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A Song of Ice and Fire / A Clash of Kings III / Cersei's future children?

Richard
User ID: 2212414 May 24th 9:57 PM
When Tyrion warned Lancel not to get Cersei pregnant, Lancel said that Cersei had him pull out and "water her belly." Now, in modern times, we know that this is perhaps not the most totally effective means of birth control. Does anyone think Cersei might have a political embarassment on the way? If that should happen, what impact would that be likely to have?

Brady
User ID: 0721754 May 24th 10:48 PM
If Cercei gets pregnant,I think she would abort the pregnancy to hiude it from jaime. She has done it before with Roberts children

LindaElane
User ID: 0276214 May 24th 10:59 PM
Well, thats an interesting question. Almost everyone knows there is sperm in pre-ejaculatory fluid and that the "withdrawal" method is not totallly effective and it not to be relied upon.

However, something that has always interested me is that no method of birth control is. I think most people live their lives in the delusion that birth control, practiced properly, is 100 percent effective, and that 95 percent effective means five percent "did it wrong".Thats not what it means at all of course, it means that is the effectivness when practiced properly....but I digress.

Does anyone know the effectiness of withdrawal? Obviously not 100 percent, but how does it compare with other methods?
Of course, overall, i agree with Brandy. She has no compuction about aborting them. One has to wonder about the effect on her health if one is thinking realistically, however.

KAH
User ID: 0541004 May 25th 9:00 AM
The effectiveness of withdrawal? Hm.

Perhaps I should conduct a field study... ;o)

Lodengarl
User ID: 1822634 May 25th 10:16 AM
This is silly....we are really, really over-analyzing GRRM when we are debating birth control techniques changing plot lines...ahahahahah...this is great. If I had my choice, I would have Cersei doggy-style, and would not water her belly....errrrrr...damn, I am on the wrong subject I think..eheheheh

Jeff
User ID: 1536664 May 25th 4:49 PM
The efficiency of withdrawal -- what a topic. Takes a man with a very strong will to practice that properly. But if she coupled that with "rhythm", I suppose its possible she's had only one or so pregnancies with Robert. He did make a comment about how closely she guarded her "cleft", so I imagine its not all that frequent an occurence anyway.

Ran
User ID: 0867924 May 25th 5:09 PM
She was pregnant by Robert only once, apparently very early into the marriage. She's kept him from having intercourse with her for a lot of years now, apparently.

I'd say that the chances of Cersei being pregnant now aren't very high, and if it turns out that she is, she'll abort it. The question is whether it'll be done before Jaime finds out. I do wonder if Lancel will survive into _A Storm of Swords_ -- he was fairly badly wounded, and infection might set in.

Brady
User ID: 0721754 May 25th 9:55 PM
I remember a quote by Billy Conolly on the withdrawal method
"A team of wild horses couldnt drag my arse that way at that time"

Richard
User ID: 2212414 May 26th 3:17 AM
I don't know, Brady. A horse is much stronger than any human being could ever be, and a whole team operating together, well.... :)
Also, would Cersei be so eager to abort one of Lancel's babies. Remember, she hated Robert; she doesn't hate Lancel at all. Also, Jaime might not be coming back ever. I think Catelyn killed him. But that's for another thread.

Emily
User ID: 2192024 May 26th 8:41 AM
Cersei may not hate Lancel, but at best he's a very inadequate substitute for Jaime. Tyrion believes she's perfectly capable of disposing of Lancel to prevent Jaime finding out about the affair, so she's undoubtedly capable of disposing of his unborn child. Having Lancel's bastard would very probably destroy her relationship with Jaime - if and when he ever returns - and would brand her as a whore and no doubt get her overthrown as Queen Regent. AND it would give credence to Stannis' claim that Joffrey is not Robert's son, thus losing her precious darling his throne and probably his life. Even if this hypothetical child was Jaime's, I think she'd abort it. There's nothing she wouldn't do to keep her children safe - and after all she sees abortion as 'cleansing' rather than murder.

labor
User ID: 0798784 May 26th 9:18 AM
Add to that the fact that every time a Westerosi woman gives birth she risks her life. Why would Cersei do so for Lancel's bastard? Even without the insane political risks involved? Lancel is only her pleasure boy, she doesn't care about him at all.
I don't know about another Jaime's child. However, it has been 8 years since Tommen for Cersei, maybe she has become infertile.

