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A Song of Ice and Fire / A Clash of Kings II / A tactical failure

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Strategon
User ID: 8729803 Feb 24th 1:15 PM
As we can read in AGOT and ACOC, the army of the Starks is doing well against the pesky Lannisters. Robb (or better, he and his advisors) seem to be good in military strategy.
But how could he leave Winterfell without any real protection? This was an absolutely tactical failure of Robb. Of course, he could'nt know that Theon would betray him. But there have been other enemies as well. What if Mance Rayders army would have come from the north (the Brothers of the Wall are not in the condition to beat him), and there are many rogues around Winterfell as well.
In a sense, the fall of Winterfell was just a matter of time. How dull was it to begin a war with the Lannisters (a war which will keep on at least two or three years) but leaving the home castle without troups.
What do you think about this tactical failure?

KAH
User ID: 0541004 Feb 24th 1:25 PM
Well, Winterfell would probably not have fallen if Ser Rodrik had not taken so many men with him, as to strip the garrison down.

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Feb 24th 1:31 PM
There were over 2,000 men more or less immediately available to Winterfell -- well, within a week or two, with 600 or so very much immediately available.

Then one can imagine there could probably be at least another several hundred gatherable if there were more time. And there was the force at Moat Cailin.

And we've just recently learned that there are some sort of clans in the mountains north of Winterfell which appear to be loyal to the Starks. I imagine their main involvement in anything has been guarding their own territory against ironborn incursions from Deepwood Motte and the occasional wildlings from Beyond the Wall who sneak down around the Shadow Tower.

All considered, that seems plentiful. Even though these clansmen, whatever their number probably tend to stick to their own land, if a wildling army decides to try to march close to those mountains (which they'd have to if they intend to use the kingsroad) then they may find themselves harrassed by the clansmen.

Unless, of course, the clansmen find that Mance Rayder and their spiritual kin beyond the Wall are better than the current chaos of ironborn and Boltons.

Of course, that was a digression. In any case, I thought the figures personally reasonable. The only real error would be not being aware of the treachey from the Dreadfort -- but that was kind of impossible.

I suppose the real fault lies with Ser Rodrik -- he's the one who abandoned Winterfell, taking all his men to go lift the siege of Torrhen's Square. If he had left even two dozen more swords, Winterfell would probably not have fallen.

SteveNJ
User ID: 9426023 Feb 24th 1:32 PM
I agree KAH, and also, as far as the Wall situation goes, if they were to be attacked by Mance Rayder, I think they would be sending out their fastest birds. :)

Strategon
User ID: 8729803 Feb 24th 1:38 PM
Kah and Ran, you are right. It was defenitly Rodriks fault. But what a big fault! Thats my point. How can a man which such an experience like Rodrik make such a fault?
I hope the Starks will not have more "bad surprises" with Rodrik in their backs.

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Feb 24th 2:06 PM
I think Rodrik suffered from the same thing as Ned -- too much trust in the honor of other men. He thought the Bolton situation was dealt with (since he believed the Bastard was dead) and that there would be no other threats. Not an unreasonable assumption, given the seeming-finality of Ramsey's death -- but it was a mistake.

The bigger mistake, I suppose, was the massive response. The only thing I can figure is that he had reports from villagers, no doubt conflated, of many ships raiding along the Stony Shore ... and then he presumed that most of those raiders were with Cleftjaw at Torrhen's Square. But then he had bad intelligence, and his response was still just a little overblown.

Padraig
User ID: 0707654 Feb 24th 2:21 PM
And the Ironborn had no interest in taking Winterfell. Rodrik could have thought the same thing. Unfortunately Theon had other ideas.

The wildings would take forever to get anywhere in mass. They are just too many of them I would imagine.

Rughead
User ID: 0665994 Feb 29th 9:25 PM
I agree with Ran. Martin seems to be extending the doltish behavior of Ned throught his castellan.

Relic
User ID: 9308123 Feb 29th 9:30 PM
Ran when did you learn that there are clans of mountain men that are loayal to the Starks? We have not heard a single thing about them in the books...

KAH
User ID: 0541004 Mar 1st 4:36 AM
Flayed had a little conversation with GRRM - that's where we learned it.

