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A Song of Ice and Fire / A Clash of Kings II / The attempted assassination of Bran III

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KAH
User ID: 0541004 Apr 29th 10:05 AM
To add to Ran's reasons for Littlefinger to get involved in this...

If Littlefinger wants to get further up than he is now, he has to meddle, yes.

But not only that. Very likely he has to meddle _just to have the position of Master of the Coin_!

Littlefinger was aware of the incest, of the tensions between Robert and the Lannisters, and the tensions between Ned and the Lannisters, as well as Robert's intention to put him up as Hand.

It doesn't take a mastermind to figure out that the Lannisters feel imperiled, and that they want to do something to take over business. To do that, they have to remove Robert.

Where Littlefinger was invaluable for Robert's lust of spending, with the Lannisters in charge, the need of Littlefinger will be vastly reduced.
The Lannisters account for half the royal debt themselves, and have no doubt the economical backbone to take care of the rest of the debt on their own - and they do not share Robert's need to throw gold out of the window.

Add to that the fact that a position in the small council is a great political reward, as well as a place where you like to put people that you trust completely (i.e. family). Littlefinger might well find himself ousted in favor of Mace Tyrell, or some Martell, or Kevan Lannister, because Petyr at this point has no significant seat of power whatsoever.

Also, there's the chance that Petyr will be discovered in having done some hanky-panky with his position. We see that Tyrion is worried about what Littlefinger has been up to.

So Littlefinger has good reason to take a hand in the upcoming struggle.

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Apr 29th 10:39 AM
Responding to Jeff:

I think it's going too far to presume that the situation between Varys and Littlefinger is one where Varys would be able and willing to one-up Littlefinger. It's clear he didn't. Obviously, if GUCT is right, the presumption is that whatever the situation is, Varys just was not interested in going through the trouble of trying to one-up Ned.

But lets waive GUCT -- Varys could have jumped on Littlefinger the moment Littlefinger lied, or soon after. He didn't. We don't know what the situation is, but whatever case it is, Littlefinger predicted right -- maybe he has a really strong hold, maybe he just knows with certainty that Varys won't jump because he's got delicate plans of his own.

Until we learn more, I guess the best answer is, 'We don't know.' There's a possibility Littlefinger took a huge risk, but so far the points claiming he took a huge risk are hypotheticals that seem easily enough predicted if you're a person in Littlefinger's position. At least from where I'm sitting -- and I'm the guy who had the theory from after _AGoT_, pre-firm knowledge of Littlefinger's influence throughout the finances of government and his highly probable dalliance with Lysa.

In any case, what can end up looking at it two ways, depending on either theory -- that he made up the lie on the spot, or he's behind GUCT. If he made the lie up on the spot -- or is behind it and tells the lie, he takes a huge risk with Varys. Or he tells a huge lie on the spot -- or is behind it and tells the lie, and he knows that the situation is such that Varys will in no way, shape, or form move against him.

KAH
User ID: 0541004 Apr 29th 10:44 AM
Um, that's not entirely correct, Ran. Littlefinger _could_ have gotten exact information of what happened at Winterfell before Cat showed up.

If Littlefinger wasn't behind the assassination attempt, I think this is the best explanation by far.

Markus
User ID: 3919194 Apr 29th 10:45 AM
Some very good points in this thread. Let me restate something:

If Littlefinger plotted to kill Bran then he didn't do it because he wanted to cause strife between the Starks and Lannisters -- after all, this was already guaranteed to occur by luring Ned to KL and letting him discover the paternity of Cersei's children -- but mainly because he wanted to gain the trust and gratitude of Cat, and above all Ned, which he needed in order to preserve himself all options?

Well, if this should really be the case, I can only repeat that I think that the risks -- which were quite high, for various reasons -- were in no sensible correlation to the goal of just being on Ned's good side.

Surely, Littlefinger should have been able to achieve a similar effect without a plan -- and I'm not referring to Littlefinger's attempt to play Ned against the Lannisters and sell himself out to the highest bidder, but solely to the plot to gain Ned's trust by killing his son -- who _is_ better characterized by serendipity than intelligence, and which endangers his life.

On the other hand, the potential flaws and unnecessary risks of the plan Littlefinger is attributed with, might actually be a point in favor of Littlefinger as the actual plotter.

