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A Song of Ice and Fire / A Clash of Kings II / The Underground Conspiracy II

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KAH
User ID: 9209903 Sep 14th 5:23 AM
OK, last one broke down. We were debating (among other things) why Varys would want Viserys on the throne.

Jeff;

If you think about it, it's not all that implausible that Varys could merely be _loyal_ to the Targaryens, and nothing else. If that is the case, the quality of the coming Targaryen king is of secondary importance to him; what matters is that there is Dragon blood sitting on the throne.

After all, Varys didn't (as far as we know) betray Aerys, who seemed to be a _complete_ madman. If he could support a guy like that, he should have few compunctions about supporting Viserys, who (at least prior to his journey with Drogo) seemed like an at least halfway lucid guy.

Dany would of course be a better choice (even if it wouldn't have appeared that way in Pentos - she was firmly under her brother's thumb - a scared mouse), but she has to _get_ the throne first, and for that, they needed the Dothraki. Which would only come in play after selling Dany to Drogo!

So Viserys was, in effect, their only choice.

Now he is dead, and a new plan is probably already forming/formed. Dany's dragons goes a long way to make an invasion feasible.

Jeff
User ID: 0227464 Sep 14th 8:33 AM
All good points, Kay-Arne. I suppose it makes sense if Varys' primary motivation is loyalty to the Targaryens. I still have a hard time believing that Westeros would ever unite behind any Targaryen that arrived at the head of an army of Dothraki. Seems to me it would only intensify a general dislike of the family and, given the savagery of the Dothraki, likely would turn all of the common folk against them as well. Unless the Dothraki remained on Westeros to guarantee the throne, his reign would be a short one. But, if Varys' motivation is simply to put another Targaryen on the throne, I suppose there was no other alternative.

Donald S. Crankshaw
User ID: 9802413 Sep 14th 11:41 AM
Since I was having so much fun arguing that Varys was evil on the last thread before it broke, I'll continue it here. One argument was that there was no way that Varys could be in league with the Others since there seems to be a real communications barrier between the Others and humans. This response is what I was trying to post when the thread broke.

I don't so much propose that Varys is in league with the Others as with some dark god. Consider the story that Varys told about his becoming a eunuch. Now obviously the sorcerer who used him was communicating with _something_, and it did not seem particularly pleasant. But it was a force that humans could talk to and, apparently, bargain with. Let's say Varys is communicating with this or a similar creature (see my reasoning under the Varys thread in the Storm of Swords topic as to why Varys might be involved with sorcery: basically I thought his story made it more likely for him to be a sorcerer rather than less). This demon/god/whatever may have very good reason to want the Others to invade. They may even be his worshippers. Now, here's Varys offering his services in exchange for whatever sorcerers want: wealth, power, immortality, restoration of his manhood, whatever. Varys may not know about the Others at all. But this creature tells him what he needs to do in order to get what he wants: wreak total havoc in Westeros. And so he goes about doing it.

Assuming Varys was given some leeway in how he goes about wreaking havoc, this makes the most sense as the way to go about it. Set two of the most powerful houses against each other, then bring back the mad scion of a deposed, mad king with a foreign army at his back. So now we have a three way war, with lots of blood and destruction all over the place. The Dothraki are fierce and numerous, but there's no way they can conquer all of Westeros, since the leaders of both factions (Tywin and Eddard, supposedly) are too smart to meet them on the open field, and so sit inside their fortresses. So most of what they manage is looting and pillaging, which is probably their main purpose. Winter is coming and everyone is too busy fighting to prepare for it. Not only that, all the armies are burning crops and destroying supplies in order to make winter all the more deadly to their enemies. So when winter comes all the armies and the peasants, who have been ground down to a fraction of what they were to begin with anyway, start starving. Death, doom, and destruction all around, perfect for an invasion by the Others, whether Varys knows about them or not.

Of course, in order to get a Targaryen and the Dothraki for the stew he's making, Varys brings in Illyrio. Maybe Illyrio's a worshipper of the same god, or maybe Varys is using him like he does everyone else. In any case, Illyrio courts Viserys, sells Dany to the Dothraki, and recruits Mormont, who probably doesn't even know who he's working for.