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Mar 1st 5:31 AM
It's now in the So Spake Martin collection at:

www.westeros.org/Heraldry/SoSpakeMartin-SSC.html

Last post. I'll be adding more soon, recent things from GRRM.

Jeff
User ID: 1536664 Mar 1st 11:21 AM
I think that the betrayal by the Bolton's and even by the ironmen was sort of tough to predict. Rodrik really screwed up there.

But I think Robb arguably made a more strategic error. Osha made the comment that Robb was marching in the wrong direction when he led his army south. She had a good point. Winter is approaching, and the primary responsibility of the Starks is to defend the people of the North. Robb could not have predicted treachery, but he also could not have predicted victory in the South. Suppose the Stark army would have been wiped out? That's always possible in war. But in this case, the maesters already were predicting a bad winter and the loss of Robb's army would have left the North very vulnerable even without treachery.

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Mar 1st 11:42 AM
On the other hand, when he marched, it was still summer. Though the autumn was approaching, it seems that in general one can expect at least six months to a year of autumn -- if not more.

While taking the men away would reduce the harvest somewhat, it certainly isn't a big error. Sure, he could lose ... and run back to the Neck and shut the door on anyone chasing after him. He'd lick his wounds, maybe sue for peace, and that's that.

I also don't believe the maesters predicted a bad winter. Common belief seems to run that a long summer means a bad winter, but the maesters don't seem to believe that that's necessarily the case.

Jeff
User ID: 1536664 Mar 1st 11:58 AM
Shutting the door on the Neck doesn't help when the threat is coming from the North. Even if there is an extended autumn, that might not be enough time to recover from a major defeat in the South.

I'm not saying that Robb was necessarily wrong for marching south, but I think if there is a blameworthy error, that was probably it. Maybe ignoring Catelyn's advice not to send Theon as an emissary also was not a good decision.

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Mar 1st 12:06 PM
Hrm. Of course, three thousand or four thousand me n in the North -- even after a major military disaster -- ought to be enough to deal with any likely trouble. And some unlikely ones. Of course there are wildlings, but the Night's Watch and the Wall should seriously crimp their style under normal circumstances.

And then there's the rather unlikely problem of raiders from the Iron Islands, but I think everyone agrees that a well-led force of mainlanders can defeat the ironborn under most circumstances. Finally, there's the possibility of a rebel ... but under most circumstances, they've been hit as hard (if not harder) than yourself and shouldn't be a major problem.

I just can't see Robb being held to blame. Osha certainly never tried to explain what she meant by going south. Why didn't she tell Bran to tell Robb that the Others are around and that she needs to speak to him? So all he gets, in the middle of a crisis, is his kid brother telling him that the local captive wildling wench has told him he should be marching north. Not convincing.

The Theon thing was definently a mistake, though. Even if Theon had appeared entirely loyal and devoted ... it was unfair to Theon, if one looks at it in a certain way, to thrust him back into contact with his family, where his loyalties might be divided.

The bigger error than sending Theon, of course, was believing that Balon Greyjoy would take the offered crown and fight for the Starks. He had absolutely no basis for believing that, and should never have given it any real consideration.

KAH
User ID: 0541004 Mar 1st 12:09 PM
Also...wouldn't a bad winter [assuming the Others away for the moment] actually make the Northlands _safer_?

I'm admittedly not all that sharp on medieval warfare, but I thought that most active campaigns were not conducted in the heart of winter.
Forage outside looting enemy stores would be difficult, those enemy stores would be less than plentiful as winter goes by, and the enemy would fight all the fiercer for it then, as well.

In addition, your men would be tenfold more likely to desert, as marching between battles would entail huddling in the snow a few hours every night, under an old blanket or a tent (if you're lucky), trying not to freeze to death in your sleep.

Of course, the wildlings are probably used to a bit of cold and food scarcity, but I would venture
that their leaders would prefer making any major attacks in other seasons than winter. Especially considering the lack of discipline among them (as Qhorin noted).

I'm assuming that if the war in the Riverlands had drawn on into winter, Robb would eventually have taken his army home.

