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A Song of Ice and Fire / A Song of Ice and Fire / Military Matters II

Next 20 Messages

labor
User ID: 0798784 May 14th 10:19 AM
I'd just like to reproduce a most interesting post from the soc.history.medieval (autho Davis Read):
------------------------------------------------------
John Haldon undertakes a pretty good analysis of Byzantine march rates in his book _Warfare, State and Society in the Byzantine World 565-1204_ UCL, 1999. A couple of key sentences:-

"The speed at which large forces can move varies considerably... anything from 7 or 8 miles per day to 18 or 20. Unaccompanied cavalry can achieve distances of up to 40 or 50 miles per day provided that the horses are regularly fed and watered. Similarly, small units can move much faster than large divisions: distances of up to 30 miles per day for infantry have been recorded from different pre-modern historical contexts....

In most conditions, the average length of a day's march for infantry or combined forces was probably rarely more than 12-14 miles, which has been the average for most infantry forces throughout recorded history, and this figure would more often than not be reduced where large numbers of troops, particularly including infantry, were involved.
The average can be increased when no accompanying baggage train is present: thus Roman legionary troops of the first century AD, carrying most of their immediate requirements in equipment and provisions, were supposed to maintain a rate of 20 Roman miles in five hours (18.4 miles), on
metalled roads and in good weather." pp164-5
--------------------------------------------------------

Of course, Stannis's troops (especially the van) would fit very well the description of "unaccompanied cavalry" and it was IIRC mentioned that they had pretty little in the way of the baggage train (Renly having brought none to Storm's End).
Tywin's Lannister troops, OTOH would fit the term "combined forces"... with all logical implications.

Ran
User ID: 0867924 May 14th 11:39 AM
I am not, of course, quite certain of the meaning of this. I presume it's making a case for the feint theory.

We know that Stannis's van was at KL well before the rest of the forces. We know that Stannis's larger force was slowed somewhat by the clansmen in the kingswood. We know that it took awhile for the ship to sail from Storm's End, and they were delayed by at least one storm which scattered the fleet to some degree.

I don't think it is entirely impossible that Tywin was present at the Red Fork and never intended a feint. Stannis took an inordinate amount of time to move everything into place, probably wanting to consolidate his hold on Storm's End and any rebels in the stormlands and also making sure that his fleet was well-supplied and organized for the seaborne assault.

In any case, for my part, I do myself think that he split his forces.

Brady
User ID: 0721754 May 14th 11:44 PM
Edmure says in his letter to Cat that the Lannister forces are retreating southeast, which is toward Kings Landing, but he thinks its a feint to draw his forces out. Also, Addam Marbrand was one of the lords trying to cross the Trident, then he is later present at the Battle of Kings Landing.
I think this means that the attempted crossing of the Trident was not a feint. If it was, Tywin probably would have divided his forces, and sent one to attack the Trident and screen his march. It seems that after the Lannister forces were driven back, Tywin turned toward Kings Landing, perhaps after striking a deal with roose Bolton.

I, Claudius
User ID: 0505634 May 15th 5:57 AM
Tywin Lannister was retreating on his own supply lines, that played in his advantatge. Lannister forces wasn't so burdened by their provisions because they could count on having them in the various posts and depots along his line of march. Without that "impedimenta" they were able to move very quickly.

Stannis hadn't that advantage, he was moving in "enemy land" (the clansmen saw about this), for this reason he was forced to move slowly. He also had to coordinate with his navy, something that made things even more difficult.

Renly was the one that made the greatest mistake because he found himself advancing in friendly territory, he had plenty of provisions for his troops waiting for him in most of his line of advance. I assume that Tywin had provisions on his line of retreat (something that one could expect from the veteran leader he was) but Renly had this in his advance, only that he wasted this advantage marching so slowly.

KAH
User ID: 0541004 May 15th 6:25 AM
How much do these armies rely on depots and supply lines, really?

We've heard precious little of depots, and only once or twice about supply lines.
In contrast, we often hear about 'baggage train' (or whatever it was called) and foraging. I don't know how plausible that is, of course...

labor
User ID: 0798784 May 15th 6:43 AM
One also would have thought that with Bolton taking Harrenhal, Lannister supply lines would be cut. Also, IIRC depots weren't part of medieval warfare.
I also wouldn't name the territory of the River domain the Lannisters had to cross before they entered the lands sworn to KL as "friendly". I mean, "Berric Dondarrion" et al. were as hard at work as the wildlings at Stannis's force.

