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The Associated Press reported that this year the DPRK faces the prospect of their coldest, hungriest winter in years. The US and its allies have stopped supplying fuel oil ever since the DPRK revealed that it has been running a secret nuclear program in violation of a 1994 accord with the US. And the World Food Program said it will not be able to reach 2.9 million vulnerable DPRK citizens - barring immediate contributions from major donors such as the US and Japan, which are increasingly unhappy about helping the recalcitrant DPRK regime. The immediate victims will be the DPRK's children and elderly - including 760,000 children in nurseries - who depend on outside relief, says the WFP, the Rome-based UN relief agency that coordinates aid shipments to the DPRK. The DPRK's per capita income amounted to $706 last year, one-thirteenth of South Korea's $8,900, the office said. South Korea, a global trading power, reported $291.5 billion in trade last year, 128 times the estimated trade volume of the North's $2.27 billion. (Sang-Hun Choe, "NORTH KOREANS FACE COLD, HUNGRY WINTER," Seoul, 12/27/02)
The Associated Press reported that the DPRK ordered the expulsion Friday of UN nuclear inspectors and announced it will reactivate a laboratory able to produce weapons-grade plutonium. The UN nuclear agency said its investigators were "staying put" for now. The dramatic moves are certain to escalate tensions over the DPRK's plan to unfreeze nuclear facilities shut down in a deal with the United States in 1994. The inspectors were the last means that the International Atomic Energy Agency had to monitor whether the facilities are being used for nuclear weapons projects. Despite IAEA warnings, the North removed monitoring seals and surveillance cameras from the nuclear complex at Yongbyon earlier this week. The DPRK sent letters to Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the Vienna-based IAEA, demanding the removal of the inspectors and announcing the reopening of the reprocessing lab, the Korean Central News Agency said Friday.
The UN nuclear watchdog resisted the demand. "At the moment, our inspectors are staying put. They are on standby," IAEA spokeswoman Melissa Fleming said. The IAEA currently has three inspectors in DPRK. ElBaradei sent a response to DPRK's atomic energy chief, Ri Je Son, demanding the DPRK allow the inspectors to remain and install new seals and surveillance cameras at the site. "The departure of inspectors would practically bring an end to our ability to monitor (North Korea's) nuclear program or assess its nature. This is one further step away from defusing the crisis," ElBaradei said in a statement. The DPRK is one of the more than 185 signatories to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which took effect in 1970. The DPRK joined in 1985 but refused to accept IAEA inspections of its nuclear facilities as required by the treaty. The IAEA says the DPRK is still a treaty member and must accept its inspections, but the DPRK says its signatory status depends on its 1994 nuclear deal with Washington. The IAEA said the DPRK was moving fresh fuel cells into the 5-kilowatt reactor at Yongbyon. By Friday, about 2,000 new rods had been moved to a storage facility at the site, up from 1,000 a day earlier, spokeswoman Fleming said. The reactor needs 8,000 rods to be started, Fleming said. (Paul Shin, "N. KOREA DEMANDS NUCLEAR INSPECTORS LEAVE," Seoul, 12/27/02)
Reuters reported that the DPRK's state news agency said Friday that the US was rushing toward conflict with the DPRK by demanding that it scrap its nuclear program before dialogue could begin. The official Korean Central News Agency said remarks by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and other officials showed the US was keen "topple" DPRK rather than hold discussions to defuse the nuclear row. "(The United States) is rushing headlong into extremely dangerous confrontation with the DPRK (North Korea), saying that it would neither have dialogue with the DPRK nor rule out a war against it," KCNA said. "The US much publicized assertion that North Korea should scrap its nuclear program first is nothing but a pipe-dream as it calls for disarming the DPRK under the absurd pretext of its 'nuclear program' and then launching a surprise attack on it to overthrow its political system," it said. Rumsfeld said earlier this week that the US which is focusing on ridding Iraq of weapons of mass destruction, could fight two wars at once and win and DPRK would be mistaken to assume Washington was distracted by the standoff with Baghdad. ("N.KOREA SAYS US HEADING FOR CONFRONTATION," Seoul, 12/27/02)
The Associated Press reported that the UN nuclear watchdog agency said on Wednesday that the DPRK had moved fresh fuel to a reactor which the US says must stay mothballed because it can be used to produce plutonium for nuclear weapons. The announcement by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) heightens a tense international confrontation that has followed the breakdown of an eight-year-old agreement restricting the DPRK's nuclear program. The DPRK's defense minister on Tuesday accused Washington of pushing the Korean peninsula to the brink of nuclear war. "We had noticed yesterday that they were carrying out work at the five megawatt reactor in Yongbyon," IAEA spokesman Mark Gwozdecky told Reuters. "And we noticed that they were moving fresh fuel to the reactor."
He added that North Korean technicians had broken most of the seals and disabled UN surveillance devices at all four nuclear facilities at Yongbyon. The cameras had been monitoring the DPRK's compliance with a 1994 shutdown of the plants. "North Korea estimates that (the five megawatt reactor) could be up and running in one to two months," he said, adding that the UN agency believed it would take longer. The IAEA is also worried about the plutonium storage and reprocessing facilities at the Yongbyon complex. A storage pond there holds some 8,000 spent irradiated fuel rods which contain large amounts of plutonium. "The reprocessing plant could have absolutely no civilian use for North Korea," Gwozdecky said. But he said no work was being done at the plant, capable of separating plutonium from other substances in the spent fuel. (Paul Shin, "NORTH KOREA BEGINS MOVING FUEL RODS INTO NUCLEAR REACTOR," Seoul, 12/26/02) and Reuters (Louis Charbonneau, "N.KOREA MOVING FRESH FUEL TO NUCLEAR PLANT," Vienna, 12/25/02)
The New York Times reported that the DPRK warned today of an "uncontrollable catastrophe" unless the US agrees to a negotiated solution to a tense standoff over its nuclear energy and weapons programs. The statement, made amid mounting tensions with the US, came as a stiff pre-emptive rebuff to a conciliation-minded newly elected president in the ROK, and a warning to other countries that their efforts to mediate the crisis will be futile. "There is no need for any third party to meddle in the nuclear issue on the peninsula," said the DPRK's ruling-party newspaper, the Rodong Sinmun. "The issue should be settled between the DPRK and the US, the parties responsible for it.
If the US persistently tries to internationalize the pending issue between the DPRK and the US in a bid to flee from its responsibility, it will push the situation to an uncontrollable catastrophe." The DPRK defense minister, Kim Il Chol, went further, warning of "merciless punishment" to the US if it pursued a confrontational approach to the emerging nuclear crisis. "The US hawks are arrogant enough to groundlessly claim that the DPRK has pushed ahead with a 'nuclear program,' bringing its hostile policy toward the DPRK to an extremely dangerous phase," the state-run Korean Central News Agency quoted Kim as saying. (Howard W. French, "US GETS WARNING FROM NORTH KOREA," Seoul, 12/25/02)
The Associated Press reported that the DPRK issued a fiery warning that US policy was leading the region to the "brink of nuclear war" and took steps toward restarting reactors that the US fears could be used to make nuclear weapons. Though there were no new activities at the reprocessing lab or the fuel rod factory early Wednesday, the ROK news agency Yonhap said "North Koreans are freely moving in and out of the unsealed nuclear reactor." US officials said they suspected the DPRK was trying to goad the US back to the negotiating table after President George W. Bush cut off oil shipments to the energy-starved nation. US officials have demanded the DPRK immediately end its atomic weapons program.
