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A Song of Ice and Fire / A Clash of Kings II / The Attempted Assasination of Bran

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Lirvon Apr 15th 2:21 AM
Has anyone considered that the purpose of the attempted assasination of Bran might have been to burn down the Stark library, and do it in such a way that nobody thinks twice about it? After all, who knows what old records the Starks had stored there which might interfere with somebody's plans...

And that could lend new importance to the library at the wall which was introduced to us in ACOK. And what do you know, we conveniently will get a new POV that will likely be spending some time rummaging around down there ;)

Just another possibility, which if you buy raises another question - What could possibly have been in the stark library that would warrent taking such a risk to destroy?
Ran
User ID: 0867924 		Apr 15th 5:14 AM
I think it's ... improbable to think that the purpose of trying to get Bran, in that particular fashion, was just to distract people from the library. What's the point? He could have torched it and left it at that -- no one would know whether a candle fell over or whether if it was arson.

Either way, it'd be impossible for them to know why it was burned. Winterfell's library had over a hundred books, some more important than others, but there'd be nothing in particular that they could possibly settle on.
Snake
User ID: 0101764 		Apr 15th 4:17 PM
To continue on about GUCT...

The assassin was sent to kill Bran. Why? How could Littlefinger know what was going to happen there. I know that GUCT suggests that any Stark child would do, but then there would be no motive.
At least with the attempt on Bran Cat and Co. began to believe, correctly I might add, that Bran saw Jaime and Cersei doing or saying something wrong and that they had tried to kill him. If Bran had not seen Jaime and Cersei and was still killed, what motive could the Lannisters have for doing it. To get back at Ned because Ned doesn't like them. The more I think about it the less sense it makes. GUCT that is.
Ran
User ID: 0867924 		Apr 15th 4:24 PM
Ahh. Rickon is a three-year-old child.

What might little Rickon have seen that earned him his death (or at least an attempt at his death)? It seems to me very, very easy for a little child to see something, and really not know what to make of it, and just forget about it. But ... the people he saw, or whatever, couldn't trust that. So, they had to kill him.

Follows pretty well, doesn't it?

Also, Bran wouldn't have been an option. Only Rickon or Robb would be, really -- they were the ones likely to remain in Winterfell. And Rickon is a far easier target than Robb. It's also far easier to wonder what the boy saw -- Robb, if he survived, could have made it plain that there was no reason to try to kill him (well, unless it's supposed to be simply a killing of the heir to Winterfell, which seems weak.)

I've mostly decided that saying 'any child will do' is a little too far. Rickon is certainly by far the best choice, under normal circumstances, and would work just as well if the attempt succeeded or failed.
Snake
User ID: 0101764 		Apr 15th 4:56 PM
Yes but what if Jaime went on the hunt? What then? There is no way to pin it on the Lannisters. And how could Petyr know what Jaime was going to do. He couldn't. Answer me this. If Jaime went hunting and Cersei stayed in view what would the plan have been then?
Ran
User ID: 0867924 		Apr 15th 5:20 PM
To kill Rickon after the party had left? Because that was always the plan.

Kill Rickon, or try to kill him, and leave the Starks wondering who would send a paid assassin to kill a boy. And then you have to conclude that there must be a reason. And even if Rickon can't tell you what it was, the fact remains that someone sent a knife after him.

Jaime going or staying is immaterial. Bran falling or not, Bran seeing something or not, Rickon seeing something or not -- all immaterial. The simple fact that someone tried or managed to kill the youngest Stark boy, obviously paid, with a knife of such value that it must be telling ... is telling.

The only thing that Jaime staying had to do with anything is that he just happened to stay the same day as the hunt, which was unexpected and unusual. And, of course, on the same day Jaime does something unusual, Bran suddenly falls.

But, suppose they saw little Rickon overhearing some conversation, maybe something about Jon Arryn ... ? Even if Rickon didn't understand what he saw, they'd "have" to kill him.

Or so, almost certainly, the Starks might start to think. But the fact is that they still need to get proof. And the proof can only be in KL, with the knife as the only clue.
Jeff
User ID: 8813033 		Apr 15th 11:04 PM
Snake, I think you've pointed out the biggest weakness in the GUCT -- that the killing of a Stark child by a Lannister seems too implausible under most circumstances. The Lannisters looked like suspects only in the context of Bran's fall and Catelyn's recollection of Cersei and Jaime not going hunting the day Bran fell. Other than that, there's really not much of a reason for anybody to blame the Lannisters for the attempted assasination. It seems like a _huge_ risk for Littlefinger to order the death of a Stark child when there's little chance of it being pinned on the Lannisters.