Ran
User ID: 0867924 Mar 1st 12:20 PM
That's my guess too. He'd leave some force to stiffen the Riverlands and send most of them back home so they can depend on the stores there rather than taxing the already-overburdened Trident.

The wildlings wouldn't have made much of a threat, I guess, in the depths of winter. Too busy trying to survive themselves to go off fighting others. I suppose the ironborn might be slightly less restricted ... but there's a lot of factors which would probably put their raiding to a halt as well.

Padraig
User ID: 9433023 Mar 1st 2:58 PM
Does anyone else think that Theon was one of the main people behind the idea that the Ironmen would support Robb? A case of Robb naively believing in his friendship with Theon. I certainly believe that Theon would have been insulted if someone else was sent in his place.

I don't think Robb's offer was that bad. The Lannisters never offered Balon anything. And Theon was Balon's only son. There was no reason to think Theon's position was undermined completely by Asha. Even now not many people here are giving the Ironmen much chance of holding the North. Balon seems to be driven more by revenge and madness than actual hopes of longterm victory. So why would Robb think that he would rebel?

Jeff
User ID: 1536664 Mar 1st 3:09 PM
I think the wildings would be a greater threat during a more severe winter because of their need to obtain food and shelter. When the winter is mild, they may be able to survive north of the Wall. But if the winter is severe, they will be forced south in sort of a massed migration/invasion. The threat isn't the worst in the depths of winter -- its probably going to be the worst as winter approaches and arrives further north because that's when the wildings will move.

Winter might also make it harder to defend the north because responsive troop movements are hampered. If a whole batch of wildings breach the Wall, it would be far more difficult to assemble a powerful counterattack force and quickly respond. "The Wildings have taken Deepwood Motte". "Too bad -- there's no way to get a relief force up there."

Padraig
User ID: 9433023 Mar 1st 3:34 PM
Well I do believe that the only reason that the wildings are coming into the fray is because of the Others. I don't know how long the Wildings have existed beyond the Wall but it must be for several hundred years, and at least a couple of longish winters. In other words even if Robb had stayed north the Wildings would still have tried to break through the Wall.

The Others were the joker in the pack that Robb could not have guessed.

