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A Song of Ice and Fire / A Clash of Kings II / Who doesn't want the Targ's to rule? II

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KAH
User ID: 0541004 Feb 24th 12:58 PM
My message was eaten, goddammit!

Well, as I was saying in that post in the previous topic, Flayed Man's interesting conversation with GRRM rather confirms my suspicions towards the Vale lords - they will not go in one direction, unless Lysa OK's it.

And Lysa won't...so joining Robb (or any other faction, for that matter) depends on the Vale lords who favors war to overthrow Lysa, and take Robert Arryn as a 'ward'.
This, however, opens up another can of worms - all the other lords would see this as an attempt to usurp the power of the Eyrie with foul play, and they will not allow their ambitions to be cut short like that.

So...if any of the lords would want to join Robb, they would have to risk being named traitors of Lysa, which I don't think many would. A few exceptions might do so - Royce foremost among them. It will not be enough to chnge the outcome of the war, in any case.

I wonder about Royce, though...is his friendly disposition towards the Starks something of old, or does it have anything to do with Robar Royce?

Claidhaim
User ID: 8590713 Feb 24th 1:51 PM
I think the Vale will stay out as much as possible. When, or if, Tyrion comes calling to repay his debt, then you might see Lysa's hand forced. As unstable as she was in GOT, I'd bet the Vale would be against the Lannisters.

KAH
User ID: 0541004 Feb 24th 2:04 PM
Well, personally I'm of the mind that Lysa will remain on the fence to see who comes out victoriously, and then possibly sue for peace/friendship with the victor, or remain independent of the rest.

I have more faith in the first, considering how I believe the Lannisters will come out victorious in their battle against the Starks. The joint Lannister-Tyrell alliance have the Redwyne fleet at hand, whereas the North-Riverland has not much to speak of in naval power (and would not have any wish to aggravate/suppress the Vale in any case).
The Redwyne fleet could cause a lot of trouble in the Vale, if the Lannisters had a mind to get Lysa back in the fold.

This will certainly not happen before the issue between lord Tywin and Robb is settled, however. He knows better than to face his enemies all at once.

As for Tyrion...hm. As long as he sticks with his family, I suppose there is a chance he'll try to take the Vale for his father with the help of the wildlings, but with the Tyrell's thrown into the stew, I wonder if Tywin will bother to allow it.

Padraig
User ID: 0707654 Feb 24th 2:31 PM
I too can't see Tywin letting Tyrion interfere with the Vale while he is fighting with Robb. Of course Tyrion might have his own ideas.

One thing about these northern mountain clans. GRRM didn't say they are still loyal to the Starks. Only that they were when the Starks power was strong. With Stark power diminished severely then it could be every clan for itself. Of course they would have even less reason to submit to the Ironborn or BoB. Only raw power will bring them back in line.

KAH
User ID: 0541004 Feb 24th 3:00 PM
I wonder if the mountainmen have enough power to seriously threaten the Vale.
IIRC, in aGoT it was implied that the mountainmen might number some 3K or thereabouts - from the amounts of armor Tyrion asked for them.

It is enough to close of any regular traffic over the High Road, but enough to take the Vale? I wonder.
Besides, Tyrion will have hell trying to command those wildlings - they seem to have a very democratic society. :o)

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Feb 24th 3:06 PM
I've always been curious as to Tyrion's plans for the Vale. Clearly, he came up with something that would get him through the Bloody Gate and on to the Eyrie in some fashion, even with 'just' the wildlings.

Or, I suppose, he figured that if they helped him, he could eventually have them as the spearhead of a general Lannister assault to bring in the Eyrie. Or, if things were done more peacefully, make sure that they got something out of the Vale if they supported him.

Or something. One has to wonder. I guess I can see him managing to win past the Bloody Gate .. but being able to win the whole Vale of Arryn with just the 3k of the clansmen strikes me as incredibly improbable.