BUT, to argue against myself, I suppose Littlefinger maybe just got lucky here. Maybe he planned on the murder of Stark child being only one step in a longer plan of sowing suspicion between the two families. So he has Lysa send a note to Catelyn. Then a Stark child gets killed under suspicious circumstances. And then maybe he planned on doing something else after the Starks made it to KL. But, he just got lucky with Bran's fall because it caused some suspicion much sooner than it might have otherwise.
Ran
User ID: 0867924 		Apr 16th 1:53 AM
I don't follow this myself. Unless one presumes that Rickon's death would make no one wonder why the hell someone went out and hired a killer to kill him, suspicion would be seeded, and almost certainly someone would be taking that knife to KL to try to learn more.

As I said, he's three years old. I think a hysterical, grief-stricken, angry mother could convince herself he had seen the Seven perform an impromptu orgy in the godswood and offed them himself. It doesn't need to be sensible thinking, so long as the fact remains that he was killed, and not randomly.
Ran
User ID: 0867924 		Apr 16th 2:03 AM
BTW,

I should note what _I_ think is the greatest weakness in the theory. Which is that, if the attempt succeeded, it seems to me that the odds are good that Catelyn would be so grief-stricken as to not leave Winterfell.

Someone else -- just Rodrik and one of the guards, who didn't exactly grow up with Littlefinger, for instance -- arriving in KL would mean a lot less opportunity for Littlefinger to push his way forward into Ned's trust. I'm sure he would have given an effort ... but I suppose he might well have seen the attempt as a partial failure -- it increases tension, no doubt, and it gives him a little chance to convince Ned of his honesty, but not nearly as much as before.

If anything, I suppose this would say that Littlefinger had plans up his sleeve if he didn't get quite as much value out of the attempt as he had hoped. But I do think that the event was instrumental to his plans -- it sped up the process all around. Maybe a little, maybe a lot, but more than he might have hoped starting cold, given that Ned only knew him for the idiot who fought his big brother.

Or, of course, perhaps I read Cat wrong. She might well be so angry that she'd push grief aside a little, off on a crusade to find her little boy's killer.
Padraig
User ID: 1940534 		Apr 16th 11:29 AM
Moving conversation on Bran away from the Jaime Lannister topic and onto here.

Ran, I never meant to suggest that the knfe means anything to Littlefinger just that it might mean something to the assasin. After killing a child with it I don't see him just dropping it or forgettng about it. For one thing it could be a useful weapon in his escape plan and another its valuable.

I don't understand why you say Littlefinger could pull off such a great plan but he couldn't make Ned trust him a little without it. I know what I think is a easier objective.

And I think you underestimate the effect of the message from Lysa. It made Ned very determined to find his friends murders. He would be very open to more anti-Lannister disinforamtion when he arrived in KL.

Catelyn never considered the Lannisters could be framed. If she had she may have been a bit more careful with Littlefinger's evidence falling so neatly into the anti-Lannister pile.

Personally I think Ned was doomed. KL was awash with conspiracies and corruption. There was very little chance that he could survive that.

Ordering children killed is not an easy opportunity to exploit tensions. To get involved in something which he had so little control of for so little gain I don't buy. Sending a loaded message to Ned about Jon's death was easy OTOH.

And this idea about killing a 3 year old a couple of weeks after he may have seen something. I just don't see Littlefinger ordering that. I would consider that a very strange plan.

I don't know. I've gone over this before and who knows while waiting for aSoS I may go over it again.
Ran
User ID: 0867924 		Apr 16th 11:48 AM
I daresay a stupid catspaw could have it impressed on him that that knife better be dropped, or he'll not get the rest of his reward, or something such.

And, as I said, there's any number of ways to make it seem that the knife was dropped in the haste to escape. If the guy managed to escape, obviously the knife _wasn't_ so important to his escape plans as to be absolutely necessary, no?

And I didn't say that he couldn't make Ned trust him -- he simply couldn't win his trust quickly enough for his purposes. He obviously saw the way the tensions were going, and he needed to get in early in hopes of exploiting things to his own end, or they might move so fast and so inevitably that he'd be sitting out in the cold without any reward to speak of. And that'd be anathema to a greedy, ambitious man like Littlefinger.

I agree that Ned was doomed. I'm just not sure that one can imagine, easily, Littlefinger being so very instrumental to that doom without his having gained Cat's and Ned's support early.

