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A Song of Ice and Fire / A Clash of Kings II / Tywin's rep

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Richard
User ID: 2212414 Feb 13th 4:08 AM
Tywin Lannister has a reputation for being very canny, like Tyrion, but I'm not sure how much that reputation is deserved. When Tyrion tells Cersei that Tywin's occupation of Harrenhal leaves Tywin perfectly situated to immobilize Robb and to fall on Renly's or Stannis' rear if one or both of them were to besiege King's Landing, and that Tyrion knows this not because Tywin told him, but because he just looked at a map, I think Tyrion is just projecting his own plans and strategies onto Tywin. After all, far from remaining at Harrenhal until King's Landing is besieged, Tywin tries to fight his way across the Red Fork. I know that many people think this was a feint, but I disagree. After all, first Tywin attacks at several points along the river, and then, having been blocked, concentrates his forces for an attack in one location. This causes the battle to go on longer, more than a day, and causes him to take many casualties. Also, he loses Harrenhal, the critical central location that Tyrion had identified, as a result. Blocked by the Tullys to his front and Bolton to his rear, he is then forced to drift south, where he runs into the Tyrell army, which Tyrion had already sent Littlefinger to win over, in order to threaten Stannis' rear. I suspect Tywin just went along with Tyrion's plan. Also, Tywin has a tendency to underestimate both his opponents and sometimes his own forces as well: he underestimated Robb in assuming that he would be easy to defeat; he underestimated Tyrion and Tyrion's clansmen in the battle against Bolton on the Green Fork, and then having defeated Bolton solely through numerical superiority, he fails to pursue, but leaves Harrenhal assuming that Bolton will not be a threat for some time. He also clearly does not judge his own children very well: he relies on Jaime, who is definitely not the brightest bulb in the socket, and assumes that Joffrey's bad counsel is coming from anyone but Cersei. Also, that Tywin responds ambiguously to Gregor's monumentally stupid comment about putting out scouts' eyes is evidence for my point: if you threaten to blind any scout who doesn't detect any signs of the enemy, any scouts you send won't come back. It might be that Tywin doesn't want to risk calling Gregor an idiot, but by responding ambiguously, he risks encouraging his other lords in such an idiotic policy. Also, his staying neutral during the rebellion against the Targaryen's violates one of the few rules of Machiavelli that Machiavelli claims can be observed without any exception whatever: never be neutral in any nearby war. You just anger whomever wins, and must then face the winner without allies. Although Tywin manages to largely redeem this mistake by joining Robert's side at the end, in many ways the current war flows out of Tywin's mistake then. I could go on, but I'd like to save some ammo to rebut my detractors. :) I'm not saying that Tywin's an utter fool, but I do think he his not as clever as his reputation.

Mike
User ID: 8394983 Feb 13th 4:36 AM
Good points, Richard. I never really bought the whole feint theory either.

Another point: Does Tywin really understand the situation that he is in as of now? Jaime's army and Stafford's army were annihilated and sent to flight, and he has taken noticeable losses to his own army. The battle on the Green Fork, the sustained march that left many behind, the garrison left at Harrenhal, and the battle w/ Edmure surely has left him w/ significantly less than his original number (around 30,000?). And unless I am mistaken, Mace Tyrell has him about 2:1 and are already inside the city. I know the alliance was his best option (seeing as how Robb IMHO would surely have beaten him otherwise) but he has to know what kind of situation he is in, and he cannot be happy about it.

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Feb 13th 5:30 AM
Martin has more or less confirmed that Tyrion's expectation of his father's plan was correct (So Spake Martin Mail #38 can be found at:

www.westeros.org/Heraldry/SoSpakeMartin-SSC.html
#Mail #38 ... Recombine).

Tywin was hoping to lure Robb out by his strong position at Harrenhal, or have Stannis commit to an attack, but it took too long. In the end, he was forced to take action and prepare the disasterous assault on the Red Fork.

Now, as to his reputation, I think he's deserved it. His plan of attack against Bolton was impeccable, and his stay in Harrenhal certainly fit the heights of accepted wisdom. Problem is, Robb Stark was easily underestimated. He's an unexperienced boy and Tywin had no expectation of him being so daring as to split his forces or to raid into the west.