Flayed Man
User ID: 9147853 Feb 24th 3:14 PM
If you still think that I am making this up, down load the damn AOL INSTANT MESSENGER and IM HIM!! I AM NOT LYING OR MAKING THIS UP! he said "they are loyal to winter fell..." geez what the @#@$ do you want me to prove more that I am not making this up???? about vale it is divided faction guys who love starks (even join them especially royce), baratheon factions (they want to join stannis) neutral, and factions who wants to join the victor.

Also KAH are you saying that I am a liar?? then what the ##$% do you want me to prove that I m not lying?? also in real life I can't lie because of my own honor code as a cadet of Airforce. if any amongst of you are airforce soldiers or cadets then you would know what I mean. Also Padrig the mountain clans remain loyal to starks @$@#$%in case closed!!! geeez for crying out loud they are fighting. not joining like ones who joined tyrion.

Geez do you guys still want me to bother the busy man? to get the @#$$in confirmation?? well down load the AOL instant messanger and ask him for yourselves!! Also mr martin would not rather answer anything but I basically begged man to answer that question for all of you now you guys and you guys are denying this. What the #$%# do I gain for lying?

Sorry about my language guys but all of your disbelief piss me off and you guys just insulted my word and martin's word himself!!

Dear Revanshe:
you have the closer ties with mr martin himself. so please if you could bother the busy man and get confirmation and posted in this message for these non belivers i will be greatful. please.

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Feb 24th 3:30 PM
Uhm, hey, Flayed, no one questioned what you said?

The closest to a critique is what Padraig said -- and he acknowledged that GRRM said it immediately. He just noted that Mr. Martin left open the possibility that they are no longer loyal now. Which is true.

I'll quote:

GeoRR: yes, they are loyal to Winterfell... at least they have been loyal in the past

They were loyal to the Starks in the past, and one _presumes_ they still are ... but Martin steps back from saying they're loyal _now_. We don't know. So what if they resist the ironborn? Their mountains are close to Deepwood Motte, and I doubt that they'll appreciate ironborn being so close to them.

Of course, your personal opinion can be that that's ridiculous, that they're forever loyal to the Starks. Which is fine. Unsupported, but fine. But you can't go around calling Padraig and whoever else non-believers when they've acknowledged that they take what you posted as GRRM's own words.

Hell, I've put it up on the So Spake Martin collection HTML already (not yet uploaded, but will be soon), and I wouldn't do that if I thought it were fake, would I?

And we thank you for bringing them to us. They've already sparked some very interesting discussion and (at least for me) ideas. :)

Lord Fool
User ID: 6925603 Feb 24th 8:26 PM
With these Northern Mountain men if they are near where the ironborn are raiding could it be possible that Ohsa runs into them and they help raise Rickon.

JaI

Street Prophet
User ID: 2107894 Feb 25th 3:32 AM
Yeah, Flayed Man, stop lying. We all know you lie. You liar.

KAH
User ID: 0541004 Feb 25th 5:11 AM
Street Prophet;

Don't do that, OK? Things are heated enough as it is...

Flayed Man;

I can only reiterate Ran's words - if I thought you were lying, I wouldn't have bothered to comment on the interesting information you brought us. The writing style is unmistakenly GRRM's, so I do not doubt it is his words.

This means that labor owes you an apology, true...but I'm not labor, so I suggest you take up your beefs with her.

As you will find, I'm not so ready to swallow all the _conclusions_ you derive from your conversation with GRRM. Some lords might join Robb, yes.
I'm less convinced that anyone will join Stannis - those Vale lords who favored House Baratheon did so because they liked Robert. Stannis is utterly unlike Robert, as those same lords would know.

Besides, Stannis has basically lost the war. The Vale lords may well say that the letters about Joffrey he sent was lies, and that was the cause of his defeat (the Gods cast him down, or some such). Either because they actually believe it, or because it is convenient to 'believe' it.

Jeff
User ID: 1536664 Feb 25th 7:51 AM
I'm not so sure of the strength of the northern mountain clans either.

If they were so devoutly loyal to the Starks, then they should have sent a large proportion of their fighting power with Robb when he marched south. That would leave them weaker.