The DPRK's defense minister, Kim Il Chol, said in a report on the Korean Central News Agency, that "US hawks" were "pushing the situation on the Korean Peninsula to the brink of a nuclear war." Alarming US officials, the DPRK has swiftly taken steps toward a possible reactivation of nuclear facilities that experts believe were used to make one or two weapons in the 1990s. The DPRK will need "a month or two" to make their Soviet-designed, 5-megawatt reactor at Yongbyon operational, said Mark Gwozdecky, chief spokesman at the UN International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna. Quoting an unidentified government official, Yonhap said Wednesday the IAEA had increased the number of its inspectors at the DPRK facilities from two to three. The report could not be immediately confirmed.
On Tuesday, the DPRK removed UN seals and surveillance cameras from a fourth nuclear facility, including a reprocessing facility that produces weapons-grade plutonium. The move disturbed US officials who say the DPRK has no use for plutonium other than trying to build a nuclear bomb. There are 8,000 spent fuel rods at the facility, enough to make several atomic bombs within months. Gwozdecky said it did not appear that the DPRK had removed any rods from the facility. (Christopher Torchia, "NORTH KOREA SAYS US PUSHING REGION TOWARD NUCLEAR WAR AS DISPUTE HEATS UP," Seoul, 12/25/02)
The Associated Press reported that the DPRK has let a UN watchdog agency send more inspectors to its nuclear facilities, even as communist engineers move freely around a reactor in violation of arms control agreements, officials in the ROK said Wednesday. The DPRK's willingness to publicly flout its international commitments suggests it is trying to force itself onto the US' agenda to win an oft-stated goal: talks with its longtime foe about a non-aggression treaty. Possibly as part of that strategy, the DPRK has stepped up its anti-American rhetoric in recent days, warning that US policy was leading the region to the "brink of nuclear war." The Bush administration, however, has rejected negotiations with the DPRK unless it abandons nuclear activities and says the DPRK's moves to reactivate the nuclear reactor at Yongbyon amount to blackmail.
The standoff has raised fears of another nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula. The United Nations' International Atomic Energy Agency increased the number of inspectors at the Yongbyon reactor from two to three since the DPRK began removing UN seals and disabling surveillance cameras at facilities this week, ROK officials said. "The organization took the step to strengthen eye checks of nuclear facilities," Chon Young-woo, a Foreign Ministry official, was quoted as saying by The Korea Times, an ROK newspaper. An IAEA spokesman at the agency's headquarters in Vienna, Austria, could not be reached for comment. Chon said that the inspectors were conducting daily checks without interference from DPRK authorities. (Christopher Torchia, "N. KOREA ALLOWS MORE NUCLEAR INSPECTORS," Seoul, 12/25/02)
by Henry Sokolski, December 23, 2002
Now that North Korea has broken out of its moratorium on producing plutonium, admitted that it has been secretly enriching uranium for nuclear weapons and insisted that it has a right to possess them, the U.S. and its allies are faced with three security problems. First, they limit the instability Pyongyang's nuclear program might cause. Second, they must prevent North Korea's example from encouraging other countries from proliferating. Third, they must encourage the current North Korean government to become one that is willing to self-disarm.
This paper explains why. First, it reviews the history of North Korea's nuclear activities and repeated cheating on nonproliferation pledges it has made over the last 20 years. Second, it details how Pyongyang might increase its nuclear weapons capabilities and assesses the risks of trying to cut some new nuclear deal with Pyongyang as compared to bolstering several factors that are already constrained North Korea's nuclear activities...
by Leon V. Sigal, December 23, 2002
The revelation that North Korea is buying equipment useful for enriching uranium has led many in Washington to conclude that North Korea, like Iraq, is again making nuclear weapons and that the appropriate response is to punish it for brazenly breaking its commitments. Both the assessment and the policy that flows from it are wrong.
North Korea is no Iraq. It wants to improve relations with the United States and says it is ready to give up its nuclear, missile, and other weapons programs in return. Pyongyang's declared willingness to satisfy all U.S. security concerns is worth probing in direct talks. More coercive alternatives - economic sanctions and military force - are not viable without allied support. Yet the Bush administration, long aware of North Korea's ongoing nuclear and missile activities, has shown little interest in negotiating...
by Will B. Weaver, December 20, 2002
1. North Korea is completely involved in their own new economic developments and do not know that the rest of the world is unaware of their profound transformation. These changes are unprecedented in scope and are taking everyone to unknown levels of hopes for their country and personal developments.
2. Concurrently, North Korea is unaware of how at odds they are with the rest of the world. North Korea feels they have made it clear that they have chosen a new, different road for the future. Therefore, they find that the US is the sole obstruction to their own economic development and recent foreign political advancements...
by David S. Maxwell, December 20, 2002
The "revelation" that North Korea is engaged in a nuclear weapons development program seems to be well-timed. The fundamental question is why did the North Korean leadership admit to this now? When faced with "evidence" in the past the Kim Family Regime never felt bad about denying it.
Of course there are those who want to believe North Korea is changing; that it is capable of reform. The recent admission is certainly viewed by some as North Korea "coming clean" and working toward becoming a respectable member of the community of nations. This is certainly in line with those who believe that "peace is breaking out all over" and who use as evidence the attempt to re-open relations with Japan, the restart of family reunions, the admission it kidnapped foreigners to help train its spies, the rail linkage project between north and South and the clearing of mines from part of the DMZ. I do not believe that for a minute...