As to Marbrand making it back to KL in time - well the excerpt above says that cavalry could make it in half the time of the small swift band of infantry. I wouldn't name Tywin's at least 10K of infantry a small band, thus it wouldn't be very swift either.

Also, if it would be easy to jaunt from the Red Fork to KL, how the heck didn't an experienced commander such as Stannis expect such a developement?

Ser Benjen
User ID: 2122084 May 15th 7:06 AM
As far as the tactics that Tywin used on the Red Fork. I don't think it was a feint, at first. Tywin was hoping to draw Robb out by waiting at Harrenhal. That didn't happen, and Robb was striking deep into the West, Tywin had to do something. The attack on the Red Fork was an honest attempt to make a crossing, but then, seeing the toll that the crossing would take on his forces, and perhaps after receiving word from KL or Bitterbridge of Stannis' intentions, it became a screening manuever. To keep Edmure off his back while his troops arranged themselves to march to KL. Hence the major push by Gregor Clegane at the end that fight. I don't think Gregor was at the Battle of the Blackwater (perhaps due to the injuries he took at Stone Mill, IIRC).

Ran
User ID: 8165573 May 15th 7:40 AM
I'm roughly with Benjen, at least when it comes to Clegane. Marbrand made it because he probably wasn't injured -- or not so much as to matter -- but the Mountain took a dozen wounds and couldn't have made best time.

In general, my view is that the very initial probing of the Red Fork decided Tywin that chances were too high that he wouldn't win across. However, rather than just turn around, he detached most of his cavalry to make a try for it to screen his foot as they marched back to the southeast on the double.

Jeff
User ID: 1536664 May 15th 11:58 AM
I think John Keegan wrote a book awhile back called "A Soldier's Load and the Mobility 0f a Nation", or something like that. Anyway, I recall the general conclusion was that, throughout history, infantry generally have managed about 20 miles/day over extended periods.

Brady
User ID: 0721754 May 15th 8:06 PM
Exceptional infantry, like Alexander the Greats Macedonians could manage about 30, but they were superbly trained veterans following a beloved leader.
No infantry in Westeros could equal this, theyre mainly levies of commoners with little dicipline, so between 10 -20 miles a day would be about right.
Marbrand is the captain of the Lannister scouts and outriders, so he and his men could probably move quite fast. As too Roose Bolton taking Harrenhal and cutting off Lannister supply lines, this is true, IF Bolton hasnt made a deal with the Lannisters through Vargo Hoat to betray Robb, which I believe he has.

Ran
User ID: 0867924 May 16th 5:19 AM
Alexander's whole army never pulled much beyond 20 miles a day, and usually hovered in the 12-15 mile per day range. On a couple of occassions, though, such as from Rhagae to Airankief, a mostly-mounted force with only a small amount of foot forces, could pull over 30 miles. (Figues from Engels' _Alexander the Great and the Logistics of the Macedonian Army_)

Given that, I could see someone with a mostly-mounted force, such as Robb, pulling out a thirty+ mile day forced march at need. It depends on who the foot are -- sellswords, blooded experienced levies, ... ? Who knows.

Jeff
User ID: 1536664 May 16th 8:22 AM
It is possible to sustain more than 20/miles day for a limited period. Heck, I remember doing 3 days of 25 miles/day, fully loaded. Couldn't have gone for many more days because we were having too many people drop out, but we did do it.

During the Shenandoah Campaign in the U.S. Civil War, Stonewall Jackson's infamous "foot cavalry" covered more than 40 miles a day on several occasions. Again, that was not for an extended period, just a single day or so.

MILEN
User ID: 0882114 May 19th 2:00 PM
Will Tywin lead the army in the field, or will he stay at KL? If he does stay at KL, does he have someone to lead the army, who is both competent and loyal to him? I know Randyll Tarley has been mentioned, but he is essentially a Tyrell man. Would Tywin feel comfortable letting him lead the army in the field?

Ran
User ID: 0867924 May 19th 2:10 PM
When Tywin goes out after Robb, yeah, I see him handling the army. But smaller things, like sending the Redwynes after Stannis on Dragonstone and sending a small force to deal with the men Roose Bolton tricked into marching towards Duskendale, I could see him delegating.