As for the attempt, checking again, it was just about a week after Ned left that the guy showed up to kill Bran. And why in the world would it be strange to order a hit on someone after the likely suspects are gone, to avoid questions? I mean, who _else_ in the world could possibly want to hurt the Starks by killing a child? The Lannisters, by proximity, by that message, and so on, are by far likeliest.

Obviously, if Robert and Cersei and Jaime were all at Winterfell when someone tried to kill Bran, things would have fallen out _very_ differently.
Especially, let us remember, given that Littlefinger's connection to the dagger -- and Tyrion's lack of connection to it -- would be immediately revealed. What in the world would be the point of that, unless you want your head decorating a spike real fast? ;)

I don't know about you, but I don't think a three-year-old would run to mama because he overheard something about some hand going to sleep and not waking up any more. Or however you'd want to construe it -- kids are kids. Watching Jaime and Cersei in the throes of passion is one thing, but I think it's extremely easy for an angry, grieving person to make te logical step, 'If someone killed Rickon, there's a reason, and we need to use this one clue to find out who did it and why.' And, when wondering at the reason, deciding that it very probably has to do with the poor child overhearing something he shouldn't have, and not realizing.

It's not an uncommon movie plot, after all -- kid overhears something, doesn't realize its import and/or can't get anyone to listen to them, and someone tries to off them despite their failure to communicate it to anyone. Martin's even used one version of it already -- Arya listening to Illyrio and Varys under the Red Keep. He's not a stranger to the concept.

All Littlefinger needs to do is get someone -- preferabbly Cat -- to KL. From there, the work gets very easy, in most cases.
Padraig
User ID: 1940534 		Apr 16th 12:09 PM
Ran, I find it a very strange idea because he is a 3 year old. How could something he saw or heard a couple of weeks before be a threat to the Lannisters? They might even have got away with Bran'a accusations although I doubt it, but I do not agree that a 3 year old could be a threat to them.

And it was Littlefinger that was rushing things along. Varys wanted everything to slow down. Without Catelyn's kidnapping of Tyrion, Littlefinger would have had far more time to convince Ned of his trusfulness and Lannister ruthlessness.

Oh you have a point that a knife could be "accidently" left behind but it wouldn't have played out as perfectly for Littlefinger as him been caught in the act. I find it to be just a little too lucky.
Ran
User ID: 0867924 		Apr 16th 12:27 PM
Littlefinger wanted to hurry it along because he didn't know when the ride would end -- he saw the situation, maybe understood some or most of why it was like that, but he probably had no good handle on when someone else (like Varys) would push the house of cards over. He wanted to get in when the getting was good.

And while you, as a reader, may feel that a three-year-old overhearing something is not worthy of killing him ... do you, as a mother of a dead/nearly dead child, take so casual an attitude? Do you just throw the knife away and shrug about it?

I don't buy it. No matter what happened, someone was coming down to KL, and suspicion would be planted by default. And given that Littlefinger guessed spot on about Cat coming down ... well. Is it any wonder that he completely hoodwinked Cat and Ned? He's _good_, and it's obvious he's a gambler.

They knew someone was hired. They knew they tried/managed to kill the boy. It's just stupid to assume that it was a senseless killing, and just as stupid to not try to find out more about it, no matter how fishy or odd it seems. With what Littlefinger told them, they took his bait hook, line, and sinker. He told a part of the truth, which made the lies all the easier to swallow down.
KAH
User ID: 0541004 		Apr 16th 2:52 PM
Well, Ran has said most of what is to be said about the question of motive, but I'll try to sum it up succinctly - which I probably will not manage, but when has that ever stopped me?


For Littlefinger's plan, motive would be seen as almost completely immaterial.

Think about this; if someone killed or tried to kill your son, what is the most likely thought to go through your head?

"Let's discuss this calmly and rationally, and try to figure out such things as motive, means, etc."

or

"Just find the swine, and kill him _dead_!"


Reactions would, for most grieveing parents, naturally tend to the last, and it speaks favorably of Catelyn that she even _now_ tries to wind up clues that didn't quite jive with
the 'Lannister dunnit' tune.

Even if Littlefinger expected the Starks to try playing detectives from 'Westeros Private Eye Inc.' instead of just being grieving parents (which he _did_), he could have quite some confidence that he could lead them safely onto the Lannister track with ease.


The assassin attempt doesn't make sense?

Perhaps not, but it _happened_, and no lack of apparent motive is going to change that.
Even if you cannot understand why someone would do such a thing, you _don't care_; you want to find the f*cker, and make him burn in hell.