Joongang Ilbo reported that y December 20, 2002 an apparently official DPRK document obtained by a Japanese nongovernmental group describes domestic dissatisfactions over new economic reforms in the famine-stricken communist state, a Japanese newspaper said Thursday. The Japanese group Rescue the DPRK People Urgent Action Network identified the document as a confidential report by the publisher for DPRK's Workers Party. It was intended to encourage heads of companies and schools to promote the July economic reform, the Mainichi Shimbun reported. It admitted that criticisms of the economic reform have arisen and spread among the public. The document also frankly admitted the failure of DPRK's price control policy. "The price control policy, thus, was not implemented properly and had negative impacts on the DPRK economy." DPRK leader Kim Jong-il ordered economic reform measures in July that included wage and price increases and ending rationing of rice. (Oh Day-young, "COMPLAINTS IN NORTH ON REFORMS REPORTED," Tokyo, 12/20/02)
Chosun Ilbo reported that US Defense Intelligence Agency told the chairman of ROK's Joint Chiefs of Staff, Lee Nam-shin that DPRK had carried out more than 70 high-explosive tests related to its nuclear weapons development program since 1998, according to a government official Wednesday. The DIA briefed Lee concerning this on December 5, while he was in Washington to take part in the annual Security Consultative Meeting. There have been reports DPRK conducted 70 similar tests from 1983 to 1993 at its Yongbyun nuclear facility, and three to four experiments near Kusong in Pyongbuk Province. The DIA also told Lee, DPRK had already extracted 10-12kg of plutonium before the Geneva agreement was signed, and has apparently made two nuclear warheads that can be attached to missiles. It added DPRK has been constructing gas centrifuges since 2000, with equipment supplied by Pakistan, for uranium enrichment, which are expected to be completed by 2005, the source said. (Lee Kyo-kwan, "DIA: NORTH KOREA HAS TWO NUCLEAR WEAPONS," Seoul, 12/20/02)
Associated Press reported that the DPRK demanded on Thursday US compensation for last week's seizure of a ship carrying its Scud missiles to Yemen, criticizing the act as "reckless state-sponsored terrorism." The DPRK also claimed that a Spanish warship fired at its ship, and that US sailors looted the ship, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). "The US imperialists should apologize for their serious piracy committed against the ship and compensate for all the mental and material damage done to the ship and its crew," said the DPRK's official newspaper Rodong Sinmun, carried by KCNA in a separate dispatch. The report did not clarify what kind of compensation the DPRK wanted. ("NORTH KOREA DEMANDS US COMPENSATION FOR SEIZURE OF SHIP CARRYING MISSILES," Seoul, 12/19/02)
The Associated Press reported that President George W. Bush is less than eager to pick a fight with the DPRK over its nuclear weapons program, and not only because he wants to deal with Iraq first. Bush also may have been influenced in his thinking on North Korea by a conversation he had with ROK President Kim Dae-jung last February. According to sources familiar with their conversation, Bush was taken aback by Kim's account of the horrendous death and destruction that would result from another Korean War. Kim reportedly cited 1994 estimates by the US Joint Chiefs of Staff as the basis for his assessment. The potential American dead in such a conflict would not be limited to the 37,000 US servicemen in the ROK but also would include the tens of thousands of other Americans, most of whom live in the Seoul area, Bush was told. Seoul sits within easy range of DPRK artillery deployed just across the Demilitarized Zone.
War undoubtedly also would kill or displace hundreds of thousands from both sides, as did the first Korean War in 1950-53. Based on Kim's assessment, the sources said, Bush decided to include in his public statements on his subsequent visit to Seoul an assurance to the DPRK that the US has no intention of invading. Bush and top aides have been repeating that statement since the DPRK's disclosure that it is developing a uranium-based bomb and its subsequent announcement that it plans to revive a plutonium-producing nuclear reactor that has been idled under a 1994 US-North Korean agreement. "The United States has no plans to attack North Korea," Secretary of State Colin Powell said Monday, repeating almost verbatim what Bush had said on November 15. (George Gedda, "POSSIBLE HIGH CASUALTIES MUTES WAR TALK VERSUS NORTH KOREA," Washington, 12/18/02)
The Associated Press reported that the DPRK captain of a ship that was seized while transporting Scud missiles accused the US on Tuesday of damaging his vessel and "piracy." Kang Chol Ryong, the captain of the Singapore-registered Pan Hope, denied that he had hidden the Yemeni-bound missiles under sacks of cement, and said he had rebuffed the Spanish Navy's order to stop because it was "dishonorable." Captain Ryong spoke to reporters in this eastern Yemeni port an hour before his ship sailed away from Yemen, having unloaded its cargo of 15 Scud missiles and other military equipment. Ryong demanded an apology from Washington on Tuesday, adding "if the United States refuses, they will be condemned more strongly by the world's peace-loving people."
When a Spanish warship intercepted Pan Hope, it signaled that it should halt. But the Pan Hope continued sailing until the warship fired across its bows. Ryong said he flouted the initial order to stop because it was "dishonorable as we were sailing legally in the open sea." Spanish sharpshooters then fired at the Pan Hope's cables, breaking them so that a helicopter could hover over the ship and allow Marines to rappel down to its deck. "Five wire ropes, other materials and shackles were destroyed. Other rooms were very seriously damaged," Ryong said. "I never tried to hide the missiles," he added. "They were regularly stored under cover plates. It is not good to place them in the open."
The captain said 22 Spanish troops landed on the ship. "They bound and tied 18 of our sailors... After two days, our 18 Korean sailors were transferred to an American warship, while some soldiers were occupying our ship, searching (our) money and private things like cigarettes and even our ball-point pens," Ryong said. Ryong said a fleet of 49 warships, including an aircraft carrier, converged on his vessel. "I have 20 years experience of sailing, but I have never seen such a big deployment for such a small ship. This is clearly a very shameful act of piracy." (Ahmed Al-Haj, "NORTH KOREAN CAPTAIN OF MISSILE-CARRYING SHIP CONDEMNS SPANISH-AMERICAN 'PIRACY,'" Al-Mukalla, 12/17/02)
Joongang Ilbo reported that some 5,100 tons of rice aid for DPRK, destined to be loaded onto the 'Eastern Frontier' cargo ship, were unable to leave for their final destination on Monday when members of the Gyeongin Marine Transportation Union refused to be involved in the process, in line with a December 13 statement. Incheon Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Office said the rice will be sent from Gunsan in Jeonbuk Province. Currently rice mills in Seocheon, Chungnam Province are storing another 5,100 tons of government bought rice planned to be sent to DPRK as humanitarian assistance. Choi Man-je, a director of the union said he had received support calls nationwide and as long as there was the possibility that the assistance sent in good faith would be returned as "bombs and missiles," the union will refuse cooperation in assistance. Gunsan Marine Transportation Union plans to load the rice as soon as the 'Eastern Frontier' reaches Gunsan. (Park Don-ky, "UNION REFUSES TO LOAD NK RICE AID," Seoul, 12/17/02)
Chosun Ilbo reported that DPRK's Foreign Ministry spokesman said Monday, through the country's Central News Agency, that US and its followers were trying to use humanitarian assistance for political means. He said that although his government welcomed the assistance of international organizations and countries "without other plans on their minds," it would never accept assistance with political conditions. The spokesman said US was hindering international humanitarian assistance from reaching North Korea by "spreading rumors that the government is keeping the foreign food aid for just the army, and that the government engages in drug trafficking." "Japan and other US followers are also pressuring us by connecting humanitarian assistance with nuclear development and normalization issues," he said. (Kwon Kyung-bo, "NK SAYS US AID POLITICALLY TAINTED," Seoul, 12/17/02)
by staff reporter - Reuters, December 17, 2002
North Korea is stepping up anti-U.S. propaganda at middle and high schools nationwide as its fractious relationship with the United States threatens to break down completely over the issue of Pyeongyang's nuclear weapons program. "As the American imperialists scheme to squeeze North Korea to death, the curriculum at Kwanmun Senior High School in Pyeongyang teaches students the cunning and brutality of the U.S. and implants animosity against the United States in the minds of students," Radio Pyeongyang reported Tuesday. Ri Ung principal of the school introduced other "helpful" education programs like trips to Sinchon Museum in South Hwanghae province, well reputed for promoting anti-U.S. sentiment, and arranging for students to meet with old heroes and veterans of the Korean War who bravely fought against the Americans. Special sessions for students' speeches and war movies also help, he said.