He's the Hand of the King, first and foremost, and I don't see him leaving KL for a fair while. There's no serious threats.

Brady
User ID: 0721754 May 19th 9:19 PM
He probably expects Robb to march North, and is waiting for him to do so. Now that the Reach, the Stormlands and dorne are with him, he can bide his time.
If hes smart (and he is) he will keep a close eye on the Tyrrells, and he might decide to finish off Stannis, and deal with Beric Dondarrion. Basically, I think he'll make sure everything else is secure before going after Robb.
New question, where do you think Stannis has gone?
I think he has marched back to Storms End. He has defended it from siege before, it is his ancestral seat, and it now is his only beach head on mainland Westeros. I also noted that Storms End was not given to any other lord, nor was anyone named Lord Paramount of the Storm lands.
Dragonstone is another possibility, bit I just have this feeling he has retreated to Storms End

Werther
User ID: 8910463 May 19th 11:15 PM
Thats what I think to Brady. Stannis whined to anyone who would listen that he was dishonored by Robert (being sent to Dragonstone, not being named Hand and not being given Storms End). He'll hold on to Storms End til the end. Tywin will deal with him before he goes after Robb.

Lord Fool
User ID: 9607473 May 19th 11:29 PM
well i guess that makes sense cause Stroms end is the Barathons Home sand he is the last Barathon.that would make Dragonstone an easy target for Dany which has been mention is\n other threads.

labor
User ID: 0798784 May 20th 5:22 AM
OTOH Melisandre is on Dragonstone. And she is Stannis's only hope in the moment. Perhaps he'll want to send one of his shadows after Tywin?

KAH
User ID: 0541004 May 20th 6:30 AM
Moreover, it could well be that Stannis finds Storm's End closed to him. I do not recall who he left in charge there, but I don't think there's many he can trust anymore.
Davos and a few of the more fervent Lord of the Light adherents, mayhaps, but the others will be too busy defecting to the other side.

MILEN
User ID: 0882114 May 20th 8:19 AM
Stannis will probably go wherever he can find the most support. But, I'm not sure he will want to get bottled up in another seige without any allies to relieve him.