And so Varys sows the seeds of total chaos, not even aware that he's being used. And what if he does realize that the Others are coming? He'll take a boat across the Narrow Sea when they come. It's not as if the Others have ships, after all. It's only Westeros that will fall to them.

Is this exactly how it's happening? Not a chance I'm that right. Is it possible? Certainly. Is it likely? I'll go out on the limb and say that I consider it more likely than Varys serving some noble purpose that unfortunately requires him to sacrifice a lot of innocents along the way, including 50 little "birds" whom he makes miserable in a more direct way than the thousands of others this war will cause to suffer.

KAH
User ID: 9209903 Sep 14th 12:03 PM
Donald;

Nice theory, but it seems to be easily shot down. When in the dungeons, Varys is clearly worried about the _timing_.

Now, if Varys actually wants to help the Targaryens back to power, this worrying is only natural - he wants to be sure that Viserys has the best chances possible to get the throne.

However, if the goal was only chaos and mayhem, there's no real need to worry about timing - when the Dothraki have landed, they can pillage, plunder and kill to their hearts extent. If Viserys complains; well, he is easily ignored or disposed of. This can be achieved in it's own good time.

So, the timing worry is not consistent with your theory, IMHO.

As for 'noble purposes'...I guess it depends on what you put into the term. I do not personally view an unquestioning 'ends justifies the means' approach as especially 'noble'.

Consider, for instance, the Kingsguard. How noble is it to watch an innocent man be cooked in his own armor, and not lift a finger to stop it? Not very noble, I should think; yet, their unquestioned loyalty makes them admired all over the realm.

If such men are capable of remaining passive bystanders to a horrid crime, why cannot the Spider also remain loyal? And do whatever he deems necessary to fulfill his loyalty?

Padraig
User ID: 2372774 Sep 15th 12:24 PM
I don't know KAH. We don't know of any oaths Varys swore which were as rigid in their loyalty to the king as the Kingsguard's were. Varys wants the Targaryens back and he seems prepared to do whatever it takes to do that. That's the main problem. Why? For the rewards? That would seem to contradict what he said to Ned in the dungeon. But then just because he recognises that the peasants are the people most effected by the Game of Thrones doesn't mean he cares himself.

Donald, I like the theory. We have had no hint though of a dark god except if it is Melisandre's Rh'oller. And i'm not sure whether this series will end up as the good guys verus Lord Blackness or some such thing. GRRM said something on those lines I think.

KAH
User ID: 9209903 Sep 15th 12:35 PM
Well, perhaps Varys was grateful to be taken into the Targaryen council?

It's not every day a foreigner eunuch no-name, formerly a mummer and urchin, is taken to the king's table as the king's own councillor.

Padraig
User ID: 2372774 Sep 15th 12:41 PM
But for the same reason shouldn't he have been grateful that Robert kept him on the council?

Donald S. Crankshaw
User ID: 9802413 Sep 15th 12:52 PM
KAH: If the conflict between the two houses is resolved by the time the Dothraki arrive, I don't see that the Dothraki would be such a threat. The combined might of Westeros _should_ be able to throw back 50,000 Dothraki. If there's fighting amongst the houses, then the Dothraki are much more effective at adding to the mayhem.

Padraig: I don't buy the face that Varys showed to Ned. It's inconsistent with his "birds," and the fact that he's actively trying to start a war. I think that was simply Varys's way of trying to get Ned to do what he wanted... to confess to betraying the King and take the Black in order to let things calm down. Remember what the context was... Varys was implicitly threatening Sansa's life. I think he was implying it would be at the Queen's hand rather than his own, but it made little difference.

Varys showed concern for innocents to two people, namely Ned and Tyrion. Ned is honorable, and maybe more compassionate than honorable (warning Cersei was an act of mercy, not honor). Tyrion makes no claims to being honorable, but he definitely feels pity for the defenseless and poor. I don't see Varys claims of caring for the common folk as any different than his claims of loyalty: and we all know what those are worth.

Ran
User ID: 0283314 Sep 15th 1:54 PM
Donald,

With the Dothraki closely related to historical groups like the Huns and Mongols ... I wouldn't bank on the combined might of Westeros being able to defeat them if they secure a landing point without problem.