If the Lannisters has no apparent motive, well, neither does anyone else, and fact remains that your son's wanna-be killer/crippler is walking out there with impunity.

So all Littlefinger has to do, is to give the Starks a valid pointer or five.

He doesn't have to explain 'why' - there is no love lost between the Starks and the Lannisters for a _reason_; the murder of Elia and her children can hardly be called a 'rational' act.
Also Cersei's murder of two babies, supposedly for her _honor_, is not like to convince the Starks that the Lannisters always do bad things for good reasons only.


Hell, IIRC Ned even suspected _Robert_ for a moment, and unlike others, I think Ned did him a grave injustice there.

Why should Littlefinger think that the Starks would care about the motive?
In fact, the only reason that Cat _has_ doubts, is for the unlikely event that she would get to interrogate the Imp and the Kingslayer, without them having the opportunity to speak with eachother first.

Littlefinger had a _major_ misfortune there - not something he could foresee - and it's not even sure that it will cause his downfall; not for a few books, at any rate.


As for the dagger issue, I have made my two coppers in the other thread - I'll just reiterate that I think the assassin being caught or killed probably was essential for Petyr's plan.
Claidhaim
User ID: 8590713 		Apr 17th 9:57 AM
Petyr had no real need to send an assassin after one of the Stark children. Prior to Robert's journey to Winterfell it was probably known that he was going to ask Ned to be his Hand. After all, wouldn't he have already asked Tywin if he was going to?

Littlefinger could have, and did, accelerate the tensions between Lion and Wolf by steering Ned towards all of Robert's bastards. He was the one that took Ned to see them. This led to the conversation in the Godswood between Ned and Cercie and the murder of Robert and the whole mess. It would have happened even if Bran hadn't have fallen.

Ned's arrival in King's Landing as Hand to the King would have suited Petyr's plans perfectly. The assasination attempt on Bran was just something to add to the plan, not the plan itself.
KAH
User ID: 0541004 		Apr 17th 10:26 AM
That's a pretty good point, Padraig.

However, Catelyn would certainly never have come to KL had it not been for the assassination attempt, and then Petyr might not have been able to convince Ned to trust him.
KAH
User ID: 0541004 		Apr 17th 10:30 AM
I meant _Claidhaim_, not Padraig.
Jeff
User ID: 1536664 		Apr 17th 10:57 AM
I also think Claidhaim's point is a very good one. To take it a bit further, isn't there at least a chance that the murder of a Stark child might have forced Ned to stay in Winterfell, particularly if Catelyn completely cracked up? Maybe Ned at least returns to KL for a temporary period to get things in order. Had that happened, Littlefinger's plans are doomed. Just getting Ned to come to KL was such a fortuitous event for Littlefinger that you'd have to wonder if he'd do anything that could possibly screw it up. It obviously didn't turn out that way, but even Littlefinger knows that you cannot always predict people's reactions with certainty.

Ran
User ID: 0867924 		Apr 17th 11:17 AM
Ned's already more than a week gone from Winterfell. If a child is murdered ... well, I don't think Catelyn would crack up.

It's one thing for her to blame herself for the accident to Bran, because she was praying so hard that Ned would let him stay. And, of course, Bran is her favorite child, her special child -- she loves them all, but not so much as she loves Bran.

On the other, it's quite another to have her littlest child obviously killed in cold blood. Once she decided that Bran's fall was no accident, but something done to him, she moved. I certainly think she'd do the same with an attempt (successful or otherwise) on Rickon's life.

She would have no doubts as to what happened to Rickon, so I can't see her going on a huge grief kick. She'd probably rush out of Winterfell like an avenging angel to find out who sent the knife -- and, for all the reasons we've discussed for why she didn't go straight to Ned or send him some warning, these would hold just as strongly.

Ned's decision to stay in King's Landing to find proof of who sent the knife after Bran would hold just as well with Rickon, dead or alive, anyhow. Maybe even more so.

I don't think Littlefinger seriously thought he could gain any real prize if he didn't get in on things early. Without giving Ned a reason to trust him, like as not their contact through the small council would simply drive Ned further away. He needed something binding, and quick.

At the very worst, if Ned leaves KL and heads back to Winterfell, Littlefinger's gained nothing -- or perhaps he's gained time, presuming that the situation won't come to a boil until Ned is ensconed in KL and mired in the conspiracies.
Claidhaim
User ID: 8590713 		Apr 17th 11:24 AM
Ran, what is Petyr after with this conspiracy? Is it to get the Lannister's and Stark's after one another? Or is he trying to punish Cat for marrying Ned?
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