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A Song of Ice and Fire / A Clash of Kings II / The Spider

Next 20 Messages
Relic
User ID: 8980403
Nov 18th 4:49 PM
Ok, so i know all these topics have been beaten to death, but i still have a few questions and iu couldnt find any old Varys threads. Supossedly Varys wants to bring back the Targaryen line to rule Westros. His conversation with illyrio seems to point to that. But...

In AGOT Robert commands the small council to kill Danys off. His hatred for the Targaryens suprpassed his honor, as we know. So our esteemed Spider hires assassins to do poor Dany away.

Now unless Varys knew before hand that Robert would soon be dead, and this isnt too farfetched of an idea, he would have to come up with results for his larger than life Liege Lord. But im assuming he did hire assassins based on the attempt on Dany's life later on.

On his deathbed Robert asked Ned to do what he can and call off the assassination. Ned goes to Varys who tells him that its too late but that he would try and see what he can do.

Danys is in the market, sans Jorah Mormont, who went to get a letter from whom he says is Illyrio.
He comes back just in time to catch the would be assassin. Now assuming that the letter told Mormont to foil the assassination just what exactly is Varys doing?? He was seemingly willing to Kill Danys. Doesnt sound like someone trying to bring the Targaryen line back into Westros. Now maybe they thought they didnt need Danys because they had her retarded brother in check, but he was already dead at the time. Does anyone have anything they can tell me? besides the fact that i dont know what im talking about?
Ran
User ID: 8075153
Nov 18th 5:09 PM
I don't think Varys necessarily needed "results", as such, but certainly being able to report a failed assassination attempt by some freelancer is better than complete silence.

However, the thing is, my reading of it is that it just folded into Varys' plans anyhow. The attempted assassination had the result of finally getting Drogo to begin preparations for an invasion of Westeros.

This is how I see it: Jorah left Dany in the market to pick up letters. Among them was one from Ilyrio containing information from Varys -- there's an assassin, named thus, acting as a wine merchants, and so on, who will try to poison Daenerys. Follow her through the market.

Frankly, it's too much coincidence that Jorah "just" happens to show up in time. I really believe he followed her and waited to make it look like a near thing, because having the guy arrested before he tried anything wouldn't have the same effect on Drogo.
Relic
User ID: 8980403
Nov 18th 7:02 PM
Thats pretty much my take on it too Ran, What did trouble me though is Varys having to report to Robert that he couldnt have Dany killed...i dont think that would have gon eover well. So maybe Varys knew of Roberts impending death?
Ran
User ID: 8075153
Nov 19th 3:12 AM
Well, I think maybe he did expect something, but ... It could have been a long, long time before Varys would get in trouble for that. After all, they decided to do it freelancer style. Varys wouldn't have to be held accountable for any of the assassins if they failed. Well, not immediately, at least.
Min
User ID: 1446254
Nov 19th 3:51 AM
You surely know the fairy tale of Snowwhite and the seven dwarfs? "And the hunter pitied her, and he killed a deer and took his heart, and he told the poor girl to run, run and hide and never some back. He took the heart of the deer and brought it back to the castle and gave it to the evil stepmother and said: "I killed her. As evidence, I brought Snowwhite's heart".

I think Varys has more honour than most of us think. Only it is _his_ kind of honour. He hired assassins for sure. And he made sure at the same time that they would not succeed.

Only question here: When Ned came to ask him to stop the assassination, why did he not tell him? The only thing I can think of is: Varys wanted to help the Targaryans get back the throne. Ned only wanted to spare a poor girl's life. Varys did not want to trust Ned in this because he feared Ned, who helped dispose of the old Targaryan's reign, would have changed his mind knowing the truth, beginning to see Dany as the real danger she is to Westeros... wdyt?
Padraig
User ID: 8270083
Nov 19th 12:26 PM
Well, I wouldn't think Ned could stomach assasination even in that case. That person would have to have done something vile for Ned to seriously consider such a thing. But otherwise I agree.
Steve
User ID: 9084913
Nov 19th 8:59 PM
Unless Dany is the diversion and Jon is the Targaryen that Varys intends to bring back.
Relic
User ID: 8980403
Nov 19th 10:17 PM
If Varys knew Jon was Targaryen i dont think the bastard would be freezing his manhood up on the wall.