While Ned Stark, Stannis Barathoen, and Tywin Lannister are intelligent enough to sit in their castles .... actually, I honestly don't know. The Mongols raised havoc throughout much of the known world, defeating armies of varying sizes and compositions. Medieval armies from Eastern Europe were cut to pieces.

I actually don't know about Jorah Mormont's opinion of how to defeat the Dothraki. Yes, they have no taste for sieges. But while Ned Stark, Tywin Lannister, and Stannis Baratheon are sitting it out in their castles .... the population of Westeros is going to be devastated (there's only so many people you can fit into strong castles or well-defended cities -- and then there's the matter of food, which you almost entirely give up by moving behind walls . . . )

I do think the key is the start. I think the hope is that the chaos keeps any effective response from being thrown together should the Dothraki begin to invade -- while they're on ships and trying to establish a beach head, there's a chance. But even united, one misstep could seriously give the Seven Kingdoms a nightmare.

Jeff
User ID: 0227464 Sep 15th 2:30 PM
Ran, I agree that the defeat of the Dothraki is far from certain even in a united Westeros. But their numbers are certainly less than the armies the Mongols fielded in eastern europe.

The Dothraki also seem to lack the Mongol's affinity for seige warfare. After all, if they were truly as dominant as the Mongols, they should have overrun the Free Cities long ago. And I can't see them having much success in the North. As for shipping, getting 60,000 or so mounted Dothraki _and_ remounts over to Westeros seems virtually impossible, even given a thousand ships.

One hopeful sign for Westeros is that even the blustery Robert appeared to consider them a very real military threat. That leads me to think he might have been smart enough not to confront them in open ground. If he did, I agree that he'd likely be toast.

Ran
User ID: 0283314 Sep 15th 2:44 PM
Ahh, but the Mongols conscripted defeated peoples to provide siege equipment and know-how.

I don't know if Drogo or his predecessors were brilliant enough to think of using siege engines ... but I should think Ilyrio could see to a few hundred Free City mercenaries with siege equipment to be a contingent in the invasion. Or the hope would be Dany quickly getting some people to proclaim her Queen when she lands and use them for such matters.

As to the numbers, 50,000 isn't so far off from some of the greater armies they sent against Eastern Europe. If I remember rightly, the expedition that destroyed the power of many of the Russian princes was tiny indeed, all considered -- some 10,000? 15,000?

And outside of Buda and Pest, I can't possibly remember the numbers involved, but I'd be shocked if it were far more than 60,000 on the Mongol side that can be legitimately attested to (realizing that most military figures in medieval times tended to be inflated by reporters.)

Of course, there's a good point concerning getting all those moving. I could only imagine that, if Drogo truly intended to lead the invasion, all of the Dothraki would have to go. I don't think he could afford to lead a portion and leave the rest to one of his kas.

So ... I suspect the idea is that there are enough ships (and more) in the eastern continent that could be hired to start ferrying over the Dothraki. Unrealistic, I suppose, but then it is supposed to be a big and fairly highly developed continent.

Donald S. Crankshaw
User ID: 9802413 Sep 15th 7:01 PM
I don't know enough about the Mongols, so could you tell me how big the armies opposing them were? A united Westeros can field an army at least as large as 100,000 from what we've seen, but only a fraction of those would be mounted. So I guess there is a real question of who would win _if_ the Dothraki could establish a beach head and wage wat in the open.

Ran
User ID: 0283314 Sep 15th 7:13 PM
Oh, the medieval armies would be nothing near as large, I should think, though the ratio of horse-to-infantry would be about the same.

Suffice to say, Jorah is essentially right when it comes to the vast majority -- the levies of foot and the lighter armed horsemen just can't stand up to the arrow fire. The knights in their plate or heavy chain would certainly pose an obstacle to the Dothraki ... but consider: great big heavy charges, heavy armor.

The Dothraki: swift, enduring horses, no armor. They can do the typical nomadic trick of constantly moving, sorties moving close to launch arrows and then fading away.

The closest analouge would be the way the crusaders of the Latin Kingdom were often unable to enter any serious conflict with the Syrian forces. They kept shooting arrows then racing away. But much less poorly than the Mongols did, in truth. There were times when a tiny number of knights managed to send (reportedly) huge armies fleeing with one good irresistable charge.