I think the march that slammed into Stannis' forces also shows indications of Tywin's planning. It was, again, impeccably coordinated.

As to Bolton, he had some 10,000 men -- and it's not easy to attack a bunch of guys holding a ford with only 20-some thousand men, especially when you have to be ready to move out on the instant should you learn that your true foes (Stannis or Robb) are moving against you.

Finally, Tywin's holding out in the war -- you forget another consequence: unlike the Reach, and the Riverlands, and the Vale, and the Stormlands, and the North, and the area around King's Landing, and even Dorne .... the Westerlands used up no real resources and lost no men.

The Lannisters might well have been, at least temporarily, the strongest single House in Westeros at the end of the war. Unblooded, but still quite large (though clearly not so large as to be bigger than the combined troops of the North, the Vale, and the Stormlands). Given that, and the aplomb with which he got Robert's trust and got his daughter married to him, I think he played it perfectly well.

One of the rules of war is that sometimes you break the rules. Maybe by Machiavelli's standards he did, and it worked. Joining Robert and co. would have required more resources and would have severely lowered his worth -- he moves from being the mastermind behind the Sack and the final fall of the Targaryens to just another lord commander joining the good fight.

As to, Tywin's original number of troops was probably about 20,000-25,000, last I recall. I know I had a more precise figure somewhere Given losses on the Green Fork, the march west, and the Red Fork (when we know he had about 20,000 men left, anyhow)... I'd put his force at some 16,000-18,000 at the time of the Blackwater. Not much smaller after the battle, either, given the surprise involved.

Anon
User ID: 2205324 Feb 13th 6:23 AM
I've always believed that Tywin held off from Rhaegar because of a feud that led to his dismissal as Hand. Also it isn't inconceivable that he failed to support Robert in case an oportunity emerged whereby he could seize the crown himself (except that Ned moved too fast, and never exhausted himself fighting the Tyrells before descending on King's Landing).

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Feb 13th 7:20 AM
Precisely. I think it's more than clearly implied that the 'wait and see' was, in part, caused by Tywin's willingness to try for the throne if the opportunity came at hand.

This would sort of fit divide-and-conquer -- let rebels wear down the Targaryens and the royalists, and be worn down themselves, while keeping fresh.

Then, if things became opportune -- for instance, if Rhaegar had not been killed and the battle at the ruby ford had extended for very much longer with far more casulaties on each side -- he might well have been able to take King's Landing and the throne, and make it stick.

Richard
User ID: 2212414 Feb 13th 1:39 PM
Ran, the problem with saying that it took too long to lure Robb out or wait for Renly or Stannis to reach King's Landing is that the only source of time pressure was Robb's attack on the Westlands. The area around Harrenhal was lush enough, apparently, to support Tywin's army, if not indefinitely, than at least for a very long time. He could have written off the Westlands, at least temporarily, as events have now forced him to do, and as Robb will probably have to do with the North, and instead concentrated on maintaining good strategic position. The fact that he was more concerned about regaining the West than protecting King's Landing says to me that he is more concerned about maintaining his power than increasing it by becoming king. I think that this was the source of his delay in joining the rebellion. He was simply more concerned about ending up on the losing side, so he waited to see who would win before committing, and sacked the city and killed the royal family in order to show his loyalty to Robert.
Also, on the issue of Tywin's skills as a military tactician, I think the Tyrell's, having already been persuaded by Littlefinger, came up with the plan to attack Stannis' rear more or less on their own, or perhaps at Tyrion's suggestion, transmitted through Littlefinger. Moreover, on the issue of the battle of the Green Fork, Tywin was on the tactical defensive; Bolton was attacking, although admittedly, only to distract Tywin from Robb's real offensive against Jaime. As to Tywin's actual battle plan, the idea of having Tyrion's flank collapse to lure in Bolton's forces so that Tywin's right flank might then trap them against the river might superficially seem brilliant, and indeed very similar to Napoleon's plan at Austerlitz, or like a one-half version of Hannibal's plan at Cannae, there were serious errors in Tywin's execution, that led directly to the plan's failure. First, Tywin placed what were obviously his best troops on his right, and what looked like his worst on his left; there was a real danger that Bolton, seeing this, would not have pressed any advantage against Tyrion. Second, there is again the point that Tywin seriously underestimated both Tyrion and the clansmen. Lastly, as a result of this underestimation, Tywin just expects Tyrion's forces to just collapse. This is a serious miscalculation, because then Bolton's army can escape the trap simply by pursuing Tyrion. When Napoleon used a similar strategy at Austerlitz, it was critical to the plan that his right flank fall back, but under no circumstances collapse. Similarly, Hannibal's success with a double envelopment at Cannae depended on his center's falling back, but not breaking. When Hannibal had used a similar strategy earlier at the battle of the Trebia, much of the Roman army escaped intact because they managed to break through the center. If Bolton had really broken through on Tywin's left, the trap would have failed, because too many of Bolton's troops could have simply marched through the hole, pursuing Tyrion, as it were.