Moreta
User ID: 0701364 May 28th 1:17 AM
I doubt it. Cersei's what, in her early thirties? Maybe she didn't dare to get pregnant by Jaime since it was common knowledge that Robert kept away from her bed?

Emily
User ID: 2192024 May 29th 9:25 AM
I don't think it was common knowledge...and anyway, Robert didn't exactly keep away from her bed, it's just that whenever he managed to stagger there, Cersei found other ways to satisfy him, which he was usually too drunk to remember by the next day. If she'd got pregnant by Jaime, all she had to do was to allow Robert sex with her once, and she'd have got away with having a child.

Cinis the Degenerate
User ID: 2149564 May 29th 9:46 AM
Cersei got pregnant by Jaime at least 4 times, she admitted as much. And I think the effectiveness of withdrawal is about 70 to 80% chance of not impregnating if it is the right time for a pregnancy. How much I know! :)

Cinis the Degenerate,
Who studies methods of contraception in depth...

Cinis the Degenerate
User ID: 2149564 May 29th 10:19 AM
Did some research, here's some more info:

Rhythm method: 15-40% failiure rate. (that's 60-85% efficiency)
Withdrawal method: 60-70% (10% off then)

If they're combined you'd get an effectiveness of between:
100% - (40%*40%) = 84% and 100% - (30%*15%) = 95.5%

So 84-95.5% effectiveness... not bad. => so I think Cersei is pretty safe, she won't have to have an abortion for a while.

How interesting... :)

Blackstone
User ID: 9858163 Jun 14th 4:07 PM
Thanks for the info Cinis the Degenerate. 8)

I think its clear that Cersei has access to herbs, etc. to "cleanse" herself.

The real question is whether or not she would be stupid enough to have Lancel's childern.