We didn't see any "mountain clans" join up with Ser Rodrik when he attempted to retake Winterfell, and haven't heard a peep from them even though ironmen are running all over the western part of the North.

How effective would they be in combat outside their mountains? Shagga and his crew knew they could not face up to the men of the Vale without vastly improved weapons and armor. No reason to think that the northern clans would have better arms or armor.

Flayed, I'm not doubting that those clans are there -- Mr. Martin obviously said so. I'm also not doubting that they at least _were_ loyal to the Starks. It remains to be seen whether they will _stay_ loyal now that things have gone bad. In any case, the Starks will need support from more northerners than just the clans if they hope to recover their position of power. I happen to agree with you that they probably will get that support at some point, but I don't think that will happen until book 4.

Flayed Man
User ID: 9147853 Feb 25th 9:06 AM
Oh mr street prophet you are a strong dany lover. now listen up. as a dany hater i recommand you do this. if you still don't believe me then go down load the damn Aol instant messanger and IM mr martin himself his screen name is (GeoRR). and my mistake on KAH he did believe me about confirmation. now street prophet in real life I am an US airforce ROTC cadet. and as a cadet we are not to lie (most of us any ways) and i take my honor code seriously.

Now street prophet you also owe me apology. go read the converstation with mr martin in WDWTTR I
and if you don't blelive what it said then down load the @#$#in AOL instant messanger and find out if i was lyin or not. and you owe me apology for putting insult to mr martin's very word and to me as well who when through all that trouble and even to bother a man who is about to finish ASOS and I litterally begged the man to answer my question to confirm the suspicion of others.

Labor and street prophet owe me apology now give me apology!!

Ser Gary
User ID: 1523284 Feb 25th 9:55 AM
Flayed,

You and I go back aways, so hear me. You've introduced some new and interesting material here and made some very good points. Don't go and spoil it all by engaging in petty bickering. It isn't necessary and you're too good for that.

Flayed Man
User ID: 9147853 Feb 25th 10:37 AM
Ah i know but i feel insulted by street prophet who thinks I am lying. now what do I have gain by lying, and him thinking that I made the conversation up (obviously he thinks I am lying) is so messed up and he isulted my troubles that i went through to answer for every one who had a suspicion and need confirmation. for labor well i just proved her that mountain clans exist and do serve starks loyal like scottish clans serve kings with loyalty and pride. so she owe me apology on that. hmm i wonder if she is to cluck cluck cluck to show her face here to give me solemn apology.

for street prophet he basically put insults now i still want apology from him then that settles it.

Kristin
User ID: 9885643 Feb 25th 10:39 AM
I thought Street Prophet was joking, actually.

Ser Gary
User ID: 1523284 Feb 25th 12:00 PM
I think he was too, Flayed. Let's give him the benefit of the doubt. Okay?

Flayed Man
User ID: 9147853 Feb 25th 1:20 PM
well I want to hear it from mr dany lover himself. and where is LABOR?? is she too cluck cluck cluck to show her face and give me apology?

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Feb 25th 1:32 PM
Okay, Flayed:

If you don't calm down, I'm going to seriously consider deleting any posts which make such inflamatory demands and statements again. You're going rather too far with this, and it's not fun for anyone. If you can't say something polite, don't say anything at all.

We appreciate your being around and we appreciate the information and discussion you've created, but I think you should behave civilly. Turn the other cheek and all that jazz. As an Air Force ROTC cadet, I imagine that polite behavior is as expected as honesty.

Since you are impeccably honest, you should be just as capable at being impeccably polite. If labor's not around, she's not around. But going after her (and others, by calling them liars or 'dany lovers' or whatnot) like that is beneath you and the uniform you try to wear with honor.

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Feb 25th 1:36 PM
Everyone else:

I ask that perhaps we not feed the flames by responding to inflamatory posts, especially if the response is in return inflammatory (even if <ahem> meant jokingly). I'd hate to see everyone squabbling when what we should be doing is sticking to the thread topic or branching out into discussing this new information elsewhere.