I, Claudius
User ID: 0505634 Feb 13th 2:02 PM
Richard, IIRC Tywin had a powerfull reserve under his direct command ready to fill the gap that the routed left would leave. Tyrion saw him charging, armored in his golden plate, with the reserve cavalry, when he passed by his side. The plan was not so bad, only that Tywin presumed that Robb would be in command with his whole army. With that the northerners would have crushed the left easily, only to fall in his trap.

Bolton had fewer men and, IMHO, launched his attack in a cautious way, he doesn't seem to have reinforced his right to turn the Lannister left flank. Had he done so, Tyrion and his men would have been in a very difficult situation. And Bolton would have ended with his army destroyed.

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Feb 13th 2:45 PM
Well, he _did_ spend time maintaing good strategic position -- that's why he stayed in Harrenhal for so long. When Robb went into the west, he didn't react immediately because ... well, essentially, he was willing to write it off. I think he only decided to move a few days after word arrived that Stafford Lannister had been killed and his army was shattered.

Then, the west really was left open to be ravaged. The pace of things ... well. If he could force a crossing on the Red Fork and come to grips with Robb -- Robb of the undermanned force of not much more than 5,000 horse -- then not only would he have done serious harm to the Tullys, but he would have re-asserted control of the pass under the Golden Tooth _and_ potentially cut Robb off, forcing a battle which would almost certainly be Robb's last gasp.

With that, it's not improbable for him to expect to have the time (even just barely) to take out Robb and then race back to deal with the very cautious Stannis.

Now, as to the Green Fork: defensive or offensive, does it matter? His plan of battle was technically perfect, with his troops well gathered and in fine order. It _could_ have backfired, but it didn't, so I think that's a plus for him. That he expected green boy Robb to be leading ... well.

We don't know how Robb would have reacted if he had been there when the left wing broke. We know he's got a strong tactical ability and a willingness to gamble ... but how is he in the thick of things? Would he have tried to take advantage of the collapsed wing, rather than (as Roose) being too cautious to let the men push at certain weaknesses?

Might well have. It was a gamble. It didn't hurt.

As to underestimating Tyrion's men -- who wouldn't? They aren't trained to fight in formation. They're not even trained in any sort of formalized manner. They probably make great raiders and guerrila fighters (and we see this when Tyrion sends them into the King's Wood), but anyone could see that as a cohesive military force they aren't exactly suited for set-piece, open-field battles.

It was a natural underestimation, which anyone would do seeing these barbaric, ragged, fractous men (and woman.) Indeed, better to underestimate them than to overestimate them. If he overestimated them, his plan might have changed to take advantage of whatever percieve assets they brought, which -- if not disasterous -- would have been troublesome.

Of course, remember also that Tyrion's men were a very small portion of the left wing (although they were the leftmost). The fact is that their disordered, slovenly appearance would certainly attract attention from the northerner commanders, and they'd almost certainly bear a heavy assault.

