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A Song of Ice and Fire / A Clash of Kings II / The Attempted Assassination of Bran II

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Ran
User ID: 0867924 		Apr 17th 1:44 PM
The previous thread died an early death, alas. ;) So, here's some reposting of the last few things:

Jeff posted:

Suppose the assassin is captured and talks -- not that unlikely a possibility. If he spills the beans, one of those beans is that he was told to leave the dagger behind. Now that immediately suggests a frame-up to anybody with even half a clue. I don't think even Catelyn would have missed that one. So now the Starks are tipped off that someone is trying to frame someone else for the murder of a Stark child. I'm not sure how that plays out, but I don't see it helping Littlefinger at all.

Claidhaim posted:

All this to bring Catelyn to KIng's Landing? Ned would have wound up trusting Littlefinger anyway. For no other reason than Petyr could have convinced Ned that he was his only friend, except Robert, that he could trust. Ned would have bought it eventually. Surrounded by Lannisters and their lackeys, Petyr wouldn't have had much trouble gaining Ned's confidence. Catelyn was useful for that, but it's not enough of a reason to bring her to King's Landing in the first place.

Nah, killing a stark kid just to save a month or two on a plot as complex as what you are proposing is not what I'd call good plot making.

Petyr took advantage of the opportunity provided by Catelyn coming to King's Landing. He didn't orchestrate the whole thing.
Claidhaim
User ID: 8590713 		Apr 17th 1:47 PM
Littlefinger could have moved Ned along anonymously as well. He didn't have to meet w/him face to face to steer him towards the truth about Jaime and Cercie.
Ran
User ID: 0867924 		Apr 17th 1:49 PM
Reposting continues. :)

Ran posted:

Heh. Okay, you know, this is sort of a 'whatever' situation, since if you don't like GUCT, you won't like it however much information is presented. It's clear that Littlefinger was _not_ going to convince Ned that he was the one and only friend he had, outside of Robert.

Hell, Littlefinger's first words to Ned aggravate him. There's a little bad blood (re: Brandon), and just a mutual dislike of each other's type, that would keep it from happening. Even if Littlefinger had months to win that trust, I think it's clear that he didn't want to _bet_ on having months. He wanted -- maybe percieving a need -- to be in on things now rather than later. And, well, it certainly worked to his advantage.

The problem is that Littlefinger would be aware of things being set up to some degree (because Varys was pulling the strings), though perhaps not for what purpose, and he certainly would not know when it was going to come crashing down -- either by Varys or by happenstance.

He's more or less racing against Varys, I think, to take advantage of the situation -- since, for example, he doesn't know if Varys might lead Ned to the truth in a month's time or in three years time. Whatever hold he claims he has on Varys does not seem to be enough to keep Varys from his grand plans -- since he didn't note that to be a problem in his situation with Littlefinger.

I don't know. On one hand I note that Littlefinger has clear motive and ability to do exactly what happened. And on the other hand, I note that he is _not_ perfect, that he doesn't know everything, and that his plan isn't exactly perfect (as KAH noted, Tyrion getting caught, and then Jaime.)

Seems to me that it's the sort of grand conspiracy that would fit in this kind of book. But that's me. GRRM has promised that one or two more details will appear in _ASoS_ and since he says he thinks the killer is obvious by now (sounds like he's channeling RJ and 'Who killed Asmodean?' ;), maybe those details will make it obvious to _us_. ;)

Jeff,

Actually, KAH very much improved on the theory (again ;). The agent is the guy who presented the escape plan to the stupid catspaw, obviously -- the guy sounds like he's following a certain plan, and sounded as if he'd been assured no one would
be around.

No need to tell him to drop the dagger, then -- just tell him to go back to the stables to retrieve his stash of loose (and thus very loud) coins and hide until things cool down. The catspaw, clearly being no genius, would have done as he was told -- and would have been caught.

KAH posted:

Claidhaim;

Put yourself in Littlefinger's shoes. You are going to convince Ned that you are his friend.

What are you going to say to him?

"Yeah, I had a duel with your brother over your wife, and he gave me this nice scar here. And yeah, I know you've been schtupping the woman I loved for the last fifteen years. But I'm going to help you out anyway against those powerful Lannisters, 'cause I'm such a good guy. Trust me!"


In fact, that's more or less what he _did_ say, and I don't think he could have gotten away with saying anything else.
I don't think Petyr has Varys' gift of mummery - feigning true friendship with Ned would have fallen _hard_ on it's face.