Next 20 Messages

labor User ID: 0798784	May 14th 10:19 AM I'd just like to reproduce a most interesting post from the soc.history.medieval (autho Davis Read): ------------------------------------------------------ John Haldon undertakes a pretty good analysis of Byzantine march rates in his book _Warfare, State and Society in the Byzantine World 565-1204_ UCL, 1999. A couple of key sentences:- "The speed at which large forces can move varies considerably... anything from 7 or 8 miles per day to 18 or 20. Unaccompanied cavalry can achieve distances of up to 40 or 50 miles per day provided that the horses are regularly fed and watered. Similarly, small units can move much faster than large divisions: distances of up to 30 miles per day for infantry have been recorded from different pre-modern historical contexts.... In most conditions, the average length of a day's march for infantry or combined forces was probably rarely more than 12-14 miles, which has been the average for most infantry forces throughout recorded history, and this figure would more often than not be reduced where large numbers of troops, particularly including infantry, were involved. The average can be increased when no accompanying baggage train is present: thus Roman legionary troops of the first century AD, carrying most of their immediate requirements in equipment and provisions, were supposed to maintain a rate of 20 Roman miles in five hours (18.4 miles), on metalled roads and in good weather." pp164-5 -------------------------------------------------------- Of course, Stannis's troops (especially the van) would fit very well the description of "unaccompanied cavalry" and it was IIRC mentioned that they had pretty little in the way of the baggage train (Renly having brought none to Storm's End). Tywin's Lannister troops, OTOH would fit the term "combined forces"... with all logical implications.
Ran User ID: 0867924	May 14th 11:39 AM I am not, of course, quite certain of the meaning of this. I presume it's making a case for the feint theory. We know that Stannis's van was at KL well before the rest of the forces. We know that Stannis's larger force was slowed somewhat by the clansmen in the kingswood. We know that it took awhile for the ship to sail from Storm's End, and they were delayed by at least one storm which scattered the fleet to some degree. I don't think it is entirely impossible that Tywin was present at the Red Fork and never intended a feint. Stannis took an inordinate amount of time to move everything into place, probably wanting to consolidate his hold on Storm's End and any rebels in the stormlands and also making sure that his fleet was well-supplied and organized for the seaborne assault. In any case, for my part, I do myself think that he split his forces.
Brady User ID: 0721754	May 14th 11:44 PM Edmure says in his letter to Cat that the Lannister forces are retreating southeast, which is toward Kings Landing, but he thinks its a feint to draw his forces out. Also, Addam Marbrand was one of the lords trying to cross the Trident, then he is later present at the Battle of Kings Landing. I think this means that the attempted crossing of the Trident was not a feint. If it was, Tywin probably would have divided his forces, and sent one to attack the Trident and screen his march. It seems that after the Lannister forces were driven back, Tywin turned toward Kings Landing, perhaps after striking a deal with roose Bolton.
I, Claudius User ID: 0505634	May 15th 5:57 AM Tywin Lannister was retreating on his own supply lines, that played in his advantatge. Lannister forces wasn't so burdened by their provisions because they could count on having them in the various posts and depots along his line of march. Without that "impedimenta" they were able to move very quickly. Stannis hadn't that advantage, he was moving in "enemy land" (the clansmen saw about this), for this reason he was forced to move slowly. He also had to coordinate with his navy, something that made things even more difficult. Renly was the one that made the greatest mistake because he found himself advancing in friendly territory, he had plenty of provisions for his troops waiting for him in most of his line of advance. I assume that Tywin had provisions on his line of retreat (something that one could expect from the veteran leader he was) but Renly had this in his advance, only that he wasted this advantage marching so slowly.
KAH User ID: 0541004	May 15th 6:25 AM How much do these armies rely on depots and supply lines, really? We've heard precious little of depots, and only once or twice about supply lines. In contrast, we often hear about 'baggage train' (or whatever it was called) and foraging. I don't know how plausible that is, of course...
labor User ID: 0798784	May 15th 6:43 AM One also would have thought that with Bolton taking Harrenhal, Lannister supply lines would be cut. Also, IIRC depots weren't part of medieval warfare. I also wouldn't name the territory of the River domain the Lannisters had to cross before they entered the lands sworn to KL as "friendly". I mean, "Berric Dondarrion" et al. were as hard at work as the wildlings at Stannis's force. As to Marbrand making it back to KL in time - well the excerpt above says that cavalry could make it in half the time of the small swift band of infantry. I wouldn't name Tywin's at least 10K of infantry a small band, thus it wouldn't be very swift either. Also, if it would be easy to jaunt from the Red Fork to KL, how the heck didn't an experienced commander such as Stannis expect such a developement?