But it wasn't just them that was supposed to collapse -- they only numbered three hundred, out of a few thousands in the wing. They were supposed to go first, but the group next of them could have fell just as easily. As Tywin says, he put the least disciplined men on the left -- it wouldn't have been only Tyrion fleeing, if a collapse had happened.

Now, as to Cannae, entirely right. However, Cannae was a _very_ different battle. Why? Because of the reserve. Hannibal had a strong center and purposefully worked it to withdraw so that the heedless Romans bent the lines and let the Numidian and (IIRC) Iberian cavalry move around into their rear. But he had no reserve to speak of .

On the other hand, Tywin's reserve would obviously come into play when Roose's men tried to push through the gap in pursuit. They would be slammed by 2,500 heavy horse and 2,500 picked foot, stopping them dead in their tracks .. only to find that the retreat is impossible because the left center has wheeled around to flank them and drive in.

It would have been a disaster. The right wing alone was more than adequate to screen while this was going on, and some portion of the center, while this great big portion of Roose's right was completely collapsed.

Given the lack of horse, and Tywin's great profusion of it (over 10,000), no one would have escaped the disaster in time for Tywin to cut off all pursuit because of the news that Robb had gone to Riverrun to lift the siege.

As to Trebia, the problem there was that Hannibal's center was relatively weak -- but Kevan seems to have had something like 7,000 men in his center (4,000 in the right wing, 5,000 in the reserve, 300 horse in the center plus innumerbale pike and other infantry, and archers, probably 4,000 in the left), certainly far more than Roose had in his own center. Indeed, Roose only had, as I recall, about 16,000 men. Tywin had practically half the entire northerner force contained in _just_ the center.

That'd certainly far outmatch what Roose had, since he couldn't skimp on the wings be using horse -- he didn't have any to speak of, really.

Anon
User ID: 2205324 Feb 13th 4:25 PM
How the hell can you compare pre-Marian warfare to that of chivalric Europe? Isn't that taking things a bit (a lot) too far?

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Feb 13th 4:42 PM
Hrm. Cavalry and foot were a part of both of them. Rough parallels can always be drawn, just as military historians (not to mention military men) are known to compare modern-era campaigns and battles to historical ones -- even when, seemingly , there's a far greater gap.

I think it's reasonable to try to draw some connections between historical situations and real those in the books, though I do think both Trebia and Cannae are poor examples in comparison to the Green Fork. Very different occassions, with the breaking of the center at Trebia being caused by weak numbers rather than any plan, and the victory at Cannae involving a totally different plan of battle.

Richard
User ID: 2212414 Feb 14th 0:06 AM
Actually, according to both the Carthaginian tradition and Roman military histories, according to historian of the Punic wars Brian Caven, Hannibal used the same plan at Trebia as at Cannae, and indeed, the reason for the all-out Roman attack in the center at Cannae was due to their belief that, had the breakthrough in the center at Trebia been better supported, it would have completely routed Hannibal. As to the idea that Tywin could have easily counterattacked with his reserve against any breakthrough on his left implies that Tywin's own flanking attack on his right would have to be unsupported. Now, while Tywin might have been counting on having sufficient numerical superiority to enable his right to break through without support from the reserve, it should be noted that his right would be on the tactical offensive, which requires significant numerical superiority to have any chance of success. Also, since it was obvious to Tyrion just by looking that Tywin's best troops were on the right, it might very well have been obvious to the Northerners as well, in which case they might be expected to take some precautions. Consider also, that if the Northerners had begun to break through on Tywin's left, but had then been counterattacked from the reserve, the counterattack, if successful would have forced them out of the trap. Many critics of the younger von Moltke have said that his reinforcement of the German left wing as part of his modifications to the Schlieffen plan, causing the French Plan 17 offensive to be repulsed, forced the French out of the envelopment by the German right wing that Schlieffen had planned. To be fair, Ran, one cannot have it both ways; either Tywin was planning to counterattack on his left to prevent a breakthrough, or he was planning to envelop the Northern left. If, as your textual reference seems to indicate, he was planning to do both, then he is guilty of the same error as von Moltke. I do agree, however, with your response to Anon. :) Anon, there potentially are arguments that Ancient, Medieval, and Modern tactics are not comparable, but you have to make those arguments; the burden of proof is on you.