Ned wrote a letter before his untimely death, a letter Varys said he might or might not deliver. We did not see any character recieve a letter from the Lord Stark in ACOK, although Ran did point out that Maester Aemon tells Jon some seemingly unneccisary stuff about Targaryen lineage in the first few chapters. Is this a result of Ned's letter? Who knows.

Min im re-reading the books now and i do kind of see what you mean about Varys and honor, althought its not at all the sort of honor most men in Westros respect. But i still have very uneasy feelings about Varys.
Steve
User ID: 9084913
Nov 19th 10:39 PM
If Varys thought Jon was a Targaryen, the Wall would be the perfect place for him. No danger. Common misconception, the "Others" are children stories. Warlords don't attack the Watch. Politics doesn't touch the Wall.

All in all, Varys might think Jon perfectly safe freezing his manhood off at the Wall.

Relic
User ID: 8980403
Nov 19th 10:50 PM
True enough, is there anything in the text that brought you to that conclusion Steve?
Steve
User ID: 9084913
Nov 20th 0:36 AM
Nothing specific. I make a lot of assumptions. They are sequentially (more or less)-
1. Jon is Lyanna and Rhaegar's son;
2. Jon is legitimate;
3. Vary's was just as cunning and well-informed during the Mad King's riegn as he is currently;
4. This means he probably knew of Lyanna's pregnancy and birth of Jon (spies everywhere, including midwives) and his legitimacy;
5. Varys is a Targaryen loyalist;
6. He knew Ned would protect Jon;
7. Like most spies, he likes to misdirect his opponents and conceal info without appearing to conceal it- thus encouraging Robert and Co. to focus on Visery and Dany;
8. He intended to reveal Jon only after the kingdom had been plunged into civil war, weakening the great houses and making the common people dream of the good old Targaryen days, then gathering certian hard core Targaryen loyalists to support Jon's claim;
9. Danys bringing out the Dragons caught him by surprise as much as anyone else.

All of the above is a fragile house of cards. It doesn't take much to knock it down but its a theory I'm working on. I need the next book to see if there is any hits in there. GRRM, hurry up!
labor
User ID: 8785553
Nov 20th 4:55 AM
Steve, I'd have to disagree there. Being an apostate Black Brother is the last thing a successful Targaryen candidate needs. His credentials must be spotless to be accepted. It would be tricky enough to prove that Jon is Rhaegar's son, given that he has none of his looks, it will be even trickier to prove that he is legitimate (and some people will never truly believe it). If he is an oathbreaker as well... That will be just too much, IMHO.

Also, Varys believes in supernatural - he would be the last person to summarily discount the notion of "Others". And even only with wildlings, murderers turned Black Brothers (remember Noye's caution to Jon that he might get his throat cut in his sleep) and harsh climat to contend with, it is far from "safe" on the Wall.

And, the Martells are unlikely to support Lyanna's son. And if not them, then who of the great lords will be the first to throw their support to the Targaryen heir? Not the Tyrells at the time Varys concoted his plan - they were already too close to Renly.

But I agree with you that it is plausible and even likely that Dany originally was the "mummer's dragon", i.e. misdirection. Who is the real thing? Well, maybe Varys has a decendent of Aerion's up his sleeve. That would have an advantage that he/she won't be closely related to Aerys and Rhaegar and thus more acceptable to everyone. Who knows?
On the loony side, I'll confess that I am an "Aegonian", i.e. I believe and nothing short of the future books themselves will convince me otherwise, that Prince Aegon is alive. After all,if Varys was as resourceful then as he "is" now, he "is" now, everything could happen.
Ran
User ID: 8075153
Nov 20th 5:45 AM
Hrm.

Well, here's my guess. Varys wasn't aware of Jon. If the scenario is as it seems -- Rhaegar marrying Lyanna out in Dorne and keeping her relatively locked up under the watch of the Daynes in Starfall -- then I think the limited contact and
extreme secrecy suggests that the most Varys would have learned of was that .. well, Rhaegar marrying Lyanna. I suspect he'd take this as explaination as to why he set three Kingsguard at the Tower of Joy.

I don't really believe Aegon's alive, because Martin has more or less clearly stated so. The kid in that vision was surely Aegon, and he's dead. I don't think Martin will play word games by later
revealing Aegon and claiming, 'Well, he's dead as Aegon -- he's now called Joe. Hah hah, got ya.'