So ... I don't know. Whatever lords hide in their castles aren't doing a favor to the Seven Kingdoms. They're just letting the Dothraki run rampant and kill smallfolk. Those who go into open conflict will be cut to pieces, unless it's a very strong force under smart command choosing it's own ground.

labor
User ID: 8479113 Sep 16th 6:18 AM

Ran, the Mongols had a few things the Dothraki patently don't:

1. Single leadership with a very clear command structure.

2.Organization and iron discipline, i.e. units of 10, 100, 1000 and 10000 men which there bound by co-responsibility. If a man displayed cowardice or commited treason, for instance, the other 9 of his "10" were executed together with him and in some fancy manner, too.

3. Numbers (this applies to the Huns and any conquering nomad culture, too). Their military doctrine demanded that they have the odds on their side. For the most part (except in China), they outnumbered their enemies at least 2:1. At Kalka, IIRC, it was 3:1 (the Mongols had 20000, two veteran "tumen") and the russian princes were as disorganized as one can wish. IIRC some of them went home before battle because of traditional grudges and misunderstandings.
BTW, after Kalka the Mongols just turned around and went away. The conquest of Russia began 10-20 years afterwards and with far greater numbers still.

4. Chinese engineers.

Morever, Westeros armies are much more disciplined and numerous than their mideival europenean counter-parts. The Reach alone can raise 60K, Dorne 50K, etc.

So, I don't see 40000 Dothraki conquering Westeros. The most they could do would be cause some substantial chaos.

Ran
User ID: 0283314 Sep 16th 6:38 AM
1. The Dothraki did have a single leader, Drogo. We don't know what the command structure of the kos is, but given that each ko had a group of men around him ... you can Drogo, then his bloodriders, then his kos and their would-be bloodriders, on down the line.

2. We don't know if the Dothraki have similar systems.

3. Been too long since I've read up on the Mongolian matters, so no immediate response. ;) Could the Seven Kingdoms instantly throw up 50,000+ men to combat the Dothraki should they land? I don't know. It depends on the situation. As I said, a mis-step even in a united Westeros could mean the end of the Seven Kingdoms.

4. See prior posts concerning Free City mercenaries with siege equipment, or people bending the knee to Dany and providing that expertise.

The problem with these 'raising' numbers is it takes time. How many weeks did it take Robb to gather his 20,000? How long did it take Renly to gather together his 80,000+?

The Dothraki are fast. If they came in without enough warning, someone's in trouble. Piecemeal resistance will be cut to pieces, obviously.

Padraig
User ID: 8562343 Sep 16th 1:07 PM
If the Dothraki do ever invade then the one thing the Westerosi should have is time. For shouldn't it take weeks if not months to gather up enough ships to send over the whole Dothraki army and all the various essential extras, like horses and supplies. True if Westeros is still in the midst of a civil war it may be difficult to organise a proper resistance but they will surely know.

Ran
User ID: 0283314 Sep 16th 1:49 PM
I don't know. So far, the only clear contact with the Free Cities is Varys -- and he's involved in the plot. If he withholds information .... who can say?

Also, there's Ilyrio. How much influence does he have? Could he convince the other Free Cities to help out and keep quiet as they'll ultimately profit from the endeavour as well (or, at least, so he'd argue)? Again, not something anyone can say much about.

Padraig
User ID: 8562343 Sep 16th 1:56 PM
I would expect merchants in Westeros to know. And you would think it would be in their interest to prevent the Dothraki from looting the country. It would take a gigantic conpiracy for word not to reach the noblemen.

An ideal job for Littlefinger.

Dirj
User ID: 0094674 Sep 19th 9:35 PM
Hmm, Ran, Kal Drogo wasn't the ruler of "all" the Dothraki; He just ruled a portion of them. What percentage, I couldn't say, but he was always warring against the other Kal's.

ab

Ran
User ID: 0283314 Sep 20th 3:02 AM
When I say Dothraki, I mean Drogo's Dothraki, of course. :)

As to Padraig's point (been remiss in a quick response since I've been considering it) ... well, it's a very good point. How much direct contact the merchants of Westeros have with the Free Cities I couldn't say, really, but certainly something could slip.