A greedy, ambitious and resentful man, and moreover a gambler like Littlefinger -- who has even a record of taking insane risks which border on stupidity, by challenging Brandon Stark -- might well rely more on his luck and quick wits than on a controllable and therefore less risky scheme.

On a related note, the more we discuss this topic, the less sense will Martin's solution probably make for at least half of us.;)

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Apr 29th 11:00 AM
Hrm. I don't think I make any comments concerning Cat and Winterfell in my post, KAH. :)

I was just talking about the fact that, either way you cut it re: Varys, Littlefinger is either taking a risk (showing he's willign to take risks) or he's certain that Varys won't react.

Oh, I suppose you mean the on-the-spot lie. Well, I don't buy he could get information from Winterfell before Cat arrived. She got there pretty quickly, and it's not as if anyone will send birds to KL with the news (I hope.) OF course, Varys might know by whatever means he knows, but whether he would have passed that immediately to Littlefinger .... I don't know. Why would he?

KAH
User ID: 0541004 Apr 29th 11:51 AM
Well, Varys apparently throws Littlefinger a bone now and then to placate him...and perhaps this time the bone was far more valuable than he realized.

Or perhaps Littlefinger specifically asked for information from Winterfell...although that's a bit of a reach, unless he was pondering designs on the upcoming situation already.

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Apr 29th 11:58 AM
I don't see Varys tossing bones, not quite that way. If Littlefinger knows nothing of the situation, has no hint of it, I don't see why Varys would toss it to him. He might say, 'Oh, Ned Stark has agreed to be Hand afterall,' but volunteering that much ... Hrm.

I mean, I guess this stuff is possible. It can't be ruled out. I just don't find it likely ways for Littlefinger to get information.

Markus
User ID: 3919194 Apr 29th 12:06 PM
Well, Varys himself claimed to Ned that he allows Littlefinger to believe he is Littlefinger's man by giving him valuable information.

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Apr 29th 12:11 PM
Yes, that's true, but information that valuable?

Don't know. Something smaller, like noting that Ned has indeed accepted, and that Bran had an accident, etc... sure. But it seems to be quite a big gift he gives to Littlefinger by noting the dagger, especially if he does it in some sort of advanced time.

Padraig
User ID: 1564944 Apr 29th 12:34 PM
Perhaps Roberts knife meant less to Cersei than her own jewellery. Trying to kill Bran was a risk whatever she gave the assassin as payment. I think the main thing she could rely on was that nobody would know her motive and without a motive people's claims could not be backed up against her. How could she be screwed? As long as Robert didn't actually give the knife to Cersei all we have is the mad claims of some grief stricken parents who are noted for their dislike of the Lannisters.

I can't understand why people would accept Robert giving the knife to the assassin but not Cersei. Her need was far greater. I stand by my claim that she would not accept Jaime's judgement. Cersei is probably used to Jaime's lack of initiative. But I don't believe she could accept that Bran could wake up and tell everyone about how he was thrown from the tower. And her worry had a good foundation. Bran did wake up and eventually he did remember. Who knows what would have happened if Ned was still Hand.

Her children's lives were at stake. Whenever she did listen to reassuring words I don't think she had the same things at stake (but I am unclear here on what those examples actually are).

See, once Catelyn and Ned arrived in KL Littlefinger could safely read them and act accordingly. But thinking up such a convuluted plot, which is based mainly on the views of other people and old memories, is too unbelievable. Calling him a genius would be an insult. But then I have to wonder, couldn't he have thought of something a bit better. The best plans are the simplest ones. When I look at GUCT I just don't see a plan that someone could think of. I've been wrong before though.

If you could even show me a place where he actually worried about his position as Master of the Coin that badly that he needed GUCT to hold on.

It's much easier for me to believe that Cersei made a mistake. But she isn't an idiot. It would take a lot more than that to bring her down.

KAH, I do believe that Littlefinger did send Lysa's message to the Starks. So I agree that he believed to retain his position and get even more power he needed to meddle. I just cannot believe he went to such lengths. IMO all he needed was a suspicious Ned in KL. Add some wood and watch things burn.

Alternatives. Littlefinger is behind the assassination attempt. He tells Catelyn a lie, hoping Varys will not dare move against him. Risky.

Littlefinger is not behind the attempt and knows nothing about it when Catelyn comes in. He makes up a lie on the spot but still hopes that Varys will not move against him. Even more risky. People do say he gambles though.

Or he talks to Varys before Catelyn arrives about the knife and Varys expects Littlefinger to lie. Little risk.