Ser Benjen User ID: 2122084	May 15th 7:06 AM As far as the tactics that Tywin used on the Red Fork. I don't think it was a feint, at first. Tywin was hoping to draw Robb out by waiting at Harrenhal. That didn't happen, and Robb was striking deep into the West, Tywin had to do something. The attack on the Red Fork was an honest attempt to make a crossing, but then, seeing the toll that the crossing would take on his forces, and perhaps after receiving word from KL or Bitterbridge of Stannis' intentions, it became a screening manuever. To keep Edmure off his back while his troops arranged themselves to march to KL. Hence the major push by Gregor Clegane at the end that fight. I don't think Gregor was at the Battle of the Blackwater (perhaps due to the injuries he took at Stone Mill, IIRC).
Ran User ID: 8165573	May 15th 7:40 AM I'm roughly with Benjen, at least when it comes to Clegane. Marbrand made it because he probably wasn't injured -- or not so much as to matter -- but the Mountain took a dozen wounds and couldn't have made best time. In general, my view is that the very initial probing of the Red Fork decided Tywin that chances were too high that he wouldn't win across. However, rather than just turn around, he detached most of his cavalry to make a try for it to screen his foot as they marched back to the southeast on the double.
Jeff User ID: 1536664	May 15th 11:58 AM I think John Keegan wrote a book awhile back called "A Soldier's Load and the Mobility 0f a Nation", or something like that. Anyway, I recall the general conclusion was that, throughout history, infantry generally have managed about 20 miles/day over extended periods.
Brady User ID: 0721754	May 15th 8:06 PM Exceptional infantry, like Alexander the Greats Macedonians could manage about 30, but they were superbly trained veterans following a beloved leader. No infantry in Westeros could equal this, theyre mainly levies of commoners with little dicipline, so between 10 -20 miles a day would be about right. Marbrand is the captain of the Lannister scouts and outriders, so he and his men could probably move quite fast. As too Roose Bolton taking Harrenhal and cutting off Lannister supply lines, this is true, IF Bolton hasnt made a deal with the Lannisters through Vargo Hoat to betray Robb, which I believe he has.
Ran User ID: 0867924	May 16th 5:19 AM Alexander's whole army never pulled much beyond 20 miles a day, and usually hovered in the 12-15 mile per day range. On a couple of occassions, though, such as from Rhagae to Airankief, a mostly-mounted force with only a small amount of foot forces, could pull over 30 miles. (Figues from Engels' _Alexander the Great and the Logistics of the Macedonian Army_) Given that, I could see someone with a mostly-mounted force, such as Robb, pulling out a thirty+ mile day forced march at need. It depends on who the foot are -- sellswords, blooded experienced levies, ... ? Who knows.
Jeff User ID: 1536664	May 16th 8:22 AM It is possible to sustain more than 20/miles day for a limited period. Heck, I remember doing 3 days of 25 miles/day, fully loaded. Couldn't have gone for many more days because we were having too many people drop out, but we did do it. During the Shenandoah Campaign in the U.S. Civil War, Stonewall Jackson's infamous "foot cavalry" covered more than 40 miles a day on several occasions. Again, that was not for an extended period, just a single day or so.
MILEN User ID: 0882114	May 19th 2:00 PM Will Tywin lead the army in the field, or will he stay at KL? If he does stay at KL, does he have someone to lead the army, who is both competent and loyal to him? I know Randyll Tarley has been mentioned, but he is essentially a Tyrell man. Would Tywin feel comfortable letting him lead the army in the field?
Ran User ID: 0867924	May 19th 2:10 PM When Tywin goes out after Robb, yeah, I see him handling the army. But smaller things, like sending the Redwynes after Stannis on Dragonstone and sending a small force to deal with the men Roose Bolton tricked into marching towards Duskendale, I could see him delegating. He's the Hand of the King, first and foremost, and I don't see him leaving KL for a fair while. There's no serious threats.
Brady User ID: 0721754	May 19th 9:19 PM He probably expects Robb to march North, and is waiting for him to do so. Now that the Reach, the Stormlands and dorne are with him, he can bide his time. If hes smart (and he is) he will keep a close eye on the Tyrrells, and he might decide to finish off Stannis, and deal with Beric Dondarrion. Basically, I think he'll make sure everything else is secure before going after Robb. New question, where do you think Stannis has gone? I think he has marched back to Storms End. He has defended it from siege before, it is his ancestral seat, and it now is his only beach head on mainland Westeros. I also noted that Storms End was not given to any other lord, nor was anyone named Lord Paramount of the Storm lands. Dragonstone is another possibility, bit I just have this feeling he has retreated to Storms End
Werther User ID: 8910463	May 19th 11:15 PM Thats what I think to Brady. Stannis whined to anyone who would listen that he was dishonored by Robert (being sent to Dragonstone, not being named Hand and not being given Storms End). He'll hold on to Storms End til the end. Tywin will deal with him before he goes after Robb.
Lord Fool User ID: 9607473	May 19th 11:29 PM well i guess that makes sense cause Stroms end is the Barathons Home sand he is the last Barathon.that would make Dragonstone an easy target for Dany which has been mention is\n other threads.
labor User ID: 0798784	May 20th 5:22 AM OTOH Melisandre is on Dragonstone. And she is Stannis's only hope in the moment. Perhaps he'll want to send one of his shadows after Tywin?
KAH User ID: 0541004	May 20th 6:30 AM Moreover, it could well be that Stannis finds Storm's End closed to him. I do not recall who he left in charge there, but I don't think there's many he can trust anymore. Davos and a few of the more fervent Lord of the Light adherents, mayhaps, but the others will be too busy defecting to the other side.
MILEN User ID: 0882114	May 20th 8:19 AM Stannis will probably go wherever he can find the most support. But, I'm not sure he will want to get bottled up in another seige without any allies to relieve him.