That's why he needs Cat - her statements are the only thing that makes Littlefinger's 'help' somewhat believable. As it is, it is a close thing; Ned fairly reeks of suspicion towards Petyr at times.
Ran
User ID: 0867924 		Apr 17th 1:51 PM
To move something here from the Jaime thread that I didn't manage a reply to as the thread broke, here's a repost of Ser Benjen's last post on the topic there:

Sorry to make you plead your case on two topics Ran.

How could he have known,

1. that Bran was Cat's favorite
2. that Bran fell
3. that Bran survived that fall
4. and had enough time to plan the attempt from KL?

Ran tried to reply:

He didn't. On the other hand, he never planned to kill Bran, did he?

I was speaking against Jeff's suggestion that Cat would probably have gone nuts and never budged from Winterfell if Rickon had been killed by a guy with a knife. The situation with Bran is worlds away from the theoretical situation with Rickon. Bran was just a target of opportunity -- the idea being the agent changed plans. Obviously, he must be someone trusted by Littlefinger to some degree, to take that much authority.
Ran
User ID: 0867924 		Apr 17th 1:52 PM
Claidhaim,

What would that have gotten Littlefinger? He wanted to be in on Ned's downfall, and not just by 'anonymously' leading him by the nose. How could he take credit for that, since it means revealing to Cersei that he's quite aware of the parentage of the children?

He wanted the reward, not the work. And he got it, since he was instrumental in handing Ned, his daughter, and his men to the Lannisters in a relatively mess-free little package by being the man Ned depended on.
Claidhaim
User ID: 8590713 		Apr 17th 1:53 PM
Yeah, Ran, it is sort of a 'whatever' situation here. I want to believe, but it's not coming so easily.

The problem I'm currently having with the theory is that Petyr needed Catelyn in King's Landing so that he could get on the good side of Ned.
Ran
User ID: 0867924 		Apr 17th 1:55 PM
I know. I just don't know what the problem is. Ned disliked Petyr instantly. :)
Claidhaim
User ID: 8590713 		Apr 17th 1:56 PM
Are you saying that Petyr planned on crossing Ned all along? I thought he only crossed him when Ned wouldn't take the throne for himself (thanking Petyr with whatever he wanted in the process).
KAH
User ID: 0541004 		Apr 17th 2:09 PM
Littlefinger was playing all horses.

I'm quite sure that when he offered Ned his help to take the Regency (as long as they denied Stannis the throne), he was sincere.

I'm also quite sure he was fending off Cersei for all he was worth, up until that point, when Ned refused him. When that happened, he would go to Cersei and ingratiate himself to her by dropping Ned into her lap.

Cersei proves more of a problem for Littlefinger than Ned would - Ned was much more easily lead than Cersei. But when Ned doesn't take his offer...well, Cersei is a viable alternative. For the moment. :o)
Ran
User ID: 0867924 		Apr 17th 2:15 PM
What KAH said.

I'm pretty certain that Littlefinger was keeping his hand in all the cookie jars, so to speak. I'm also still trying to reconstruct my epiphany where I made a fairly good try at linking Littlefinger to the Knight of Flowers and Renly, rather directly. Came to me as I was taking a walk with the fiancee. Should have rushed over to write it down.
Jeff
User ID: 1536664 		Apr 17th 3:00 PM
Well, I'm ready to concede on the GUCT, which is more or less where I was when I started anyway. I agree that its the most likely option, particularly given the developments in ACOK. I still think its not a very good plan because the marginal benefit is outweighed by the risks. What exactly did the GUCT accomplish? Catelyn seizing Tyrion was a random act that Littlefinger could not have predicted. If Littlefinger's goal was to start a conflict between Stark's and Lannisters, Claidhaim properly pointed out that he could have done this even without the assassination. A few hints, the book, a few trips to see Robert's offspring. And he could have dropped even greater hints had Ned still not picked up on it. The GUCT simply is not necessary for Littlefinger's plan to succeed.

The risks are large. If the assassin had been captured, I think it far more likely that Catelyn would have sent a messenger to get Ned because the assassin might have been able to identify the catspaw. That scenario might have ended up exposing Littlefinger. Littlefinger's lie to Catelyn could have spelled his doom as well if she had past it on to Ned and if Ned had appraoched Robert. Maybe not likely, but would Littlefinger bet his life on that? Even now, I think that lie is going to come back to haunt Littlefinger when/if Jaime and Tyrion compare notes and confront Littlefinger. So it seems a big risk for marginal benefit.