"The school also has 376 photos to cultivate the anti-U.S. spirit," the news said. The Korean Central News Agency reported last Saturday article that youths are urged to remain true to Pyeongyang's army-first policy.
Referring to previous provincial meetings of young North Koreans to discuss politics and ideology, the news praised youngsters who "absolutely worship and trust their leaders" with "intense loyalty." "Many young people have volunteered to join the army, and rendered material and moral support to the army under the army-based leadership of the Workers' Party of Korea and sincerely helped war veterans and honored disabled soldiers," the news said. The article also used some intensive vocabularies to demonstrate the so-called utter loyalty by mentioning the spirit of becoming "human bombs" and of "blowing oneself up" to defend the totalitarian regime.
The Associated Press reported that the DPRK has deployed six heavy machine guns inside a border buffer zone with the ROK in violation of the armistice that ended the Korean War, the ROK military said Tuesday. The DPRK smuggled four 7.62-millimeter calibre machine guns into the Demilitarized Zone, or DMZ, on Friday and two more on Monday, said 1st Lt. Yoon Won-jae, a Defence Ministry spokesman. Yoon had said the guns were withdrawn, but he later said they were still there. "The North will be responsible for any unfavourable incident," the ROK said in protest letters that were delivered to the DPRK at the border village of Panmunjom on Monday. The ROK is awaiting the DPRK's response. ("SOUTH KOREA PROTESTS NORTH KOREAN DEPLOYMENT OF SIX MACHINE GUNS IN BUFFER ZONE," Seoul, 12/17/02)
By John Thornhill and Andrew Ward, Financial Times.Com, December 13 2002
Negotiating with North Korea is surely one of the world's trickiest diplomatic conundrums. How do you deal with a regime, headed by the quixotic Kim Jong-il, that seems to inhabit another planet, treats every negotiation as a zero-sum game and cheats on those few treaties it does sign? The traditional carrot-and-stick approach is of limited use in dealing with such an opportunist masochist; North Korea simply eats all the carrots while continuing to pick fights with bigger opponents.
But this baffling puzzle needs to be urgently reconsidered as relations between North Korea and the outside world plummet once again. Over recent months, North Korea has confirmed its reputation as the most roguish of rogue states. It has confessed to kidnapping dozens of Japanese civilians - including film-makers, teachers and actors - and to developing a programme to produce enriched uranium. It was also caught this week exporting Scud missiles to the Middle East.
On Thursday, events took an even more alarming turn when Pyongyang declared it would reactivate its frozen nuclear power programme in defiance of a deal, known as the Agreed Framework, signed with the US in 1994. If it goes ahead with this threat, Pyongyang would seriously escalate tensions on the Korean peninsula and could bring about a full-scale international crisis. But what is the most effective way of encouraging good behaviour from North Korea and deterring bad?...
During the cold war, strategists at the Rand Corporation employed game theory to analyse how the Soviet Union might react in any given situation and to formulate appropriate responses. But trying to forecast the behaviour of coldly calculating, chess-playing Russians was one thing. Attempting to predict the future actions of an impulsive and eccentric autocrat is quite another.
The only conclusion that every expert on North Korea agrees about is that Mr Kim's one overriding principle is to survive. Beyond that, it is difficult to guess what his motivations are, making it difficult for North Korea's neighbours to frame an appropriate policy.
South Korean officials argue furiously about whether the North Korean regime is clever and rational or stupid and mad. Some believe that North Korea's strategy is diplomatic genius. By precipitating a crisis when the US is preoccupied with Iraq, Pyongyang is calculating that Washington will not have the energy or inclination to deal with two rogue states at the same time.
Advocates of the "genius" argument refer to reports that Mr Kim, far from being naive about the outside world, is an astute observer of international relations, devouring information from the internet. Lim Dong-won, a special adviser to South Korea's president Kim Dae-jung, reported that the North Korean leader talked rationally and knowledgeably about South Korean politics when they met in Pyongyang in April. Mr Kim is bargaining that he can push the US to the cliff edge, safe in the knowledge that Washington could never risk millions of lives in north-east Asia by starting a war.
However, advocates of the "stupid" school of thought believe that Mr Kim does not grasp the difference between the Bush and Clinton administrations. He has also, they say, blundered by failing to embrace Seoul's "sunshine" policy of engagement. Rather than a study of international relations, they refer to reports of his heavy drinking, womanising and obsession with trashy films.
There is also the possibility that North Korea is being rationally irrational. Some strategists argue that the illusion of irrationality is a useful weapon in the diplomatic armoury. Thomas Schelling, a Harvard expert on game theory, argued in the 1960s that ambiguity could be a vital element of nuclear bargaining in some circumstances. "It is not a universal advantage in situations of conflict to be inalienably and manifestly rational in decision and motivation," he wrote. These views were echoed in a report produced in 1995 by the Pentagon's Strategic Command. "The fact that some elements [of the US government] may appear to be potentially 'out of control' can be
beneficial in creating and reinforcing fears and doubts within the minds of an adversary's decision-makers," it said.
Richard Nixon, former US president, even practised the infamous "Madman Theory" during the Paris peace talks with North Vietnam in the 1970s. In an attempt to scare the North Vietnamese into a deal, US negotiators hinted that Mr Nixon had gone mad and might authorise a nuclear strike on Hanoi. It is not known whether Mr Kim has drawn his inspiration from the wilder reaches of Nixonian diplomacy. But his actions suggest that he understands the Madman Theory well, extracting concessions by pushing events to the brink.
Aidan Foster-Carter, a Korea specialist at Leeds University, describes North Korea as "tactically astute but strategically dumb". In other words, it is capable of making rational choices within an irrational conceptual universe. Mr Foster-Carter compares the North Koreans with "mountain bandits" who prey on others. "They come down from the hills and fleece people and demand payment to go away. But as Marxists would say, this is not a mode of production that is self-sustaining," he says.
Over the past few years, North Korea has used this strategy to squeeze fuel and food aid and economic concessions from its neighbours. It has provided almost nothing in return, apart from promising it will not behave even more badly in future. The hardline Bush administration in the US has tired of this particular game and is now refusing to engage Pyongyang until there is a visible and verifiable end to North Korea's nuclear programme.
William Drennan, a security specialist at the United States Institute of Peace, says the Bush administration has concluded that further conciliation towards North Korea is counter- productive. "The events of the last two months prove that an appeasement strategy does not work with North Korea," he says. So far, Washington's policies towards North Korea appear restrained and multilateral in comparison with its aggressive approach towards disarming Iraq.
A pattern is emerging that suggests the US, aware that its doctrine of pre-emptive military action is unworkable against North Korea, has adopted an alternative but almost equally ruthless approach: economic sanctions designed to push the state towards collapse. Already, the United Nations has warned that 3m North Koreans will go unfed by its World Food Programme this winter because of a drop in international donations. This number could increase to 6m next year if more aid is not forthcoming.