Next 20 Messages Newest Messages

KAH User ID: 9209903	Sep 14th 5:23 AM OK, last one broke down. We were debating (among other things) why Varys would want Viserys on the throne. Jeff; If you think about it, it's not all that implausible that Varys could merely be _loyal_ to the Targaryens, and nothing else. If that is the case, the quality of the coming Targaryen king is of secondary importance to him; what matters is that there is Dragon blood sitting on the throne. After all, Varys didn't (as far as we know) betray Aerys, who seemed to be a _complete_ madman. If he could support a guy like that, he should have few compunctions about supporting Viserys, who (at least prior to his journey with Drogo) seemed like an at least halfway lucid guy. Dany would of course be a better choice (even if it wouldn't have appeared that way in Pentos - she was firmly under her brother's thumb - a scared mouse), but she has to _get_ the throne first, and for that, they needed the Dothraki. Which would only come in play after selling Dany to Drogo! So Viserys was, in effect, their only choice. Now he is dead, and a new plan is probably already forming/formed. Dany's dragons goes a long way to make an invasion feasible.
Jeff User ID: 0227464	Sep 14th 8:33 AM All good points, Kay-Arne. I suppose it makes sense if Varys' primary motivation is loyalty to the Targaryens. I still have a hard time believing that Westeros would ever unite behind any Targaryen that arrived at the head of an army of Dothraki. Seems to me it would only intensify a general dislike of the family and, given the savagery of the Dothraki, likely would turn all of the common folk against them as well. Unless the Dothraki remained on Westeros to guarantee the throne, his reign would be a short one. But, if Varys' motivation is simply to put another Targaryen on the throne, I suppose there was no other alternative.
Donald S. Crankshaw User ID: 9802413	Sep 14th 11:41 AM Since I was having so much fun arguing that Varys was evil on the last thread before it broke, I'll continue it here. One argument was that there was no way that Varys could be in league with the Others since there seems to be a real communications barrier between the Others and humans. This response is what I was trying to post when the thread broke. I don't so much propose that Varys is in league with the Others as with some dark god. Consider the story that Varys told about his becoming a eunuch. Now obviously the sorcerer who used him was communicating with _something_, and it did not seem particularly pleasant. But it was a force that humans could talk to and, apparently, bargain with. Let's say Varys is communicating with this or a similar creature (see my reasoning under the Varys thread in the Storm of Swords topic as to why Varys might be involved with sorcery: basically I thought his story made it more likely for him to be a sorcerer rather than less). This demon/god/whatever may have very good reason to want the Others to invade. They may even be his worshippers. Now, here's Varys offering his services in exchange for whatever sorcerers want: wealth, power, immortality, restoration of his manhood, whatever. Varys may not know about the Others at all. But this creature tells him what he needs to do in order to get what he wants: wreak total havoc in Westeros. And so he goes about doing it. Assuming Varys was given some leeway in how he goes about wreaking havoc, this makes the most sense as the way to go about it. Set two of the most powerful houses against each other, then bring back the mad scion of a deposed, mad king with a foreign army at his back. So now we have a three way war, with lots of blood and destruction all over the place. The Dothraki are fierce and numerous, but there's no way they can conquer all of Westeros, since the leaders of both factions (Tywin and Eddard, supposedly) are too smart to meet them on the open field, and so sit inside their fortresses. So most of what they manage is looting and pillaging, which is probably their main purpose. Winter is coming and everyone is too busy fighting to prepare for it. Not only that, all the armies are burning crops and destroying supplies in order to make winter all the more deadly to their enemies. So when winter comes all the armies and the peasants, who have been ground down to a fraction of what they were to begin with anyway, start starving. Death, doom, and destruction all around, perfect for an invasion by the Others, whether Varys knows about them or not. Of course, in order to get a Targaryen and the Dothraki for the stew he's making, Varys brings in Illyrio. Maybe Illyrio's a worshipper of the same god, or maybe Varys is using him like he does everyone else. In any case, Illyrio