Ran, in response to your argument that Robb would have been in serious trouble if Tywin had broken through on the Red Fork, consider what the consequences would have been for Tywin. If, having broken through, he failed to pursue the Tullys, but instead headed directly for the Golden Tooth, it is likely that the Tullys would have been able to preserve an army in being, threatening Tywin's rear, especially if reinforced by Bolton from Harrenhal. After all, it would have been exceedingly unlikely for Tywin to have broken through in more than one location along the river, meaning that the parts of Edmure's army at other spots would have been completely intact. Furthermore, if he had gone past the Golden Tooth into the Westlands, he would have had great difficulty in forcing Robb's entirely mounted, and hence highly mobile force to give battle, unless of course Tywin himself divided his army and pursued Robb solely with cavalry, largely eliminating Tywin's numerical advantage. Even then, Robb's superior recon units would have given Robb the option to decline battle. Also, Robb could potentially have destroyed Tywin's infantry, as Medieval infantry unsupported by any heavy cavalry of its own was usually very vulnerable to enemy cavalry. If, on the other hand, Tywin had remained in the Riverlands to finish off the Tullys, he would have had to divide his army into many pieces to pursue the various fragments of Edmure's army, and to besiege Riverrun itself. This would have made him very vulnerable to Robb. Lastly, had he taken his cavalry after Robb while leaving his infantry to subdue the Riverlands, then Robb would either have to have defeated or evaded Tywin's cavalry force, which he could ahve done given his superior scouting ability, and then bypassed the Golden Tooth again to descend upon Tywin's divided infantry forces and relieve the Tullys a second time. It is of course a moot point, because Tywin failed to defeat Edmure, which is not too surprising, considering that Tywin had only a 2 to 1 numerical advantage, whereas most military analysts claim that a 3 to 1 advantage is typically needed to successfully attack, all other things being equal. Throw in the excellent terrain advantage that Edmure had, and Tywin's defeat is easy to explain. Robb's threat to the West caused Tywin to miscalculate and launch an ill-advised attack. It should be noted that Robb had told Catelyn that he was planning to use Edmure to hold the Riverlands when Robb attacked the Westlands. Tywin made a mistake, and was saved only by Tyrion's planning.

Sorry for yet another ridiculously long post. Thanks to everyone who's been reading them. :)

Dirjj
User ID: 1954724 Feb 14th 0:39 AM
Before Ran jumps in, I'll say this. How superior can Robb's recon units be, when Tywins troops are fighting on their home turf? Land familiar, for the most part, to each and every one of them.

ab

I, Claudius
User ID: 0505634 Feb 14th 3:41 AM
Tywin didn't fail to defeat Edmure, IMHO he never expected to do so. The Lannister assault of the fords was a feint, the units commited were under the command of Marbrand and "The Mountain": outriders and skirmishers, and we have to remember that Gregor Clegane is the usual man to be in front the forces that can be sacrified. The whole thing was a feint to screen the movement of the main Lannister army for Kings Landing.

Tywin reserve against Bolton could be used either to reinforce the left or the right. If the northerners had really wanted to turn the Lannister left they would have needed to concentrate there, weaking their own centre or left. Tywin was free to use his reserve acording to the situation.

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Feb 14th 6:22 AM
Trebbia took place two years prior to Cannae. It was not until Hannibal had perfected his 'bend, but not break' strategy. Indeed, the deployment of the infantry was not only very thin in the center (there was a huge mismatch of forces), but unlike Cannae, there was no convex wedge of troops who were trained to slowly give ground. It seems to have been standard deployment.

Another difference is the fact that, even the legios broke through the center, the rout took place because Hannibal _did_ have a reserve -- Mago, with 2,000 horse, had been hidden away. When he suddenly appeared on the rear, it began a general rout, leading to some 20,000+ legionnaries being drowned as they tried to cross a river in flight.