Some US policymakers believe that forced state collapse would be the quickest and most peaceful way to disarm North Korea and free its 22m people from poverty and oppression. But the strategy is not guaranteed to succeed and would not be without risks even if it did. "At the end of the day there would be no North Korea," says Mr Foster-Carter. "The danger is that there would be no South Korea either."
That is a danger lawmakers in Seoul are all too aware of. They complain about the arrogance and insensitivity of US policymakers, who see North Korea through the prism of Washington's war against terror without considering the dangerous implications for South Korea and the region. "Critics of the sunshine policy accuse us from their offices in Washington of submitting to North Korea's bribery and buying peace," says one South Korean member of parliament. "But if they were sitting where I am, within striking distance of a North Korean missile, they might think differently."
The Associated Press reported that the DPRK accused the US of committing piracy and demanded compensation for seizing and detaining its cargo ship while on its way to Yemen carrying missiles. The DPRK admitted that the ship was transporting "missile components and some building materials to be delivered to Yemen" but said the shipment was under a legal contract. "This is an unpardonable piracy that wantonly encroached upon the sovereignty of the DPRK (North Korea)," a foreign ministry spokesman said in a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency. "The United States should apologize for its high-handed piracy committed against the DPRK's trading ship and duly compensate for all the mental and material damage done to the ship and its crew," he said. He also said it was "something very regretful and disappointing" that Spain, which has normal relations with the DPRK, "blindly acted a servant of the US pirate." ("NORTH KOREA CONDEMNS SEIZURE OF SHIP CARRYING SCUD MISSILES TO YEMEN," Seoul, 12/13/02) and the Agence France-Presse ("NORTH KOREA ATTACKS US FOR DETAINING SHIP CARRYING MISSILES," 12/13/02)
by Alejandro Cao de Benos de Les y Perez, 13th December 2002 (Juche 91)
Few months ago. A peaceful night in Pyongyang, ten friends inside the hotel room, after a busy and happy day of many activities, my North Korean comrades -some of them senior officials of the Korean People’s Army- and I had a small party with snacks. In the Korean Central TV a great film of heroes fighting Taekwondo to defeat the enemies. Then I raised a subject… let’s talk about the nuclear issue, the missiles and what do you think about the Agreed Framework.
We had one common thought: The nuclear weapons are weapons of mass destruction mainly designed for offensive means and we didn’t want to attack, but to defend the country from the US Empire; so considering that the orders of the ‘First Army Policy’ from the Supreme Commander Kim Jong Il are purely defensive we knew that was no need to focus the energy to work in this technology, although pointing that in case of attack more advanced and accurate weapons had to be used to make the White House regret of its actions.
The opinions were divided when talking about until which point the DPRK had to tolerate the pressure from the USA and stick to the Agreed framework, specially considering the delays in the construction of the first reactor and the intentions from the International Atomic Energy Agency of inspecting military non-nuclear related sites and out of the signed contract: some of my friends thought that the country had to wait and be more patient, while some of us wanted to continue the construction of the nuclear plants as soon as possible to revitalize the economy and provide energy to all the houses and factories. We thought that the hypocrite and arrogant Bush
administration will find ways to delay more the constructions of KEDO, and that the delay was a dirty trick to get all kind of concessions from our government.
After a while our hypothesis was confirmed, the Oil supply was stopped and the ‘anti-terrorist’ mask of the USA felt into pieces showing its real intention of stifle the DPRK sovereignty: The IAEA became the servant of the imperialist interests and acting not as an independent organization but as a pathetic puppet of the big boss, followed the arrogant steps of its master and immediately requested further inspections.
It’s time to answer!! the patience of the Korean people has a limit. The DPRK demonstrated its willingness to stop the nuclear power plants in exchange of peace, but the result was that the USA never fulfilled its promises. Finally, the government decided to resume the nuclear energy development demonstrating one of the basic principles of Juche: friendship will be answered with friendship, but a single aggression will be punished one hundred times.
Many news agencies and war maniacs in Washington are asking why the DPRK isn’t treated like Iraq, why the President Bush is using double standards? The answer is simple: Although their intelligence is really small it’s enough to know that in case of a US attack, the Korean People’s Army will wipe out the 40.000 American soldiers in the South in just one day, and that the latest missiles Nodong and Taepodong can turn the East Coast into ashes.
At the same time a DPRK cargo ship was seized by the Spanish Navy under the orders of the CIA. Another dog called ‘Satellite’ following his US owner in exchange of a dirty bone with burger flavour. This time both servant and master had to throw their faces in front of the public opinion. I can imagine how brave is the Navy stopping a DPRK civilian ship with unarmed crew, considering that the Spanish Army has many things to do first like cleaning the drug mafia that invades many of its battalions or stop the all-sort of abuses to the soldiers. The shameful mission performed by both the CIA and Spain is an act of piracy and intrusion. A violation of sovereignty and
interference in internal affairs that deserves a formal apologize and compensation.
The reader can see how the media manipulated the news to distort the real image of North Korea. As soon as the Spanish TV received the information they started saying that the missile shipment could be delivered to Al Qaeda, talking about illegal transport, chemical and biological weapons and other nonsense. This time the plan of the USA was to find an excuse to link the DPRK to the terrorism and have an excuse to invade it, but they failed. Once again.
Nothing and nobody will stop the spirit of the Korean flying horse Chollima. After the arduous march and several difficulties created by the nature, the DPRK looks to the bright future leaded by the Dear General, the future of a perfect society where the country will become a socialist superpower in all the spheres. (The author is a Special Delegate of the Committee for Cultural Relations with Foreign Countries –DPRK Government President of the Korean Friendship Association (KFA))
The Agence France-Presse reported that the DPRK brushed aside international warnings and forged ahead with a plan to revive a frozen nuclear program while accusing the US of piracy over the seizure of a missile shipment. Ratcheting up tensions a notch, the DPRK told inspectors from the international nuclear watchdog to remove cameras and seals that have kept its plutonium producing nuclear facilities mothballed for eight years. The demand in a letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) served to underline the DPRK's determination to abandon an arms pact that has helped guarantee security in the region since 1994.
The move was seen in the ROK as a desperate bid from a bankrupt nation in the grip of a serious energy and food crisis to bring the US to the negotiating table. But the US branded the move "regrettable" and warned that the DPRK's gambit would fail. The US is clearly not going to play ball, said an expert at the Unification Ministry which handles DPRK affairs here. "Basically, North Korea wants to renegotiate its whole relationship with Washington and is using the nuclear issue to force the United States to engage. Washington won't budge on that," he said. "What is certain is that this crisis is not going to end any time soon." ("NORTH KOREA RATCHETS UP TENSION, ACCUSES WASHINGTON OF PIRACY," 12/13/02) and Washington Post (Doug Struck, "North Korea Says It Will Renew Work at Reactors," Tokyo, 12/13/02)
The Associated Press reported that the DPRK said it would reactivate a mothballed nuclear program because of a US decision to cut off fuel aid. The statement sparked alarm in the ROK and came as a direct challenge to US intensive efforts to force the DPRK to abandon its nuclear ambitions. The ROK expressed "grave concern" after President Kim Dae-Jung called an emergency National Security meeting and Japan's Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said the statement was "extremely regrettable." The DPRK move came as the US pondered possible military action against Iraq and a day after US concerns about the DPRK' nuclear and missile programs were highlighted by the seizure of a DPRK consignment of Scud missiles bound for Yemen.
