy isn't averse to taking risks. Now, he's a lot older, and probably figures this is the best opportunity that will ever come along, even if the chances of success aren't that great. So why not? Plus, he knows that the Starks are in rebellion, and that, if they lose, the North will be leaderless. So he tries to grab as much as he can, then attempts to cut a deal with Tywin. It's not a terrible plan. I think the critical flaw is that the other northern lords will never accept his rule. Even if he were to win in the short term, I think it probable that an alliance of those lords eventually would have booted him out.
KAH Moderator User ID: 0541004	Jul 27th 9:59 AM Actually, Balon did _not_ do it for a crown. He did it to bring back the old days of raiding and plundering, just as he tried for in the last rebellion. ACoK makes this very clear.
Jeff User ID: 1536664	Jul 27th 11:15 AM I'm not so sure of that. Didn't he hit Theon when Theon said Robb would "give" him a crown, and then responded that he would "take" his crown and pay the iron price for it? Plus, I thought there was something about his strategy for controlling the North. Grab a few castles, including Mora Cailin, and then slowly let the other castles fall into his hand one by one. That's a plan for a crown in the north, not just raiding.
KAH User ID: 0541004	Jul 27th 11:47 AM All right, if you by a 'crown' mean getting a realm, I'm game. Nevertheless, I'm doubting Balon would calm down even if he gobbled up all of the north - rather, it'd help his raiding and plundering in the southern realm - as I assume it was in Harren the Black's days. I suspect Balon Greyjoy's offer to Tyrion was a ruse to give him time to consolidate in the north, nothing else.
Jeff User ID: 1536664	Jul 27th 12:14 PM I agree that Balon might use the North as a springboard for other actions. But betraying the Lannisters -- assuming they win -- would be _really_ stupid. The King of the Six Kingdoms would have all their power at his disposal. Greyjoy would have to defend both the Iron Isles and the mainland North. That seems like a very tall order to me because Greyjoy couldn't even defend his own island. That's not to say that Greyjoy wouldn't do it anyway. He doesn't seem like the most rational guy in the world.
KAH User ID: 0541004	Jul 27th 12:23 PM Exactly. After all, he did launch an invasion when the odds where far _worse_ than they are now.
Arend User ID: 8590713	Jul 27th 6:48 PM What can I add? You guys made my point much clearer than I did. I don't think he is _that_ irrational. "Though this be madness, there's method in it", or however that quote goes. Living on a windblown piece of worthless rock, basically twiddling your thumbs would give you a skewed view of the world. Since we only get one good glimpse of him, I find it difficult to fathom his perspective all that well. Although - Balon has a point. Harren was defeated by dragons, not much else I get the impression. So with the lands in disarray, the dragons preceived to be extinct, this is as good a time as any to make an attempt. I am not sure if his first rebellion was that stupid. Robert Baratheon rose up against his king. Civil war is never pretty, and takes a long time to dissipate (see the US Civil War). I always wondered by what margin Robert and Ned defeated Balon.
Jaeger User ID: 9670323	Jul 27th 7:49 PM Using the north as a springboard isn't that worst of possibilities. The neck was supposed to keep out the Lannisters, it ought to keep out the whole 7 kingdoms. They'ld be vulnerable on the eastern shore though, if one can assume that they'ld be able to handle ship coming around the other way(And remember, the Redwynes are still needed for Stannis, that'ld just leave Lanisport, and maybe the Mallister's as the remaining large body of ships. Plust whatever could be scared up.). Plus, the rest of the kingdoms are bleeding themselves, 10 or so years after a war seems like you'ld get a mix of veterans plus plenty of green boys. It'ld be an ugly affair, but more likely than while Robert was around.