There was no opportunity for the legions to be better supported, unless you mean 'if the Roman had more cavalry.' But that's a game for other people to mess with. Hannibal knew that he had cavalry superiority,and used it to his advantage -- just, as we see, Tywin calculated his use of cavalry.

I made no implication that the push on the right would be unsupported. As I pointed out, Kevan held a tremendously vast center, with a great deal of archery. Tywin only describes the pike (not the archers or numerous men-at-arms) as being involved in flanking anyone trying to exploit the gap, should the issue come to that. This still leaves a great portion of the center -- 2/3rds, certainly still larger than any center that Roose had -- to both maintain that point and to provide any support to the horse.

And, in any case, re-read the description -- Roose only has about seven hundred horse. Tywin had _4,000_ of them on his right wing, and most of them knights. Plenty to deal with the right wing, given that the undisciplined, poorly trained-and-equipped left wing managed so well against the Karstark pike on Bolton's right.

I quite disagree about the counterattack on the left serving to _push_ them out of the trap. It'd push them into the waiting Lannister pike, and trap them in a neat box -- they'd have to be able to walk on water to get away. While battles and skirmishes do move about, I'm doubtful of it moving so much that the pike will not be able to come into play.

Now, as for Tyrion realizing ... well, he knows his father. Robb really doesn't. Tywin's plan counted for a larger Northerner force (meaning they'd be less cautious) and a youth as commander. I think, given all, his plan would have worked precisely as he expected -- save Roose was in command of a force some 5,000 horse smaller than Tywin probably expected. It was a failure of Tywin's outriders that they were unable to get him that information. Indeed, if he had had it, he would have abandoned his position immediately to try to re-inforce Riverrun.

Now, as to Robb -- the threat of a Tully force, already bloodied after having the crossings taken, mounting any real threat is negligible. With the Lannisters holding the Tooth, and no clear indication that that 'goat path' is necessarily still a secret, I can't see the riverlords being able to moutn a threat as Tywin hunts down Robb.

I agree with your assessment of the other situations, but the first one seems far easiest and far less problematic. After all, only some 11,000 men were gathered by Edmure. After a defeat at the Red Fork, how many would survive such fierce fighting, especially if Tywin took the time to pursue the routed forces all the way to Riverrun? Nothing too dangerous, at least not under Edmure's foolhardy, simplistic command.

Dirjj,

Robb has the Blackfish with him, and he's _good_. But superior to, say, Addam Marbrand? Well, somewhat. But not enough to counteract westerman knowledge of their home.

Richard
User ID: 2212414 Feb 14th 12:14 PM
Claudius, I don't want to sound like a broken record, but I don't think there is much evidence that Tywin's attack was a feint. Yes, he used Clegane and Marbrand, but he used his entire army as well. First, he attacked at multiple points all along the river, and then, several hours later, after having reconcentrated his army, he launched another attack, this one apparently all-out, to try to force a crossing. He committed too many men and too much time for this to be a believable feint. Also, what was the point of this feint? To prevent any pursuit as he headed toward King's Landing? Why not just leave a screening force while he headed south? He would have had a pretty decent head start, and anyway, under which circumstances are Tully and Bolton more likely to really chase Tywin: having just won victories on the Red Fork and at Harrenhal, or while still recovering from their earlier defeats?
I just don't see much textual evidence for the attack's having been a feint.

Ran, as to what would have happened if the trap had worked or if the attack on the Red Fork had succeeded, who knows? I was merely suggesting reasons to think that Tywin had not fully planned ahead as well as one might expect in those cases. As I said, the point is moot, because neither situation came up. Your point about the trap that failed against Bolton possibly succeeding against the kind of commander Tywin believed Robb to be kind of supports my point about Tywin's tendency to underestimate his opponents. Robb was inexperienced, yes, but he very quickly proved himself an able commander to say the least. Tyrion, in recollecting his father's comment about Robb's inexperience and likely blunders, recognizes that Tywin underestimated him.