In a report carried by the Korean Central News Agency, the energy-starved state said it would scrap a 1994 agreement to freeze its plutonium-producing nuclear facilities because it needed extra power production. "The DPRK government has no choice but to lift a nuclear freeze which had been enforced on the precondition of supplies of 500,000 tonnes of heavy oil annually in accordance with the DPRK-US Framework Agreement," said the DPRK statement. It said the DPRK would "immediately resume operation and construction of nuclear facilities necessary for electric power generation." But North Korea also said that it was committed to finding "a peaceful solution to the nuclear issue" and hinted that it would consider a re-freeze depending on how the US responded. (Christopher Torchia, "DEFIANT NORTH KOREA SAYS IT WILL REACTIVATE NUCLEAR REACTOR THAT WAS FROZEN UNDER 1994 DEAL," Seoul, 12/12/02) and the Agence France-Presse ("NORTH KOREA SPARKS CRISIS FEAR OVER NUCLEAR PROGRAMME, BLAMES US," 12/12/02)
Северная Корея заявила МАГАТЭ, что желает открыть ядерный объект, находившийся в середине 90-х в самом центре конфликта, касающегося возможной разработки Пхеньяном ядерного оружия.
После заключения рамочного соглашения с США о поставках нефтепродуктов в обмен на отказ от ядерной программы, объект был опечатан сотрудниками МАГАТЭ, и на нем были установлены телекамеры постоянного контроля и наблюдения. В пятницу КНДР заявила о своем требовании вскрыть печати и убрать телекамеры. Ранее, в четверг, КНДР заявила, что желает вновь запустить ядерный реактор на этом предприятии. (Reuters, Kyodo, Gazeta.Ru in Russian)
The New York Times reported that the DPRK said today that it was immediately lifting a freeze on a nuclear reactor that has been mothballed since a 1994 crisis that nearly led to war between the two countries. The DPRK justified the surprise decision, which is the latest in a sharply downward spiral in relations with the US, by invoking a recent US suspension of fuel oil deliveries to the DPRK. The fuel cutoff, in turn, was announced as punishment for a secret nuclear weapons program, whose existence US diplomats say the DPRK acknowledged in early October. The DPRK Foreign Ministry said in a statement: "The prevailing situation compelled the DPRK government to lift its nuclear freeze adopted on the premise that 500,000 tons of heavy oil would be annually supplied to the DPRK. under the DPRK.-US Agreed Framework and immediately resume the operation and construction of its nuclear facilities to generate electricity." The statement, which was published by the official Korean Central News Agency, added, "Whether the DPRK refreezes its nuclear facilities or not hinges upon the US." (Don Kirk, "NORTH KOREA TO REOPEN NUCLEAR PLANT OVER OIL CUTOFF BY US," Tokyo, 12/12/02)
The Associated Press reported that the DPRK was silent Wednesday about the interception of a ship allegedly carrying missiles from the DPRK, but said it had the right to develop weapons to defend itself. "It is necessary to heighten vigilance against the US strategy for world supremacy and 'anti-terrorism war,'" the DPRK newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, said in an editorial. "All the countries are called upon to build self-reliant military power by their own efforts," the newspaper said. It was unclear whether the editorial was a response to the interception. In a possible sign of US-ROK tension, the party of a leading presidential candidate in Seoul questioned the timing of the White House announcement Tuesday that a ship carrying a dozen Scud-type missiles was intercepted in the Arabian Sea with the help of US intelligence.
The party of Roh Moo-hyun, a candidate in the December 19 election who says he wants a more "equal" relationship with the US, noted that some US and ROK news media reported earlier this month about an alleged DPRK ship bound for Yemen with missile parts. "We cannot help having questions about the background of the interception," said Lee Nak-yon, spokesman of the pro-government Millennium Democratic Party. Lee did not elaborate. But a party official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the statement was meant to question whether the US timed the interception in an attempt to influence the outcome of ROK's election. (Sang-Hun Choe, "FOLLOWING INTERCEPTION OF MISSILE SHIPMENT, NORTH KOREA ACCUSES UNITED STATES OF SEEKING GLOBAL SUPREMACY," Seoul, 12/11/02)
The Associated Press reported that the DPRK on Wednesday accused the ROK of trying to incite a naval clash by sending warships into its territorial waters off the western coast. The ROK rejected the accusations. The DPRK' said two ROK warships and five fishing boats stayed in DPRK waters "for hours" Wednesday morning and another navy ship for about half an hour shortly after noon. "This provocation ... is a prearranged move of the South Korean military authorities to spark one more shocking incident in the west sea and shift the blame for it on the North side," said KCNA, monitored in Seoul. ("NORTH KOREA ACCUSES SOUTH KOREAN WARSHIPS OF INTRUDING ON MARITIME BORDER," Seoul, 12/11/02)
The Associated Press reported that the onset of winter may seem an inopportune time for the US to stop shipping sorely needed heavy oil the DPRK, where temperatures of 20 below zero Fahrenheit (-29 Celsius) are routine at this time of year. The halt was announced just days ahead of a revised administration food aid policy for the DPRK that could lead to cutbacks in 2003. These are among signs of broad international unhappiness with the DPRK lately. The country may be as isolated now as it has been at any time over the past three years. The Japan is cutting back on food assistance.
Europeans are feeling sandbagged by Pyongyang's policies, says Robert Einhorn of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He lists new European aid as doubtful under present circumstances. Besides the U.S. oil shipments, Einhorn believes that another doomed energy assistance initiative will be two light-water reactors for the DPRK that are being financed mostly by Japan and the ROK. "It is extremely unlikely that both light-water reactors will be produced," Einhorn says. Nobody will announce the actual pulling of the plug because, he says, that would only encourage a DPRK provocation in response.
Peter Hayes, who follows the DPRK at the California-based Nautilus Institute, says the DPRK's home and workplace heating problems are such that the cutoff of US oil shipments after eight years won't make much of a difference. "The energy economy is one-tenth of what it used to be," Hayes said. "If you reduce it by 5 to 10 percent, you may get a 1 percent effect." Even if an oil shipment initially set for next week had gone ahead as scheduled, most of the country's buildings would have remained without heat anyway, he says. Hayes believes that the DPRK will be able to evade the devastating famine that struck the country in 1996-97. But, he says, the situation remains grim, with "highly concentrated pockets of extreme malnutrition and starvation" in some areas and "generalized hunger" elsewhere. As always, food supplies in Pyongyang will be adequate, he adds. (George Gedda, "ISOLATED NORTH KOREA FACES A COLD AND HUNGRY WINTER," Washington, 12/11/02)
By Ahmed Al-Haj, Associated Press Writer, Wednesday, December 11, 2002; 8:18 PM
SAN'A, Yemen –– The U.S. Navy released the shipment of North Korean-made Scud missiles it seized, sending the vessel and its cargo on their way Wednesday to the original destination of Yemen. White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said the United States had authority to stop and search the vessel, but not to seize it. "There is no clear authority to seize the shipment," Fleischer told a news conference in Washington. "The merchant vessel is being released." Even before the shipment was stopped, Yemen had agreed in principle to stop dealing with North Korea, but the agreement had not yet taken effect. The official Saba news agency said the United States had assured Yemen
that the shipment would be released as long as the Yemen-North Korea deal was concluded on legal basis.