courts Viserys, sells Dany to the Dothraki, and recruits Mormont, who probably doesn't even know who he's working for. And so Varys sows the seeds of total chaos, not even aware that he's being used. And what if he does realize that the Others are coming? He'll take a boat across the Narrow Sea when they come. It's not as if the Others have ships, after all. It's only Westeros that will fall to them. Is this exactly how it's happening? Not a chance I'm that right. Is it possible? Certainly. Is it likely? I'll go out on the limb and say that I consider it more likely than Varys serving some noble purpose that unfortunately requires him to sacrifice a lot of innocents along the way, including 50 little "birds" whom he makes miserable in a more direct way than the thousands of others this war will cause to suffer.
KAH User ID: 9209903	Sep 14th 12:03 PM Donald; Nice theory, but it seems to be easily shot down. When in the dungeons, Varys is clearly worried about the _timing_. Now, if Varys actually wants to help the Targaryens back to power, this worrying is only natural - he wants to be sure that Viserys has the best chances possible to get the throne. However, if the goal was only chaos and mayhem, there's no real need to worry about timing - when the Dothraki have landed, they can pillage, plunder and kill to their hearts extent. If Viserys complains; well, he is easily ignored or disposed of. This can be achieved in it's own good time. So, the timing worry is not consistent with your theory, IMHO. As for 'noble purposes'...I guess it depends on what you put into the term. I do not personally view an unquestioning 'ends justifies the means' approach as especially 'noble'. Consider, for instance, the Kingsguard. How noble is it to watch an innocent man be cooked in his own armor, and not lift a finger to stop it? Not very noble, I should think; yet, their unquestioned loyalty makes them admired all over the realm. If such men are capable of remaining passive bystanders to a horrid crime, why cannot the Spider also remain loyal? And do whatever he deems necessary to fulfill his loyalty?
Padraig User ID: 2372774	Sep 15th 12:24 PM I don't know KAH. We don't know of any oaths Varys swore which were as rigid in their loyalty to the king as the Kingsguard's were. Varys wants the Targaryens back and he seems prepared to do whatever it takes to do that. That's the main problem. Why? For the rewards? That would seem to contradict what he said to Ned in the dungeon. But then just because he recognises that the peasants are the people most effected by the Game of Thrones doesn't mean he cares himself. Donald, I like the theory. We have had no hint though of a dark god except if it is Melisandre's Rh'oller. And i'm not sure whether this series will end up as the good guys verus Lord Blackness or some such thing. GRRM said something on those lines I think.
KAH User ID: 9209903	Sep 15th 12:35 PM Well, perhaps Varys was grateful to be taken into the Targaryen council? It's not every day a foreigner eunuch no-name, formerly a mummer and urchin, is taken to the king's table as the king's own councillor.
Padraig User ID: 2372774	Sep 15th 12:41 PM But for the same reason shouldn't he have been grateful that Robert kept him on the council?
Donald S. Crankshaw User ID: 9802413	Sep 15th 12:52 PM KAH: If the conflict between the two houses is resolved by the time the Dothraki arrive, I don't see that the Dothraki would be such a threat. The combined might of Westeros _should_ be able to throw back 50,000 Dothraki. If there's fighting amongst the houses, then the Dothraki are much more effective at adding to the mayhem. Padraig: I don't buy the face that Varys showed to Ned. It's inconsistent with his "birds," and the fact that he's actively trying to start a war. I think that was simply Varys's way of trying to get Ned to do what he wanted... to confess to betraying the King and take the Black in order to let things calm down. Remember what the context was... Varys was implicitly threatening Sansa's life. I think he was implying it would be at the Queen's hand rather than his own, but it made little difference. Varys showed concern for innocents to two people, namely Ned and Tyrion. Ned is honorable, and maybe more compassionate than honorable (warning Cersei was an act of mercy, not honor). Tyrion makes no claims to being honorable, but he definitely feels pity for the defenseless and poor. I don't see Varys claims of caring for the common folk as any different than his claims of loyalty: and we all know what those are worth.