Next 20 Messages Newest Messages

Strategon User ID: 8729803	Feb 24th 1:15 PM As we can read in AGOT and ACOC, the army of the Starks is doing well against the pesky Lannisters. Robb (or better, he and his advisors) seem to be good in military strategy. But how could he leave Winterfell without any real protection? This was an absolutely tactical failure of Robb. Of course, he could'nt know that Theon would betray him. But there have been other enemies as well. What if Mance Rayders army would have come from the north (the Brothers of the Wall are not in the condition to beat him), and there are many rogues around Winterfell as well. In a sense, the fall of Winterfell was just a matter of time. How dull was it to begin a war with the Lannisters (a war which will keep on at least two or three years) but leaving the home castle without troups. What do you think about this tactical failure?
KAH User ID: 0541004	Feb 24th 1:25 PM Well, Winterfell would probably not have fallen if Ser Rodrik had not taken so many men with him, as to strip the garrison down.
Ran User ID: 0867924	Feb 24th 1:31 PM There were over 2,000 men more or less immediately available to Winterfell -- well, within a week or two, with 600 or so very much immediately available. Then one can imagine there could probably be at least another several hundred gatherable if there were more time. And there was the force at Moat Cailin. And we've just recently learned that there are some sort of clans in the mountains north of Winterfell which appear to be loyal to the Starks. I imagine their main involvement in anything has been guarding their own territory against ironborn incursions from Deepwood Motte and the occasional wildlings from Beyond the Wall who sneak down around the Shadow Tower. All considered, that seems plentiful. Even though these clansmen, whatever their number probably tend to stick to their own land, if a wildling army decides to try to march close to those mountains (which they'd have to if they intend to use the kingsroad) then they may find themselves harrassed by the clansmen. Unless, of course, the clansmen find that Mance Rayder and their spiritual kin beyond the Wall are better than the current chaos of ironborn and Boltons. Of course, that was a digression. In any case, I thought the figures personally reasonable. The only real error would be not being aware of the treachey from the Dreadfort -- but that was kind of impossible. I suppose the real fault lies with Ser Rodrik -- he's the one who abandoned Winterfell, taking all his men to go lift the siege of Torrhen's Square. If he had left even two dozen more swords, Winterfell would probably not have fallen.
SteveNJ User ID: 9426023	Feb 24th 1:32 PM I agree KAH, and also, as far as the Wall situation goes, if they were to be attacked by Mance Rayder, I think they would be sending out their fastest birds. :)
Strategon User ID: 8729803	Feb 24th 1:38 PM Kah and Ran, you are right. It was defenitly Rodriks fault. But what a big fault! Thats my point. How can a man which such an experience like Rodrik make such a fault? I hope the Starks will not have more "bad surprises" with Rodrik in their backs.
Ran User ID: 0867924	Feb 24th 2:06 PM I think Rodrik suffered from the same thing as Ned -- too much trust in the honor of other men. He thought the Bolton situation was dealt with (since he believed the Bastard was dead) and that there would be no other threats. Not an unreasonable assumption, given the seeming-finality of Ramsey's death -- but it was a mistake. The bigger mistake, I suppose, was the massive response. The only thing I can figure is that he had reports from villagers, no doubt conflated, of many ships raiding along the Stony Shore ... and then he presumed that most of those raiders were with Cleftjaw at Torrhen's Square. But then he had bad intelligence, and his response was still just a little overblown.
Padraig User ID: 0707654	Feb 24th 2:21 PM And the Ironborn had no interest in taking Winterfell. Rodrik could have thought the same thing. Unfortunately Theon had other ideas. The wildings would take forever to get anywhere in mass. They are just too many of them I would imagine.
Rughead User ID: 0665994	Feb 29th 9:25 PM I agree with Ran. Martin seems to be extending the doltish behavior of Ned throught his castellan.
Relic User ID: 9308123	Feb 29th 9:30 PM Ran when did you learn that there are clans of mountain men that are loayal to the Starks? We have not heard a single thing about them in the books...
KAH User ID: 0541004	Mar 1st 4:36 AM Flayed had a little conversation with GRRM - that's where we learned it.
Ran User ID: 0867924	Mar 1st 5:31 AM It's now in the So Spake Martin collection at: www.westeros.org/Heraldry/SoSpakeMartin-SSC.html Last post. I'll be adding more soon, recent things from GRRM.
Jeff User ID: 1536664	Mar 1st 11:21 AM I think that the betrayal by the Bolton's and even by the ironmen was sort of tough to predict. Rodrik really screwed up there. But I think Robb arguably made a more strategic error. Osha made the comment that Robb was marching in the wrong direction when he led his army south. She had a good point. Winter is approaching, and the primary responsibility of the Starks is to defend the people of the North. Robb could not have predicted treachery, but he also could not have predicted victory in the South. Suppose the Stark army would have been wiped out? That's always possible in war. But in this case, the maesters already were predicting a bad winter and the loss of Robb's army would have left the North very vulnerable even without treachery.
Ran User ID: 0867924	Mar 1st 11:42 AM On the other hand, when he marched, it was still summer. Though the autumn was approaching, it seems that in general one can expect at least six months to a year of autumn -- if not more. While taking the men away would reduce the harvest somewhat, it certainly isn't a big error. Sure, he could lose ... and run back to the Neck and shut the door on anyone chasing after him. He'd lick his wounds, maybe sue for peace, and that's that. I also don't believe the maesters predicted a bad winter. Common belief seems to run that a long summer means a bad winter, but the maesters don't seem to believe that that's necessarily the case.