Also, I don't think that Edmure's command has been "foolhardy," or "simplicistic." He lost his first battle, it's true, largely because he failed to forward-deploy enough of his forces to block Jaime's offensive from the Golden Tooth, but that doesn't mean he will be a completely incompetent commander for the rest of his life. He performed quite ably in his second battle, in which he not only blocked Tywin's advance, but recaptured Harrenhal, cutting Tywin off from the shortest route to King's Landing. In fact, Tywin was probably saved from final disaster after that battle only by Tyrion's alliance with the Tyrells.

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Feb 14th 12:34 PM
Tywin underestimated Robb once. I don't think he'd do that again. Certainly, no doubt it was a surprise to learn Robb got into the west -- but that's probably because, for some thousands of years, no one knew of any other way to bring an army through from the riverlands save through the pass that the Golden Tooth controlled.

Edmure did not recapture Harrenhal. Roose Bolton did, and that's because the Bloody Mummers turned sides while Harrenhal had only a garrison of a hundred men.

Edmure is the one who spread small groups of troops throughout the riverlands, trying to defend everyone to disasterous effect. Edmure is the one who, later, let all the riverlords split up (convincing Robb to do allow it), trying to defend their patches of burnt-out lands, to terrible effect. Edmure is also the one who packed Riverrun full of useless mouths because they're 'his' people.

Finally, Edmure wanted to start hunting Clegane and raiding into the west in turn, to pay the Lannisters back in kind. Lord Hoster was lucid enough to deny that action and instead sent men to King's Landing.

Ned and Brynden -- both commanders of merit -- thought Edmure was more gallant than wise. He's not a complete incompenent, but that he's a relative lightweight and far too foolhardy can't really be denied.

labor
User ID: 0798784 Feb 14th 3:57 PM
Well, Richard, I am always happy to defend my favourite family... the Lannisters ;) ;).

Anyway, Richard, I don't see anything wrong with Tywin's battle plan on the Green Fork.

Sure, he did misjudge Robb, but then Robb is a genius. IMHO, no one, not even those who have seen a rather immature and foolish Robb in Winterfell, could have predicted that he'd turn out this way. IIRC when we see both Robb and Jon together from Bran's POV, it is Jon who comes through as the clever and more mature one...
Certainly, one had to assume that such a good general as Ned would have trained his son properly... But then, he also left at the time when the bulk of Robb's training in military command and rulership should have taken place. And again, no average green 15-year-old, however well trained could be expected to put up such a fight.

Also, none of Robb's lords, with a possible exception of Roose Bolton could be called a gifted general and Tywin had no possible opportunity to learn in time that Blackfish joined Robb. I am pretty sure that Tywin would have been far more cautious if he knew _that_...

Failure to pursue and destroy Bolton after the Green Fork - now that might have been a mistake. After he learned that Robb went straight for Riverrun some days ago with his horse, I can't see how Tywin could have hoped to reach Riverrun in time to do some good. Did he expect Robb to dawdle before attacking? Jeff??
OTOH, Tywin is not as blind to Jaime's weaknesses as you seem to suggest - he knew that Jaime would need help, although a more cautious general wouldn't have, with his numerical superiority.

Ser Gregor's suggestions - well Tywin adopted them after a fashion - he conceded that 8 eyes would see more than 2 and sent out his scouts in fours. And certainly Marbrand, who had central command of the scouts and outriders didn't succomb to Gregor's brutish ideas.

Robb's raid in the west - I am not sure how much of a failure on Tywin's part it was. After all, the goat path was found by Grey Wind, i.e. Robb had supernatural help.

Putting Ser Stafford (aka "Uncle Dolt") in command over the new levies was a big, big mistake, though, and I'd really like to hear about Tywin's reasons.

labor
User ID: 0798784 Feb 14th 4:14 PM
Harrenhal and the Red Fork - well, my take on it is that Tywin was caught in a dilemma - he had enemies in the south and in the north and despite having a fine, seasoned army couldn't fight them both at a time and had to destroy the first opponent with as few losses as possible.

Tywin wanted to beat Robb first and did his best (or worst) to lure him into attack on his conditions by commiting atrocities in the Riverlands. But Robb eluded him.