Next 20 Messages Newest Messages

KAH User ID: 0541004	Feb 24th 12:58 PM My message was eaten, goddammit! Well, as I was saying in that post in the previous topic, Flayed Man's interesting conversation with GRRM rather confirms my suspicions towards the Vale lords - they will not go in one direction, unless Lysa OK's it. And Lysa won't...so joining Robb (or any other faction, for that matter) depends on the Vale lords who favors war to overthrow Lysa, and take Robert Arryn as a 'ward'. This, however, opens up another can of worms - all the other lords would see this as an attempt to usurp the power of the Eyrie with foul play, and they will not allow their ambitions to be cut short like that. So...if any of the lords would want to join Robb, they would have to risk being named traitors of Lysa, which I don't think many would. A few exceptions might do so - Royce foremost among them. It will not be enough to chnge the outcome of the war, in any case. I wonder about Royce, though...is his friendly disposition towards the Starks something of old, or does it have anything to do with Robar Royce?
Claidhaim User ID: 8590713	Feb 24th 1:51 PM I think the Vale will stay out as much as possible. When, or if, Tyrion comes calling to repay his debt, then you might see Lysa's hand forced. As unstable as she was in GOT, I'd bet the Vale would be against the Lannisters.
KAH User ID: 0541004	Feb 24th 2:04 PM Well, personally I'm of the mind that Lysa will remain on the fence to see who comes out victoriously, and then possibly sue for peace/friendship with the victor, or remain independent of the rest. I have more faith in the first, considering how I believe the Lannisters will come out victorious in their battle against the Starks. The joint Lannister-Tyrell alliance have the Redwyne fleet at hand, whereas the North-Riverland has not much to speak of in naval power (and would not have any wish to aggravate/suppress the Vale in any case). The Redwyne fleet could cause a lot of trouble in the Vale, if the Lannisters had a mind to get Lysa back in the fold. This will certainly not happen before the issue between lord Tywin and Robb is settled, however. He knows better than to face his enemies all at once. As for Tyrion...hm. As long as he sticks with his family, I suppose there is a chance he'll try to take the Vale for his father with the help of the wildlings, but with the Tyrell's thrown into the stew, I wonder if Tywin will bother to allow it.
Padraig User ID: 0707654	Feb 24th 2:31 PM I too can't see Tywin letting Tyrion interfere with the Vale while he is fighting with Robb. Of course Tyrion might have his own ideas. One thing about these northern mountain clans. GRRM didn't say they are still loyal to the Starks. Only that they were when the Starks power was strong. With Stark power diminished severely then it could be every clan for itself. Of course they would have even less reason to submit to the Ironborn or BoB. Only raw power will bring them back in line.
KAH User ID: 0541004	Feb 24th 3:00 PM I wonder if the mountainmen have enough power to seriously threaten the Vale. IIRC, in aGoT it was implied that the mountainmen might number some 3K or thereabouts - from the amounts of armor Tyrion asked for them. It is enough to close of any regular traffic over the High Road, but enough to take the Vale? I wonder. Besides, Tyrion will have hell trying to command those wildlings - they seem to have a very democratic society. :o)
Ran User ID: 0867924	Feb 24th 3:06 PM I've always been curious as to Tyrion's plans for the Vale. Clearly, he came up with something that would get him through the Bloody Gate and on to the Eyrie in some fashion, even with 'just' the wildlings. Or, I suppose, he figured that if they helped him, he could eventually have them as the spearhead of a general Lannister assault to bring in the Eyrie. Or, if things were done more peacefully, make sure that they got something out of the Vale if they supported him. Or something. One has to wonder. I guess I can see him managing to win past the Bloody Gate .. but being able to win the whole Vale of Arryn with just the 3k of the clansmen strikes me as incredibly improbable.