And why does Varys tell Littlefinger? Littlefinger finds out Catelyn is in KL from his many sources. He goes to Varys because he desperately wants to find out why. Perhaps Lysa's message has had surprising results. And in the delicately poised battle they fight Varys is willing to feed Littlefinger this piece of information as Markus and KAH point out.

One thing that impresses me and that is Ran thinking up this plan before aCoK. I thought things were pretty straightforward after aGoT. I couldn't say the same after aCoK. For GUCT is a very impressive idea. But sorry, I think it is no more than that. We'll see.

Markus
User ID: 3919194 Apr 29th 12:50 PM
Advanced time?

As Varys told Littlefinger that Catelyn had come to King's Landing, Littlefinger might well have asked him why, or? And Varys knew about the dagger, as we know.

And if we assume that Littlefinger has stuff on Varys, or just that Varys wants to stay on Littlefinger's good side, there is little reason to doubt that he would have told Littlefinger of the dagger.

On another note, whatever one may think about Cersei giving away the dagger to an assassin, if Cersei isn't our culprit, then we have to assume that Cersei was gambling her life and the life of her children on Bran's eventual death or faulty memory ... after Tyrion told her that the maester had hopes for Bran.

I'm not certain if Cersei would have been willing to risk this.

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Apr 29th 12:55 PM
No, no, you're making an assumption with absolutely zero merit -- that is, that telling a lie with Varys present is a risk, whether he's making it on the spot or whether he's behind the whole thing. We do not know anything about the situation between him and Varys, save that it seems that Varys did nothing to stop him from telling his lie, either way.

It is _possibly_ risky. Not probably, but possibly. Obviously, GUCT flows more smoothly if it was extremely minimal risk because the balance between Littlefinger and Varys is such that Littlefinger could trust 99.999% that Varys would not do antyhing against him. It's an entirely reasonable assumption, given the progression of events -- Varys never moves against Littlefinger, even though he's complaining of things moving too quickly, which is directly caused by Littlefinger's lie.

And he gives Littlefinger free run of things even after that, rather than trying to stop him. Clearly, there's some balance that they don't dare tip.

I also don't buy that Varys and Littlefinger "talked" about the situation after Catelyn arrived.

The fact is that, if Varys expected Littlefinger to lie, why was he clueless as to the fact of what Littlefinger was up to? He still seems frustrated with it, months after the fact. I admit, perhaps he's referring to more than just the knife -- but I believe he clearly blames Littlefinger's "meddling" on the big mess. Why risk giving Littlefinger that much information?

It's one thing if Littlefinger makes up the lie on the spot -- but everyone speaks of the riskiness of that, not just with Varys but with Cat and Ned. Coming into it with too little information, he may make a mis-step by pointing the finger at Tyrion.

Just because Varys knew Littlefinger was going to lie about the knife -- which, actually, is kind of a natural thing to assume as Littlefinger seems to lie as naturally as he breathes -- does not mean that there's suddenly little risk, unless the idea is that Littlefinger and Varys actually _planned_ the lie together?

I find that ... hrm. Unlikely. Or am I missing something?

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Apr 29th 1:04 PM
That was in reply to Padraig, BTW. ;)

Markus,

This presumes that Varys told Littlefinger, which seems improbable if Littlefinger is the man who owns 9 out of every 10 harbormaster, duty inspector, and tax collector. It seems improbable that he has no one running information to him.

Of course, it's speculation. But it seems natural to assume that the docks are a place where Littlefinger harvests quite a lot of information. So, it seems up in the air to me. Also, in any case, Varys could always answer, 'I don't know' as far as what the purpose is. Why not? He's not infalliable, and admits so more than once.

I also think Varys has something on Littlefinger, just has Littlefinger has something on Varys. Varys would easily have information showing massive embezzelement by Littlefinger, for example. So, telling Littlefinger purely out of blackmail seems ... unlikely. They each have some leverage, but I don't think they dare tip it too far.

Markus
User ID: 3919194 Apr 29th 1:25 PM
Ran,

Varys is the spymaster, not Littlefinger.:)
This makes it more likely that Varys noticed her, harbormasters here or there.

And I don't see why Littlefinger and Varys should _lie_ about who told whom about Catelyn ... and they claim Varys' spies noticed her and Rodrik's interest in the dagger.