But, hey, that's me. I also prefer the idea that the two other heads (besides Jon) must be female to mirror the Aegon-Rhaenys-Visenya grouping, but that's just my gut instinct. It has absolutely nothing at all to do with my personal looney theories concerning Meera or Marei. Nope, none at all. ;)
Relic
User ID: 0478154
Nov 20th 7:01 AM
Does anyone know how long Varys has been in service at King's Landing? I ve tried to find something to pinpoint it in the texts but i failed.
Ran
User ID: 8075153
Nov 20th 7:30 AM
There's really nothing, which is of course interesting.

My personal suspicion is that he came to prominence as the King's Spider with Aerys' reign, but that's just my guess on the matter.
Steve
User ID: 9084913
Nov 20th 7:53 AM
Even if Varys believed in the Others thay have been quite for 8,000 years. I think he might estimate (wrongly) that they'd stay quite for a year or two more.

As to the Watch being inherently dangerous, that's true. But so is the life of everyone. Sickness, disease, war, accident. Jon is just as likely to be killed in a battle as a squire as have his throat cut by one of his Watch brothers, so Varys didn't really increase the risk factor.

As to the oath thing, I doubt Varys really foresaw the possibility that Jon would be shipped off to the Wall. It was a surprise thing, even to Ned who was initially resistant to the idea.

As to troops, if Jon was proved to be a Targaryen, I think he could pick up the Starks, Tullys (especially if all other Stark and Tully leaders are dead, ala Henry 7), and, maybe, the Wildings (if he promised to give them lands to the South). He might pick up the Lannisters if Tyrion was in charge. Other than that he'd have to rely on those men from what were traditionally Targaryen lands. I presum Robert took control of whem when he passed off Storm's End and Baratheon lands to his brothers.
Padraig
User ID: 1453344
Nov 20th 12:11 PM
Steve, you say that Varys never saw the possibility that Jon would be shipped off to the wall. But that's Varys inherent problem with Jon. He had nobody to control him like he had Illyrio to guide Dany and Viserys.

Its an interesting idea but I can't see how he can give Jon the support to take the throne.
LindaElane
User ID: 7733333
Nov 20th 4:20 PM
I very much like the idea that Varys is secretly supporting Jon. I believe the basic motivation of Varys is to prevent war, however, he is willing to sacrifice some lives in order to achieve what he sees as the greater good. I do think, which spies and henchmen everywhere, and with the delay in Jon's arrival at the wall and his taking of vows, that Varys could have prevented Jon from taking vows if he wanted to.

I think Varys probably thought it over and came to the following conclusions:

1)The others pose a huge threat to society, even though it will not respond now,
2) If a hero arose under these circumstances and defeated the others, the people would flock to him and there could be a chance for unity in the kingdom.
3) If this hero were the rightful King, legitimate son of Rhegar and Lyanna, so much the better chance for unity.
4) Once the others are defeated, there will not be further need for a Night's Watch, and the men will be released from their vows.

Thus, I believe Varys is gambling upon Jon's becoming a great leader and defeating the others. Knowing Varys, he probably has Plan B (and C and D,etc) if this does not take place.
Ran
User ID: 8075153
Nov 20th 4:34 PM
Well now, like I said, I don't think Varys is aware of Jon.

But, assuming he is, and assuming his reasoning as above ...

Four is fallacious. The Others were defeated 8,000 years ago, but it certainly wasn't a _complete_ destruction. Perhaps now, with the dragons, he can hope for it -- but they didn't exist until well after Jon took his vows.

As is, I think he'd have to be insane to assume the Others could be totally defeated, if they weren't totally defeated by all the heroes of the First Men, the children of the forest, etc.

So, maybe he sees some other way of getting Jon out of the vows -- like, a Grand Council.
KAH
User ID: 9209903
Dec 16th 5:34 PM
I don't recall if this has been brought up before, but in my present re-read of aGoT, I picked up on a few things...


You know how Varys knows of all the hidden passages in the Red Keep?

Well, Maegor the Cruel had those passages crafted, and later killed all of the masons who had participated in the building, so that _no one but the Targaryens would know about them_!

How does Varys know of them? Did he stumble over them by surprise (not likely, IMHO)? Did Aerys tell him about them specifically? In that case, why? Is it custom to let the master of whisperers know about the little family secret?
Could this in any way give further proof that Varys have his loyalties with the Targaryens?



Oh...as an aside, one of the hills in KL, is crowned by the ruined 'Dragonpit'. What is this? Is it the Targaryen Dragons' version of a stable? :o)
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