Jeff User ID: 1536664	Mar 1st 11:58 AM Shutting the door on the Neck doesn't help when the threat is coming from the North. Even if there is an extended autumn, that might not be enough time to recover from a major defeat in the South. I'm not saying that Robb was necessarily wrong for marching south, but I think if there is a blameworthy error, that was probably it. Maybe ignoring Catelyn's advice not to send Theon as an emissary also was not a good decision.
Ran User ID: 0867924	Mar 1st 12:06 PM Hrm. Of course, three thousand or four thousand me n in the North -- even after a major military disaster -- ought to be enough to deal with any likely trouble. And some unlikely ones. Of course there are wildlings, but the Night's Watch and the Wall should seriously crimp their style under normal circumstances. And then there's the rather unlikely problem of raiders from the Iron Islands, but I think everyone agrees that a well-led force of mainlanders can defeat the ironborn under most circumstances. Finally, there's the possibility of a rebel ... but under most circumstances, they've been hit as hard (if not harder) than yourself and shouldn't be a major problem. I just can't see Robb being held to blame. Osha certainly never tried to explain what she meant by going south. Why didn't she tell Bran to tell Robb that the Others are around and that she needs to speak to him? So all he gets, in the middle of a crisis, is his kid brother telling him that the local captive wildling wench has told him he should be marching north. Not convincing. The Theon thing was definently a mistake, though. Even if Theon had appeared entirely loyal and devoted ... it was unfair to Theon, if one looks at it in a certain way, to thrust him back into contact with his family, where his loyalties might be divided. The bigger error than sending Theon, of course, was believing that Balon Greyjoy would take the offered crown and fight for the Starks. He had absolutely no basis for believing that, and should never have given it any real consideration.
KAH User ID: 0541004	Mar 1st 12:09 PM Also...wouldn't a bad winter [assuming the Others away for the moment] actually make the Northlands _safer_? I'm admittedly not all that sharp on medieval warfare, but I thought that most active campaigns were not conducted in the heart of winter. Forage outside looting enemy stores would be difficult, those enemy stores would be less than plentiful as winter goes by, and the enemy would fight all the fiercer for it then, as well. In addition, your men would be tenfold more likely to desert, as marching between battles would entail huddling in the snow a few hours every night, under an old blanket or a tent (if you're lucky), trying not to freeze to death in your sleep. Of course, the wildlings are probably used to a bit of cold and food scarcity, but I would venture that their leaders would prefer making any major attacks in other seasons than winter. Especially considering the lack of discipline among them (as Qhorin noted). I'm assuming that if the war in the Riverlands had drawn on into winter, Robb would eventually have taken his army home.
Ran User ID: 0867924	Mar 1st 12:20 PM That's my guess too. He'd leave some force to stiffen the Riverlands and send most of them back home so they can depend on the stores there rather than taxing the already-overburdened Trident. The wildlings wouldn't have made much of a threat, I guess, in the depths of winter. Too busy trying to survive themselves to go off fighting others. I suppose the ironborn might be slightly less restricted ... but there's a lot of factors which would probably put their raiding to a halt as well.
Padraig User ID: 9433023	Mar 1st 2:58 PM Does anyone else think that Theon was one of the main people behind the idea that the Ironmen would support Robb? A case of Robb naively believing in his friendship with Theon. I certainly believe that Theon would have been insulted if someone else was sent in his place. I don't think Robb's offer was that bad. The Lannisters never offered Balon anything. And Theon was Balon's only son. There was no reason to think Theon's position was undermined completely by Asha. Even now not many people here are giving the Ironmen much chance of holding the North. Balon seems to be driven more by revenge and madness than actual hopes of longterm victory. So why would Robb think that he would rebel?
Jeff User ID: 1536664	Mar 1st 3:09 PM I think the wildings would be a greater threat during a more severe winter because of their need to obtain food and shelter. When the winter is mild, they may be able to survive north of the Wall. But if the winter is severe, they will be forced south in sort of a massed migration/invasion. The threat isn't the worst in the depths of winter -- its probably going to be the worst as winter approaches and arrives further north because that's when the wildings will move. Winter might also make it harder to defend the north because responsive troop movements are hampered. If a whole batch of wildings breach the Wall, it would be far more difficult to assemble a powerful counterattack force and quickly respond. "The Wildings have taken Deepwood Motte". "Too bad -- there's no way to get a relief force up there."
Padraig User ID: 9433023	Mar 1st 3:34 PM Well I do believe that the only reason that the wildings are coming into the fray is because of the Others. I don't know how long the Wildings have existed beyond the Wall but it must be for several hundred years, and at least a couple of longish winters. In other words even if Robb had stayed north the Wildings would still have tried to break through the Wall. The Others were the joker in the pack that Robb could not have guessed.