Richard User ID: 2212414	May 24th 9:57 PM When Tyrion warned Lancel not to get Cersei pregnant, Lancel said that Cersei had him pull out and "water her belly." Now, in modern times, we know that this is perhaps not the most totally effective means of birth control. Does anyone think Cersei might have a political embarassment on the way? If that should happen, what impact would that be likely to have?
Brady User ID: 0721754	May 24th 10:48 PM If Cercei gets pregnant,I think she would abort the pregnancy to hiude it from jaime. She has done it before with Roberts children
LindaElane User ID: 0276214	May 24th 10:59 PM Well, thats an interesting question. Almost everyone knows there is sperm in pre-ejaculatory fluid and that the "withdrawal" method is not totallly effective and it not to be relied upon. However, something that has always interested me is that no method of birth control is. I think most people live their lives in the delusion that birth control, practiced properly, is 100 percent effective, and that 95 percent effective means five percent "did it wrong".Thats not what it means at all of course, it means that is the effectivness when practiced properly....but I digress. Does anyone know the effectiness of withdrawal? Obviously not 100 percent, but how does it compare with other methods? Of course, overall, i agree with Brandy. She has no compuction about aborting them. One has to wonder about the effect on her health if one is thinking realistically, however.
KAH User ID: 0541004	May 25th 9:00 AM The effectiveness of withdrawal? Hm. Perhaps I should conduct a field study... ;o)
Lodengarl User ID: 1822634	May 25th 10:16 AM This is silly....we are really, really over-analyzing GRRM when we are debating birth control techniques changing plot lines...ahahahahah...this is great. If I had my choice, I would have Cersei doggy-style, and would not water her belly....errrrrr...damn, I am on the wrong subject I think..eheheheh
Jeff User ID: 1536664	May 25th 4:49 PM The efficiency of withdrawal -- what a topic. Takes a man with a very strong will to practice that properly. But if she coupled that with "rhythm", I suppose its possible she's had only one or so pregnancies with Robert. He did make a comment about how closely she guarded her "cleft", so I imagine its not all that frequent an occurence anyway.
Ran User ID: 0867924	May 25th 5:09 PM She was pregnant by Robert only once, apparently very early into the marriage. She's kept him from having intercourse with her for a lot of years now, apparently. I'd say that the chances of Cersei being pregnant now aren't very high, and if it turns out that she is, she'll abort it. The question is whether it'll be done before Jaime finds out. I do wonder if Lancel will survive into _A Storm of Swords_ -- he was fairly badly wounded, and infection might set in.
Brady User ID: 0721754	May 25th 9:55 PM I remember a quote by Billy Conolly on the withdrawal method "A team of wild horses couldnt drag my arse that way at that time"
Richard User ID: 2212414	May 26th 3:17 AM I don't know, Brady. A horse is much stronger than any human being could ever be, and a whole team operating together, well.... :) Also, would Cersei be so eager to abort one of Lancel's babies. Remember, she hated Robert; she doesn't hate Lancel at all. Also, Jaime might not be coming back ever. I think Catelyn killed him. But that's for another thread.
Emily User ID: 2192024	May 26th 8:41 AM Cersei may not hate Lancel, but at best he's a very inadequate substitute for Jaime. Tyrion believes she's perfectly capable of disposing of Lancel to prevent Jaime finding out about the affair, so she's undoubtedly capable of disposing of his unborn child. Having Lancel's bastard would very probably destroy her relationship with Jaime - if and when he ever returns - and would brand her as a whore and no doubt get her overthrown as Queen Regent. AND it would give credence to Stannis' claim that Joffrey is not Robert's son, thus losing her precious darling his throne and probably his life. Even if this hypothetical child was Jaime's, I think she'd abort it. There's nothing she wouldn't do to keep her children safe - and after all she sees abortion as 'cleansing' rather than murder.
labor User ID: 0798784	May 26th 9:18 AM Add to that the fact that every time a Westerosi woman gives birth she risks her life. Why would Cersei do so for Lancel's bastard? Even without the insane political risks involved? Lancel is only her pleasure boy, she doesn't care about him at all. I don't know about another Jaime's child. However, it has been 8 years since Tommen for Cersei, maybe she has become infertile.
Moreta User ID: 0701364	May 28th 1:17 AM I doubt it. Cersei's what, in her early thirties? Maybe she didn't dare to get pregnant by Jaime since it was common knowledge that Robert kept away from her bed?
Emily User ID: 2192024	May 29th 9:25 AM I don't think it was common knowledge...and anyway, Robert didn't exactly keep away from her bed, it's just that whenever he managed to stagger there, Cersei found other ways to satisfy him, which he was usually too drunk to remember by the next day. If she'd got pregnant by Jaime, all she had to do was to allow Robert sex with her once, and she'd have got away with having a child.
Cinis the Degenerate User ID: 2149564	May 29th 9:46 AM Cersei got pregnant by Jaime at least 4 times, she admitted as much. And I think the effectiveness of withdrawal is about 70 to 80% chance of not impregnating if it is the right time for a pregnancy. How much I know! :) Cinis the Degenerate, Who studies methods of contraception in depth...
Cinis the Degenerate User ID: 2149564	May 29th 10:19 AM Did some research, here's some more info: Rhythm method: 15-40% failiure rate. (that's 60-85% efficiency) Withdrawal method: 60-70% (10% off then) If they're combined you'd get an effectiveness of between: 100% - (40%40%) = 84% and 100% - (30%15%) = 95.5% So 84-95.5% effectiveness... not bad. => so I think Cersei is pretty safe, she won't have to have an abortion for a while. How interesting... :)
Blackstone User ID: 9858163	Jun 14th 4:07 PM Thanks for the info Cinis the Degenerate. 8) I think its clear that Cersei has access to herbs, etc. to "cleanse" herself. The real question is whether or not she would be stupid enough to have Lancel's childern.