The Bush administration in August imposed sanctions on the North Korean company Changgwang Sinyong Corp. for selling Scud missile parts to Yemen. At that time, U.S. authorities asked Yemen why it bought the parts; San'a apologized and promised not to do so again, two defense officials said Wednesday in Washington. Under the U.S. sanctions, Changgwang Sinyong Corp. will be barred for two years from obtaining new individual export licenses through the Commerce or State departments for any controlled items. The sanctions have little practical effect, one official said, because there is so little commerce between the United States and North Korea.
North Korea was silent Wednesday about the interception of the ship, but said it had the right to develop weapons to defend itself. "It is necessary to heighten vigilance against the U.S. strategy for world supremacy and 'anti-terrorism war,'" the North's official newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, said in an editorial. "All the countries are called upon to build self-reliant military power by their own efforts," the newspaper said. It was unclear whether the editorial was a response to the interception, as North Korea usually takes several days or longer to respond to international events.
By Tom Raum, Associated Press Writer, Tuesday, December 10, 2002; 10:30 PM
WASHINGTON. A ship carrying a dozen Scud-type missiles believed to originate in North Korea was intercepted in the Arabian Sea on Tuesday, the White House said. U.S. officials said the missiles were at least initially headed for Yemen. The ship was stopped and boarded about 600 miles east of the Horn of Africa, after close tracking by U.S. intelligence, said U.S. officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The ship contained about a dozen short- to medium-range missiles, similar to the Scud missiles used by Iraq in the Persian Gulf War, the officials said. It also contained missile parts.
The ship allegedly carrying the missiles was stopped by two vessels from the Spanish Navy participating in Operation Enduring Freedom, the U.S.-led global anti-terrorism coalition, said Alberto Martinez Arias, a spokesman for Spain's Defense Ministry. Crews from the Spanish ships, the Navarra and Patino, stopped the unflagged ship "Sosan" east of the island of Socotora and called U.S. authorities for assistance, Martinez said. The Spanish Navy stopped and boarded the ship after its crew refused to identify themselves.
The North Korean captain of the Sosan initially told Spanish officials the ship was carrying cement. The Scuds were discovered shortly thereafter, Martinez said. The ship was being held in the area while the search continued and as U.S. experts, who shortly afterward boarded the vessel, made sure that any explosive materials were neutralized, U.S. officials said. It was not clear where the ship was registered, a senior administration official said. It was unclear precisely what missiles were aboard the seized vessel. North Korea has built and exported at least two missiles in the Scud class: the Scud B and the Scud D, or No Dong.
Without providing specifics, the senior administration official said the United States has evidence beyond the identity of the crew to identified the missiles as originating in North Korea. Scud B missiles were produced in large numbers by the former Soviet Union and ended up in Iraq and North Korea, among other nations. The missiles are very inaccurate, often break up in flight and have a range of less than 200 miles. The Scud D, or No Dong, missile produced by North Korea is advanced compared with the Scud B. It has a range of about 840 miles and can carry a conventional, chemical or nuclear warhead. Iran and Pakistan use modified versions of the No Dong, and
Pakistan's are fitted to carry nuclear warheads.
The Associated Press reported that the United Nations must push for humanitarian and food aid monitoring in the DPRK just as it has for weapons inspections in Iraq because the DPRK deliberately misuses the international donations, an activist urged Tuesday. German doctor Norbert Vollertsen said the DPRK diverts the food aid to military elite in the capital of Pyongyang or sells it in diplomatic stores for hard currency instead of delivering it to the impoverished people in the countryside. Vollertsen, speaking before Japanese Parliament's lower house Security Committee, volunteered his medical services to DPRK in 1999 and won a friendship medal from the government along with the privilege to visit areas off-limits to most outsiders. He was later expelled after criticizing the DPRK's government policies. He urged Japan, as one of the DPRK's biggest food aid donors, to pressure the United Nations to adopt a food monitoring program in the DPRK, and compared it to the body's resolution for weapons inspectors in Iraq. "Japan as a main contributor of food aid can emphasize at UN that there is a right for food inspectors like weapon inspectors in Iraq and go into this country accompanied by diplomats, human aid workers and journalists," Vollertsen said. (Hans Greimel, "ACTIVIST CALLS FOR UN FOOD AID MONITORING OF NORTH KOREA," Tokyo, 12/10/02)
Joongang Ilbo reported that DPRK is seeking to buy from PRC companies a chemical that can be used in the process of producing nuclear weapons fuel, the Washington Times reported Monday, quoting unnamed intelligence sources. DPRK reportedly tried to buy tributyl phosphate, or TBP, from several PRC firms. The chemical has commercial uses, but the US intelligence community believes that DPRK wanted it to advance its uranium-based nuclear weapons program. A CIA spokesman declined to comment. Leonard Spector, deputy director of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies in California, told the newspaper, "North Korea is getting ready to exploit the demise of the Agreed Framework." The 1994 agreement was to have halted DPRK's nuclear programs, but it has admitted to continuing them. ("NORTH SAID TO SOLICIT NUCLEAR-FUEL CHEMICAL," Washington, 12/10/02)
Chosun Ilbo reported that the opening of the Mount Kumkang land route tourism program via a temporary east coast highway, which was expected to take place from December 17, was postponed until after the 16th presidential election on December 19. ROK government official said Monday although the Hyundai Asan survey team will be going to DPRK this week, the date of the land route tour had not been agreed on. The tour was originally set to start December 11 and the official said the reasons for this delay were DPRK's request for tour fees of US$10 million, which have not been paid for at the present and complications with military approval on tourist passage through the DMZ. (Kim In-ku, "NK WANTS US$10 MILLION FOR KUMGANG LAND ROUTE," Seoul, 12/10/02)
by Alexandre Mansourov, Month Day, 2002
The Korean peninsula lived in the nuclear shadow for decades. All North Korean neighbors in Northeast Asia possess nuclear power: Russia, China, and the United States are long-time members of the nuclear club, whereas Japan and the ROK are the so-called "para-nuclear states" with robust nuclear energy programs and a near-term nuclear option in terms of their ability to manufacture and deploy nuclear weapons on a relatively short notice. Korean leaders in the North and the South harbored nuclear ambitions and kept their nuclear option open for several decades. Great powers extended their nuclear umbrellas to both Korean states during the Cold War. Since the end of the Cold War, the ROK continued to rely on the U.S. nuclear deterrence, whereas the DPRK has been facing an implicit U.S. nuclear threat mostly on its own. Thus, any hope of removing the Korean peninsula from under the nuclear shadow is simply wishful thinking...