Ran User ID: 0283314	Sep 15th 1:54 PM Donald, With the Dothraki closely related to historical groups like the Huns and Mongols ... I wouldn't bank on the combined might of Westeros being able to defeat them if they secure a landing point without problem. While Ned Stark, Stannis Barathoen, and Tywin Lannister are intelligent enough to sit in their castles .... actually, I honestly don't know. The Mongols raised havoc throughout much of the known world, defeating armies of varying sizes and compositions. Medieval armies from Eastern Europe were cut to pieces. I actually don't know about Jorah Mormont's opinion of how to defeat the Dothraki. Yes, they have no taste for sieges. But while Ned Stark, Tywin Lannister, and Stannis Baratheon are sitting it out in their castles .... the population of Westeros is going to be devastated (there's only so many people you can fit into strong castles or well-defended cities -- and then there's the matter of food, which you almost entirely give up by moving behind walls . . . ) I do think the key is the start. I think the hope is that the chaos keeps any effective response from being thrown together should the Dothraki begin to invade -- while they're on ships and trying to establish a beach head, there's a chance. But even united, one misstep could seriously give the Seven Kingdoms a nightmare.
Jeff User ID: 0227464	Sep 15th 2:30 PM Ran, I agree that the defeat of the Dothraki is far from certain even in a united Westeros. But their numbers are certainly less than the armies the Mongols fielded in eastern europe. The Dothraki also seem to lack the Mongol's affinity for seige warfare. After all, if they were truly as dominant as the Mongols, they should have overrun the Free Cities long ago. And I can't see them having much success in the North. As for shipping, getting 60,000 or so mounted Dothraki _and_ remounts over to Westeros seems virtually impossible, even given a thousand ships. One hopeful sign for Westeros is that even the blustery Robert appeared to consider them a very real military threat. That leads me to think he might have been smart enough not to confront them in open ground. If he did, I agree that he'd likely be toast.
Ran User ID: 0283314	Sep 15th 2:44 PM Ahh, but the Mongols conscripted defeated peoples to provide siege equipment and know-how. I don't know if Drogo or his predecessors were brilliant enough to think of using siege engines ... but I should think Ilyrio could see to a few hundred Free City mercenaries with siege equipment to be a contingent in the invasion. Or the hope would be Dany quickly getting some people to proclaim her Queen when she lands and use them for such matters. As to the numbers, 50,000 isn't so far off from some of the greater armies they sent against Eastern Europe. If I remember rightly, the expedition that destroyed the power of many of the Russian princes was tiny indeed, all considered -- some 10,000? 15,000? And outside of Buda and Pest, I can't possibly remember the numbers involved, but I'd be shocked if it were far more than 60,000 on the Mongol side that can be legitimately attested to (realizing that most military figures in medieval times tended to be inflated by reporters.) Of course, there's a good point concerning getting all those moving. I could only imagine that, if Drogo truly intended to lead the invasion, all of the Dothraki would have to go. I don't think he could afford to lead a portion and leave the rest to one of his kas. So ... I suspect the idea is that there are enough ships (and more) in the eastern continent that could be hired to start ferrying over the Dothraki. Unrealistic, I suppose, but then it is supposed to be a big and fairly highly developed continent.
Donald S. Crankshaw User ID: 9802413	Sep 15th 7:01 PM I don't know enough about the Mongols, so could you tell me how big the armies opposing them were? A united Westeros can field an army at least as large as 100,000 from what we've seen, but only a fraction of those would be mounted. So I guess there is a real question of who would win _if_ the Dothraki could establish a beach head and wage wat in the open.
Ran User ID: 0283314	Sep 15th 7:13 PM Oh, the medieval armies would be nothing near as large, I should think, though the ratio of horse-to-infantry would be about the same. Suffice to say, Jorah is essentially right when it comes to the vast majority -- the levies of foot and the lighter armed horsemen just can't stand up to the arrow fire. The knights in their plate or heavy chain would certainly pose an obstacle to the Dothraki ... but consider: great big heavy charges, heavy armor. The Dothraki: swift, enduring horses, no armor. They can do the typical nomadic trick of constantly moving, sorties moving close to launch arrows and then fading away. The closest analouge would be the way the crusaders of the Latin Kingdom were often unable to enter any serious conflict with the Syrian forces. They kept shooting arrows then racing away. But much less poorly than the Mongols did, in truth. There were times when a tiny number of knights managed to send (reportedly) huge armies fleeing with one good irresistable charge. So ... I don't know. Whatever lords hide in their castles aren't doing a favor to the Seven Kingdoms. They're just letting the Dothraki run rampant and kill smallfolk. Those who go into open conflict will be cut to pieces, unless it's a very strong force under smart command choosing it's own ground.