But all that being said, the GUCT seems better than the alternatives. Littlefinger's the most likely villain, plus, as Ran has pointed out, the GUCT is rather artful, insidious, and makes a much more interesting story.
Ran
User ID: 0867924 		Apr 17th 3:22 PM
Mrm. Well, what did it accomplish ... is a good question. I suppose looking at in the light of Tyrion captured/not captured would be interesting.

Never really thought of what would have happened had Tyrion never been caught. The only obvious thing, without needing to think of it, is that Ned would be _very_ trapped in Littlefinger's plans, and Littlefinger was perfectly set up to reap the rewards (which he did.)

I still don't buy hints here and there being enough -- I mean, Littlefinger doesn't _need_ to do anything for tension to at grow at some rate. Varys seems to have worked the situation, at least to some degree, in that direction. But Littlefinger wants to win the prize, not just sit by and watch and tries to grab little bits of reward from the sidelines.

He wanted to be instrumental, not a bystander who nudged things a little, because as the latter no one would owe him -- and in fact, he'd incur rather more risk, wouldn't he? Since revealing it to try to get his reward means that he's revealed that he always knew about Cersei and Jaime. I wouldn't bet a farthing on his lasting a day after that.

On the other hand, mrm. I just don't see Cat taking a risk like warning whoever by sending a message direct to Ned. The best course is still getting to KL ahead of him and waiting for him to arrive. Luwin would always be the cautious one who says, 'Yes, but this is no proof, and we must have them to confirm our suspicions.' The proof is in KL.

Hrm .. you know, thinking about it -- a week seems interesting timing. You can make it from Winterfell to White Harbor in about a week. I bet the agent quit the king's party and ran to White Harbor -- I doubt he's the only person who decided the king's journey was too slow or that the king wasn't interested in employing him. So there's another risk -- sending a message to where Ned is might just bring about trouble, with no agent to speak of handy.

I certainly agree that Jaime and Tyrion getting together to compare notes will be bad news for Littlefinger. The massive coincidence of Tyrion being at that inn and being taken by Catelyn is bad enough, but the smaller coincidence of Robb managing to actually capture Jaime ... well. I don't think anyone could possibly imagine that such a thing would happen. He's very, very smart and subtle, but he can't see everything that might happen.

The fact that Littlefinger survived Tyrion becoming Hand, instantly distrusting of him, says a lot for his audacity and wits. If he does go down because of this whole mess -- and my personal pleasure would be to see him iced by Others at Harrenhal, actually, but that's because it fits one of my long-range theories -- then he won't go down without a good fight, I think.

Finally, Ned going to Robert... well, looking at how Littlefinger manipulated Ned, I just don't see it. Ned's reputation as a conscientus, methodical man almost seems to preclude his making wild accusations with no proof. I think Littlefinger knows exactly how to play Ned, because Ned's actions and reputation are ... well. Not a little predictable. It's why Littlefinger was able to betray him so easily, after all.

In any case, we'll hopefully learn enough by _ASoS_ to settle this out. I'm not sure if this is the sort of puzzle I want to last two or three more books. ;)
KAH
User ID: 0541004 		Apr 17th 3:28 PM
Actually, I think it's fair to say that Littlefinger's plan fell on it's face - I think he wanted to attach himself to Ned, get his 'modest' reward, and then keep on hoodwinking Ned for more profit.

Instead, he had to go back to the contingency plan - dropping Ned into Cersei's lap.

Which got him only a few favor points at that point.

I suspect he might have fended off Cersei too long to try demand any rewards for it, especially as he had no other choice then. Stannis on the throne would have been the absolutely worst outcome.

But it worked out for Petyr in the long run; the Tyrell alliance gave him the reward he wanted - and another future pair of horses to ride - Lannisters vs Tyrells.

He only has to assure that the Starks are obliterated, and then he can sleep safely (relatively so, at least).
Whatever his plans, he would have to make sure that one of the sides lost decisively - or too many questions might be asked in time.

Of course, this process is going on right now, and may eventually make his Sic Transit...but the risk of that happening _wasn't_ all that big, really. He had quite a lot of misfortune.
Ran
User ID: 0867924 		Apr 17th 3:35 PM
Hrm, just a few favor points? I don't know about that. Certainly, Cersei didn't trust him anymore, but he suddenly became the go-to guy for the Tyrell-Lannister alliance. I'm not sure Cersei would have let him go so easily if he had just stood aside and took no part in the coup.