Flayed Man User ID: 9147853	Feb 24th 3:14 PM If you still think that I am making this up, down load the damn AOL INSTANT MESSENGER and IM HIM!! I AM NOT LYING OR MAKING THIS UP! he said "they are loyal to winter fell..." geez what the @#@$ do you want me to prove more that I am not making this up???? about vale it is divided faction guys who love starks (even join them especially royce), baratheon factions (they want to join stannis) neutral, and factions who wants to join the victor. Also KAH are you saying that I am a liar?? then what the ##$% do you want me to prove that I m not lying?? also in real life I can't lie because of my own honor code as a cadet of Airforce. if any amongst of you are airforce soldiers or cadets then you would know what I mean. Also Padrig the mountain clans remain loyal to starks @$@#$%in case closed!!! geeez for crying out loud they are fighting. not joining like ones who joined tyrion. Geez do you guys still want me to bother the busy man? to get the @#$$in confirmation?? well down load the AOL instant messanger and ask him for yourselves!! Also mr martin would not rather answer anything but I basically begged man to answer that question for all of you now you guys and you guys are denying this. What the #$%# do I gain for lying? Sorry about my language guys but all of your disbelief piss me off and you guys just insulted my word and martin's word himself!! Dear Revanshe: you have the closer ties with mr martin himself. so please if you could bother the busy man and get confirmation and posted in this message for these non belivers i will be greatful. please.
Ran User ID: 0867924	Feb 24th 3:30 PM Uhm, hey, Flayed, no one questioned what you said? The closest to a critique is what Padraig said -- and he acknowledged that GRRM said it immediately. He just noted that Mr. Martin left open the possibility that they are no longer loyal now. Which is true. I'll quote: GeoRR: yes, they are loyal to Winterfell... at least they have been loyal in the past They were loyal to the Starks in the past, and one _presumes_ they still are ... but Martin steps back from saying they're loyal _now_. We don't know. So what if they resist the ironborn? Their mountains are close to Deepwood Motte, and I doubt that they'll appreciate ironborn being so close to them. Of course, your personal opinion can be that that's ridiculous, that they're forever loyal to the Starks. Which is fine. Unsupported, but fine. But you can't go around calling Padraig and whoever else non-believers when they've acknowledged that they take what you posted as GRRM's own words. Hell, I've put it up on the So Spake Martin collection HTML already (not yet uploaded, but will be soon), and I wouldn't do that if I thought it were fake, would I? And we thank you for bringing them to us. They've already sparked some very interesting discussion and (at least for me) ideas. :)
Lord Fool User ID: 6925603	Feb 24th 8:26 PM With these Northern Mountain men if they are near where the ironborn are raiding could it be possible that Ohsa runs into them and they help raise Rickon. JaI
Street Prophet User ID: 2107894	Feb 25th 3:32 AM Yeah, Flayed Man, stop lying. We all know you lie. You liar.
KAH User ID: 0541004	Feb 25th 5:11 AM Street Prophet; Don't do that, OK? Things are heated enough as it is... Flayed Man; I can only reiterate Ran's words - if I thought you were lying, I wouldn't have bothered to comment on the interesting information you brought us. The writing style is unmistakenly GRRM's, so I do not doubt it is his words. This means that labor owes you an apology, true...but I'm not labor, so I suggest you take up your beefs with her. As you will find, I'm not so ready to swallow all the _conclusions_ you derive from your conversation with GRRM. Some lords might join Robb, yes. I'm less convinced that anyone will join Stannis - those Vale lords who favored House Baratheon did so because they liked Robert. Stannis is utterly unlike Robert, as those same lords would know. Besides, Stannis has basically lost the war. The Vale lords may well say that the letters about Joffrey he sent was lies, and that was the cause of his defeat (the Gods cast him down, or some such). Either because they actually believe it, or because it is convenient to 'believe' it.