And I wasn't speaking of _direct_ blackmail. But where is the harm for Varys when he tells Littlefinger of the dagger, instead of pleading ignorance? Varys wants to be considered as useful, don't forget this.

I don't say Varys told Littlefinger of the dagger beforehand, personally I think if Littlefinger isn't the culprit, then his initial ignorance about the dagger was genuine, just as Catelyn thought.

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Apr 29th 1:29 PM
I think they very probably both noticed her.

As for why Littlefinger lies about Varys telling him? So that he doesn't reveal that he has his own spies, because that's a dishonorable thing that would put Catelyn off, naturally. She's already thinking that Moreo sold the information to Littlefinger -- but place it at the feet of the infamous Spider, and Catelyn will no doubt feel some shame at having thought so poorly of her dear foster brother Petyr, and trust him even more implicitly.

And the harm probably would have to do with the fact that I doubt Varys gives Littlefinger information until he turns it over and knows exactly what's going on. I suppose one might argue that Varys knows exactly what happened, and he thought it unimportant enough(!) that he could throw that bone to Littlefinger. Just another thing I don't buy.

Markus
User ID: 3919194 Apr 29th 2:05 PM
The text only reveals that Varys noticed Catelyn, and informed Littlefinger, which is only logical since Varys is the spymaster in King's Landing, not Littlefinger. Anything more is more or less reasonable conjecture.

I don't say it's unrealistic what you propose, it's just not more or equally likely as what we are straightout told in the novels.

And I think you exaggerate Littlefinger's need to blame Varys for being well informed, or Varys' reluctance to answer a simple, seemingly harmless question. Not that your reasoning isn't possible, mind.

It's just not really necessary to complicate everything with doublemeanings, or to suspect lies and deceptions everywhere to make some things still work.

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Apr 29th 2:11 PM
Varys being the spymaster does not mean that Littlefinger does not have spies. We're told that Littlefinger has spies -- not only is that guy who delivered the box certainly one of them, but Tyrion more or less implies it with the number of men of "his" that Littlefinger has moved into important bureaucratic positions. Ergo, he uses them (for what's the point of spies if you don't use them?), and if he uses them then he has reason to hide the fact from Catelyn.

After all, Catelyn storms in unhappily. He deflects her by laying it at Varys's feet. Simple, easy, logical -- and it works, obviously. Yes, speculation -- but I've yet to see a reasonable, straightforward theory that has zero speculation. ;)

I suppose one can just say that one might see. I do not think Occam's Razor will solve this particular puzzle, because the simplest solutions are the ones that seem to demand the poorest writing -- and I'd hate to feel that GRRM missed a beat on something so nifty as this mess. But that's my personal feeling.

Padraig
User ID: 1564944 Apr 29th 2:32 PM
Ran,
However well he knows Varys he could not guarantee that Varys would say nothing. Except if he had talked to Varys about the issue before hand. And once you consider this, then you are not far from my position.

Its all part of the Game of Thrones. Varys decides that Catelyn coming to KL with a dagger was worth telling Littlefinger. Littlefinger was probably very insistent on the matter. So yes, the very thing you don't buy I do. Varys probably expected Catelyn to tell Littlefinger anyway. So he thought it would cost him nothing to give away this information. But he made a mistake this time. Littlefinger's devious mind put a few things together and decided to blame Tyrion. By that time it was too late for Varys to take back what he had told Littlefinger.

I'm far closer to Markus's position it seems.

I think GRRM has put too much effort into this whole scenario for it not to have a satisfying conclusion. Except if we convince ourselves its our way or no way.

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Apr 29th 3:08 PM
If the situation is at it seems -- a balance where they each have something on the other, and they each have plans -- then I don't see Varys saying a word. Simple as that, really. Because if he ends up sending Littlefinger to the headsman, I'm certain Varys will be next -- and what then for all of his plans?

As to the satisfying conclusion, well, I have left the caveat. But the current attempts to explain Cersei and Robert fail that. But, hey, he's the author -- GRRM is extremely capable of making a very satisfying conclusion. :)

Padraig
User ID: 0867924 Apr 29th 3:10 PM
Okay, he blames Varys for telling him about Catelyn. But did he need Varys there while he lied to Catelyn? IMO without them talking about it before, Littlefinger just springing this lie shows a huge confidence. If I was Varys I would be very worried that Littlefinger would so casually lie in front of him and interfere with his own plots. Varys seemed very calm when he was with
Littlefinger and Catelyn.

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