Then again, she's rather obtuse sometimes, so maybe she would have. Oh, though I do believe he got Joffrey's ear directly because of the bloody way he handled Ned and his men. ;) Which is one reason Ned's head took a roll.
KAH
User ID: 0541004 		Apr 17th 3:38 PM
Littlefinger seized on it when Cersei and Tyrion couldn't agree on who to send.

I suppose the favor points could have been decisive in that decision, but I'm not sure...they had to send _someone_.
Ran
User ID: 0867924 		Apr 17th 3:41 PM
Yeah, sure, but him? When I first read that scene, I half expected her to suggest Lancel, myself.
Padraig
User ID: 9697893 		Apr 17th 4:06 PM
Ran and KAH, you start on the assumption that Littlefinger wanted to kill a 3 year old and blame the Lannisters. I cannot convince myself that anyone would think this up. Maybe i'm plain dumb but it does not seem possible. Nobody would want to kill a 3 year old in the first place. There's no point saying well here is a 3 year old dead body. Because we don't even have a 3 year old body. Littlefinger would surely target someone reasonable. Of course Catelyn wanted to find out who tried to kill her children. But this was not Littlefinger's design. It just happened.

I don't think Littlefinger needed to manufacture something to get Ned to trust him. Littlefinger is way too clever to need something so desperate (yes I find GUCT brillant but desperate). By involving himself so openly he was just leaving himself open to becoming the target of one of the conspirators. I don't buy the logic that if you don't know what is going on instead of spending time trying to find out you rush things along. That seems a sure way of getting yourself killed.

Just because Littlefinger pretends to know everything doesn't mean he does.

I remember nothing about Catelyn thinking Bran was pushed before the assasination attempt. Littlefinger knows Catelyn is smart enough to go by sea yet stupid enough to belive what he says. And he needed Catelyn yet he thought it was possible that only Rodrik would come down. Rodrik's appearance would really have been worth the whole enterprise.

How could sending a message be more risky than coming to KL. Cersei could easily have found out about Catelyn�s secret trip.

Quite a bit of misfortune. Ha ha. The luckiest guy in the world. I'm too tired to even back that up;-)

We�re looking at things completely differently. He said what he said to Ned because he knew Ned needed him. Now if Bran hadn't been almost killed he would have tried a different tact. To get into the position he has he must be able to curb his tongue.

Hadn't Rodrick already met the weapons master when Catelyn met Littlefinger? Varys was with Littlefinger when they met Catelyn. I think it is safe to say they discussed what Catelyn wanted before she arrived.

I do wonder did Cersei organise the assasination herself or did she get one of her own paid agents to do it for her since Jaime refused. But I doubt she even worried whether Catelyn was there or not anyhow. She would believe he could deal with one woman. And she hardly wanted to discourage him by saying the fire wouldn't succeed in getting everyone out of the room. The only problem I have with Cersei as the likely killer is that is is almost too obvious.

GUCT, some things are just too complicated.

This mail for instance is a mess because it's too complicated.
Ran
User ID: 0867924 		Apr 17th 4:34 PM
Hrm ... well, no, the assumption is that Littlefinger wants Ned's confidence now, not later, so that he's in on things and able to manipulate events. He doesn't know when someone else -- Varys, Cersei, Ned, whoever -- will jump and leave him out in the cold.

Repeatedly people have said, 'Oh, Littlefinger could have won Ned's confidence anyhow' ... but they never come close to trying to specify what Littlefinger would do to become Ned's next-to-best friend in KL. What in the world could Littlefinger have done to win Ned's trust when it's obvious that Ned dislikes him from the very instant they meet? Except, of course, help out dear sweet Catelyn?

That he throws suspicion at the Lannisters serves many purposes -- increasing tension, making Ned need him more, simply throwing Ned off on the easiest course away from him, and so on.

And I _still_ do not see what in the world would keep someone from killing a three-year-old if that child somehow overheard said someone talking about some deep, dark, dirty secret. If I were Cersei, I wouldn't blink at killing Rickon as soon as is safe, for fear he might babble whatever innocently.

Again, there _has_ to be a reason why someone sends a hired killer after your child -- it's incumbent on you to go find it out, because otherwise you'll sit still and just shrug. No parent in the world would do that. Someone had to go to KL after that, simple enough.

Also, remember, Littlefinger is almost certainly the man behind delivering Lysa's message, perhaps even the man behind instigating it. Of _course_ the Starks will think of the Lannisters almost immediately if anything unfortunate happens. Why would they think anything else?