So, Tywin's only choice remained to lure the southern force (meanwhile under Stannis) into an all-out assault on KL, so that he could hit it from the flank/rear, and break it against the walls, just as Tyrion described to Cersei. Yet in order to bait such a cautious general as Stannis, Tywin had to create an impression that his army was far away and unlikely to be a threat. Hence, a feint(by his cavalry) on the Red Fork, probably highly publisized by the "raven post".
IIRC, news that Tywin was heading west were crucial for Stannis's strategy of the assault on KL...
IMHO, that was the plan Tywin would have followed regardless of the Tyrells.

When and how the Tyrells came into it is a mystery at the moment, but I wouldn't put it beyond Tywin to try to court them on his own, as soon as he learned about the break between them and Stannis.

Richard
User ID: 2212414 Feb 14th 5:07 PM
Well, a few points. First, Labor, is there any evidence from the text that Stannis was thinking about Tywin's attack on the Red Fork when planning his own attack on King's Landing? I don't recall any, but I might have forgotten. Furthermore, I'm hardly arguing that a feint against Edmure would have been foolish, I'm arguing that there is no actual evidence the attack was a feint; motive alone is insufficient. If it was a feint, why did Tywin actually attack, rather than merely demonstrating in front of the river? Why, having been repulsed in his initial attack, did he then spend several hours reconcentrating his army to attack at a single point?

Secondly, I'm certainly not claiming that Edmure is some kind of genius, and I realize that it was Bolton who actually took Harrenhal. That Bolton would attack Harrenhal, however, while Tywin was attacking on the Red Fork, was in fact Edmure's idea, although the execution and specific planning was done by Bolton, the Bloody Mummers, Jaqen H'ghar, and Arya. Is Edmure too emotional? Yes. Was his initial planning of the war ineffectual, largely as a result? Certainly. Tywin's failure to defeat him, therefore, only lends further support to my point.

Thirdly, I'll reiterate that there were several flaws in Tywin's plan to trap the Northerners on the Green Fork. First, it was visibly obvious that Tywin's best, or apparently best troops, at any rate, were on his right, while what looked like his worst were on his left; this looks like a trap. Also, historically, counter-turning manuevers of this kind tend to succeed only when the initially attacked flank, Tyrion's, in this case, gives ground but doesn't break. It is therefore very important for that sector to know the part it is intended to play. As for Tywin's failure to pursue Bolton due to his rather strange belief that he could beat Robb to Riverrun, or his reliance on Stafford, well, my point exactly. :) I agree that Tywin was not wrong to believe that an army in the Golden Tooth would be able to protect the Westlands, I just think that once that fallacy was exposed, his reaction to it could have been wiser.

I think you're right, in that Tywin will be less likely to underestimate Robb in the future. I'm not saying that Tywin is an utter fool, after all. :) I'm just saying that he may not be all he is cracked up to be. This is not, Labor, a criticism of the Lannisters, as I think Tyrion might very well prove a match for Robb. What was GRRM's remark concerning Tyrion's POV status about the "villain being the hero of the other side"?

labor
User ID: 0798784 Feb 14th 5:54 PM
Richard, from Davos's POV: "Strike for King's Landing at once.... Once you dethrone Joffrey this castle must come to you with all the rest. _It is said about the camp that Lord Tywin Lannister rushes west to rescue Lannisport from the vengeance of the northmen..._" Stannis agrees with him.

As to why the feint force put up a fight at the fords - IMHO for the same reason that Bolton fought Lord Tywin - to keep the things as believable as possible for as long as possible. Also, would the news of Lannisters going West be as convincing to Stannis if only some strange maneuvres were reported? And what if mystified riverlanders would want to get a closer look at what is happening?

Harrenhal - what was there to plan? Tywin plainly didn't expect that the garrison he left - a hundred men, would be able to hold it. No brilliant or even competent planning on Edmure's part was required for Bolton's 10K to take it away.

BTW, say what you will, but it seems extremely strange that Tywin left Ser Amory Lorch and Vargo Hoat, who plainly hated each other, together in Harrenhal and it is even fishier that Hoat was the one who came to Bolton and suggested the completely unnecessary subtrefuge. IMHO, there is some Lannister plot in motion there.

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