Jeff User ID: 1536664	Feb 25th 7:51 AM I'm not so sure of the strength of the northern mountain clans either. If they were so devoutly loyal to the Starks, then they should have sent a large proportion of their fighting power with Robb when he marched south. That would leave them weaker. We didn't see any "mountain clans" join up with Ser Rodrik when he attempted to retake Winterfell, and haven't heard a peep from them even though ironmen are running all over the western part of the North. How effective would they be in combat outside their mountains? Shagga and his crew knew they could not face up to the men of the Vale without vastly improved weapons and armor. No reason to think that the northern clans would have better arms or armor. Flayed, I'm not doubting that those clans are there -- Mr. Martin obviously said so. I'm also not doubting that they at least _were_ loyal to the Starks. It remains to be seen whether they will _stay_ loyal now that things have gone bad. In any case, the Starks will need support from more northerners than just the clans if they hope to recover their position of power. I happen to agree with you that they probably will get that support at some point, but I don't think that will happen until book 4.
Flayed Man User ID: 9147853	Feb 25th 9:06 AM Oh mr street prophet you are a strong dany lover. now listen up. as a dany hater i recommand you do this. if you still don't believe me then go down load the damn Aol instant messanger and IM mr martin himself his screen name is (GeoRR). and my mistake on KAH he did believe me about confirmation. now street prophet in real life I am an US airforce ROTC cadet. and as a cadet we are not to lie (most of us any ways) and i take my honor code seriously. Now street prophet you also owe me apology. go read the converstation with mr martin in WDWTTR I and if you don't blelive what it said then down load the @#$#in AOL instant messanger and find out if i was lyin or not. and you owe me apology for putting insult to mr martin's very word and to me as well who when through all that trouble and even to bother a man who is about to finish ASOS and I litterally begged the man to answer my question to confirm the suspicion of others. Labor and street prophet owe me apology now give me apology!!
Ser Gary User ID: 1523284	Feb 25th 9:55 AM Flayed, You and I go back aways, so hear me. You've introduced some new and interesting material here and made some very good points. Don't go and spoil it all by engaging in petty bickering. It isn't necessary and you're too good for that.
Flayed Man User ID: 9147853	Feb 25th 10:37 AM Ah i know but i feel insulted by street prophet who thinks I am lying. now what do I have gain by lying, and him thinking that I made the conversation up (obviously he thinks I am lying) is so messed up and he isulted my troubles that i went through to answer for every one who had a suspicion and need confirmation. for labor well i just proved her that mountain clans exist and do serve starks loyal like scottish clans serve kings with loyalty and pride. so she owe me apology on that. hmm i wonder if she is to cluck cluck cluck to show her face here to give me solemn apology. for street prophet he basically put insults now i still want apology from him then that settles it.
Kristin User ID: 9885643	Feb 25th 10:39 AM I thought Street Prophet was joking, actually.
Ser Gary User ID: 1523284	Feb 25th 12:00 PM I think he was too, Flayed. Let's give him the benefit of the doubt. Okay?
Flayed Man User ID: 9147853	Feb 25th 1:20 PM well I want to hear it from mr dany lover himself. and where is LABOR?? is she too cluck cluck cluck to show her face and give me apology?
Ran User ID: 0867924	Feb 25th 1:32 PM Okay, Flayed: If you don't calm down, I'm going to seriously consider deleting any posts which make such inflamatory demands and statements again. You're going rather too far with this, and it's not fun for anyone. If you can't say something polite, don't say anything at all. We appreciate your being around and we appreciate the information and discussion you've created, but I think you should behave civilly. Turn the other cheek and all that jazz. As an Air Force ROTC cadet, I imagine that polite behavior is as expected as honesty. Since you are impeccably honest, you should be just as capable at being impeccably polite. If labor's not around, she's not around. But going after her (and others, by calling them liars or 'dany lovers' or whatnot) like that is beneath you and the uniform you try to wear with honor.
Ran User ID: 0867924	Feb 25th 1:36 PM Everyone else: I ask that perhaps we not feed the flames by responding to inflamatory posts, especially if the response is in return inflammatory (even if <ahem> meant jokingly). I'd hate to see everyone squabbling when what we should be doing is sticking to the thread topic or branching out into discussing this new information elsewhere.