I also don't see how 'someone reasonable' would work. For example, killing Robb -- well, why would someone kill him? Just because he's heir? That's almost too dumb to believe -- Ned has two legitimate male heirs, a third male illegitimate son, and two daughters, plus a wife who is probably still fertile enough to give him a child or two more.

Because he heard something he shouldn't have? He's almost a man grown, with an inherited dislike for the Lannisters, and he would have told Ned in an instant. It's far, far harder to explain why Robb would be attacked.

Or Cat? Well, I suppose that would have the stupid aim of keeping Ned in Winterfell -- but hell, that one would be a tremendous failure. Robert seems to consider Cat almost a sister, and whoever was persecuted for the act would be hammered into the dirt with all the Seven Kingdoms against them. That certainly doesn't help the Lannisters by any stretch of the imagination, and it surely doesn't help Littlefinger.

And, of course, it's just plain harder to manage against a near-adult/adult than it is against a child, in any case. Killing a kid who is liable to have free run of the castle shouldn't be tough at all.

And if going straight to Ned was such a smart idea, why in the world _didn't_ Cat do it?

Because going to Ned solves _zero_, but it raises so much suspicion that who knows what would happen then. Going to KL might bring its own trouble, but then again I suppose Cat thought that once she identified the dagger, she'd be ready to meet the Lannisters at the gates with solid proof.

And ... hrm, then we come to another thing. 'Catelyn smart enough to come by sea but stupid enough to believe what he says.' Well, unsubtle enough to take it entirely without a second thought, but certainly not stupid. This was a boy who was almost a brother, raised with her for many years. Hell, he loved her so much he fought a duel for her hand.

I've never understood why Cat is supposed to be immediately suspicious of such an old, intimate acquaintance. The story he gives is pretty damned plausible, all considered.

I also don't see how Littlefinger was involved particularly openly. The closest he gets to any trouble is with Jaime, and labor and others have brought up the probability that Littlefinger was the one who arranged for Jaime to show up as he did. I don't think Littlefinger had anything close to a fear of being any sort of 'target.' He seems to be right.

And to go back up, I don't follow what you mean about not buying the idea of not knowing what's going on speeding up things compared to trying to find out. What does this refer to?

Oh, yeah, and Varys wasn't there when Cat met Littlefinger -- he showed up later. I don't think Littlefinger and Varys have chats about how they're going to manipulate people together. I also rather extremely doubtful that it was Varys who told Littlefinger of Catelyn. Littlefinger has all the men on the docks he needs to learn the matter himself.

I wouldn't be surprised if he contacted Varys to come down at that appointed hour, so that he could put the blame on Varys for digging up the information, and and thus hiding the fact that he himself had resources aimed at spying and that he was keeping an eye out for Cat. And Varys couldn't really speak against it, not really being aware of Littlefinger's game.
Rughead
User ID: 0415304 		Apr 17th 8:55 PM
I'm a big GUCT fan but I admit it is stretched thin at some points.

Regardeless, I'm convinced that Littlefinger is involved in the attempt on Bran's life. It seems clear to me!

Perhaps this is covered elsewhere, but why would Littlefinger lie about the knife, implicating the Lannisters, risking discovery, if it was not part of a plan? A suprised, clumsy cover-up? Perhaps, but I don't think so.

Jaime clears Cersei (If we beleive him, which for some gullible reason I do) and then corroborates Tyrion's account of the knife wager.

Jaime: "...if I had wanted your Bran dead I would have slain him myself."
Cat: "If you did not send the killer, your sister did."
Jaime: "If so, I'd know. Cersei keeps no secrets from me."

Minutes later Cat realizes for the first time that Jaime and Tyrion had not seen each other for over 1 year and that their stories matched - pointing the blame at her "Petyr who had been almost a brother, Petyr who loved her so much he fought a duel for her hand...."

Come on, GRRM is either tipping us off or leading us astray - but the implication is that Littlefinger somehow "reached" into Winterfell.
Moreta
User ID: 8938823 		Apr 18th 0:30 AM
A problem there, Rughead. Jaime claims that Cersei tells him everything. Yeah right. Like if he knows about Lancel. Cersei's stupid and desperate enough to send that assassin.

Ran, I'm still thinking about Littlefinger. He wouldn't have won Ned's trust, I'm sure of that, but there's just too many complications to satisfy me.
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