labor User ID: 8479113	Sep 16th 6:18 AM Ran, the Mongols had a few things the Dothraki patently don't: 1. Single leadership with a very clear command structure. 2.Organization and iron discipline, i.e. units of 10, 100, 1000 and 10000 men which there bound by co-responsibility. If a man displayed cowardice or commited treason, for instance, the other 9 of his "10" were executed together with him and in some fancy manner, too. 3. Numbers (this applies to the Huns and any conquering nomad culture, too). Their military doctrine demanded that they have the odds on their side. For the most part (except in China), they outnumbered their enemies at least 2:1. At Kalka, IIRC, it was 3:1 (the Mongols had 20000, two veteran "tumen") and the russian princes were as disorganized as one can wish. IIRC some of them went home before battle because of traditional grudges and misunderstandings. BTW, after Kalka the Mongols just turned around and went away. The conquest of Russia began 10-20 years afterwards and with far greater numbers still. 4. Chinese engineers. Morever, Westeros armies are much more disciplined and numerous than their mideival europenean counter-parts. The Reach alone can raise 60K, Dorne 50K, etc. So, I don't see 40000 Dothraki conquering Westeros. The most they could do would be cause some substantial chaos.
Ran User ID: 0283314	Sep 16th 6:38 AM 1. The Dothraki did have a single leader, Drogo. We don't know what the command structure of the kos is, but given that each ko had a group of men around him ... you can Drogo, then his bloodriders, then his kos and their would-be bloodriders, on down the line. 2. We don't know if the Dothraki have similar systems. 3. Been too long since I've read up on the Mongolian matters, so no immediate response. ;) Could the Seven Kingdoms instantly throw up 50,000+ men to combat the Dothraki should they land? I don't know. It depends on the situation. As I said, a mis-step even in a united Westeros could mean the end of the Seven Kingdoms. 4. See prior posts concerning Free City mercenaries with siege equipment, or people bending the knee to Dany and providing that expertise. The problem with these 'raising' numbers is it takes time. How many weeks did it take Robb to gather his 20,000? How long did it take Renly to gather together his 80,000+? The Dothraki are fast. If they came in without enough warning, someone's in trouble. Piecemeal resistance will be cut to pieces, obviously.
Padraig User ID: 8562343	Sep 16th 1:07 PM If the Dothraki do ever invade then the one thing the Westerosi should have is time. For shouldn't it take weeks if not months to gather up enough ships to send over the whole Dothraki army and all the various essential extras, like horses and supplies. True if Westeros is still in the midst of a civil war it may be difficult to organise a proper resistance but they will surely know.
Ran User ID: 0283314	Sep 16th 1:49 PM I don't know. So far, the only clear contact with the Free Cities is Varys -- and he's involved in the plot. If he withholds information .... who can say? Also, there's Ilyrio. How much influence does he have? Could he convince the other Free Cities to help out and keep quiet as they'll ultimately profit from the endeavour as well (or, at least, so he'd argue)? Again, not something anyone can say much about.
Padraig User ID: 8562343	Sep 16th 1:56 PM I would expect merchants in Westeros to know. And you would think it would be in their interest to prevent the Dothraki from looting the country. It would take a gigantic conpiracy for word not to reach the noblemen. An ideal job for Littlefinger.
Dirj User ID: 0094674	Sep 19th 9:35 PM Hmm, Ran, Kal Drogo wasn't the ruler of "all" the Dothraki; He just ruled a portion of them. What percentage, I couldn't say, but he was always warring against the other Kal's. ab
Ran User ID: 0283314	Sep 20th 3:02 AM When I say Dothraki, I mean Drogo's Dothraki, of course. :) As to Padraig's point (been remiss in a quick response since I've been considering it) ... well, it's a very good point. How much direct contact the merchants of Westeros have with the Free Cities I couldn't say, really, but certainly something could slip.