By John Larkin/SUWON, Issue cover-dated December 05, 2002
ARMED WITH only what looks like a fancy pair of steel chopsticks, Choi Min Young hunts North Korean spies. Slowly he paces around holes he has bored deep into the earth a two-hour drive from the Demilitarized Zone that divides the communist North from capitalist South Korea.
Suddenly the rods twitch in his grip. "Right now there are 30 North Koreans right beneath us," he says in a hushed voice. "Soldiers are patrolling over to the right."
Choi uses a technique called dowsing--also known as divining--an ancient method of locating hidden objects by sensing their energy. Many dowsers use metal rods to help to focus the energy they seek. Dowsing's many
critics deride it as voodoo science. But a handful of dowsing practitioners like Choi swear it is a legitimate skill.
Choi claims to have used dowsing to discover a tunnel at Suwon, more than 100 kilometres south of the DMZ, running perilously close to South Korean and United States' military bases.
Choi is quick to reveal what he says is hard evidence. He plays recordings of muffled voices and hammering noises. He displays a scrap of cable he says the North Koreans used to trap one of his group's drilling rods
underground, but which snapped when the rod was yanked out with a crane. And, brandishing fragments of cement extracted during bedrock drilling, he exclaims: "This is man-made. What's it doing 20 metres underground?"
Choi and his cohorts may seem paranoid. But the notion that North Korea has dug as-yet-undiscovered infiltration tunnels under the border isn't so crazy. It is generally accepted that only a handful of the tunnels
North Korea has drilled into the South have been discovered. Four tunnels built by Pyongyang to infiltrate spies in peacetime and troops in war were found from 1974 to 1990 near the DMZ. U.S. military officials believe there may be as many as 22 more. South Korea's military maintains a special unit to investigate resident reports of suspicious underground noises.
Choi is one of a small band of diehard South Korean anti-communists who see themselves as the last line of defence against invasion. These self-titled Invasion Tunnel Hunters have been searching for 10 years. Their commitment says a lot about the paranoia that grips this part of the world, where the Cold War never really ended.
"[North Koreans] can come up from these tunnels and capture us all at any minute," thunders Yoon Yo Kil, a former top South Korean missile scientist and now a colleague of Choi's. "North Korea will never change."
That attitude has hobbled South Korean President Kim Dae Jung's attempts to engage the North. Despite stunning successes, Kim has failed to end the distrust many Koreans feel toward Pyongyang, especially those old enough to recall the bloody 1950-53 Korean War.
With only three months left of his five-year term, his signature policy of engaging Pyongyang with economic incentives lies in ruins. In June 2000, he and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il held the first summit between the
two Koreas since division. Two years ago he won the Nobel Peace Prize.
The thaw didn't throw Choi off the scent. He tracked his quarry to Suwon, an hour's drive south of Seoul. There, his team scooped out an eight-metre-deep hole and also drilled within sight of a South Korean army base. It is implausible that Pyongyang could have tunnelled so far south, but Choi is convinced that a cavity exists. Unfortunately, he hasn't found it yet, and his group has run out of money to keep digging.
BIG NEWS, IF IT IS THERE
As the first long-range tunnel from the North, stretching far behind South Korea's defences, Choi's tunnel would be big news--if he could find it. But it may be a pipe dream. "We get a zillion phone calls from residents
near the DMZ," says Lt. Yoon Won Je, a spokesman for the Ministry of National Defence. "Most of the time it's a false alarm." The U.S. Forces Korea, which oversees the 37,000 American troops stationed in South Korea, says it uses sophisticated sensors to search for tunnels but has so far come up empty-handed.
The zeal of Choi and his cohorts has alienated some one-time supporters. Cho Gab Je, a journalist at Seoul's Monthly Chosun magazine who has written extensively on infiltration tunnels, says the civilians are deluding
themselves. "Some of them can be described as maniacs," he says. "I don't think the military could deny a tunnel if one was found."
Nevertheless, Yoon Yo Kil doesn't trust official denials. The live-wire 62-year old claims that the South Korean and U.S. militaries have ignored his warnings of tunnels running near their bases, an accusation both armies
deny.
Yoon's quest is personal. His father was executed by North Koreans during the Korean War. Yoon went on to become a top scientist, pioneering so-called "bunker-busting" bombs. In 1992 his obsession changed from blowing up tunnels to detecting them. He was introduced to Jung Ji Yong, who had quit his job as a counter-espionage officer at the Defence Ministry to hunt for tunnels full time.
Jung claims he has found 20 tunnels but blames official cover-ups for preventing any publicity about them. Now he's bankrupt, having sold his house and spent his 30 million won (nearly $25,000) nest egg on drilling. He is separated from his wife and his son refuses all contact. He bounces around cheap hotels and the living rooms of close friends. "But most of the time my home is wherever we are digging for a tunnel. My wife has given up on me. She blames me for thinking tunnels are more important than family."
Jung has another reason for digging. Divorce is still shameful for women in conservative South Korea. So Jung and his wife are still legally married. "Finding a tunnel will save my face," he says. "I'll tell her, and then I'm sure she'll come back to me."
The Associated Press reported that companies should be cautious about investing in a new industrial park where the DPRK hopes to attract ROK factories, a researcher at a Seoul government think tank said Wednesday. The DPRK passed a law on Nov. 20 to create the zone in Kaesong, a town near the western border with the ROK. Negotiators from the two Koreas plan to begin talks in the DPRK on Friday to discuss rules of investment there. Shin Ji-ho of Seoul's government-funded Korea Development Institute said that energy shortages and other poor infrastructure make opening businesses in Kaesung four times more expensive than in industrial parks in the PRC.
The average monthly wage of DPRK factory workers is estimated at US$13. But the cash-starved DPRK is demanding that its workers in Kaesung be paid US$80-100, making them a more expensive work force than their counterparts in the PRC and Vietnam, he said. Shin also pointed out that ROK companies won't be able to export goods produced in Kaesung to the US or Japan due to trade restrictions unless the DPRK resolves international concerns over its nuclear weapons program. "South Korea should be more cautious and persuade North Korea to take steps to make its industrial park a more profitable place to invest," Shin said in his report. ("EXPERT CASTS DOUBT ON NEW INDUSTRIAL ZONE IN NORTH KOREA," Seoul, 12/04/02)
The Agence France-Presse reported that a slump in donations could force the UN World Food Programme to halt work in the DPRK by April 1, WFP executive director James Morris warned the Security Council. This year WFP had to cut its operations in the DPRK to help only 3.4 million people, compared with 6.4 million last year, Morris told a public council meeting. "I anticipate cutting it in half again in January," he said. "We will need 550,000 metric tons of food in North Korea next year; at this stage we have commitments for 33,000 metric tons -- 23,000 from the European Community and 10,000 from Italy," he said. "It is conceivable that, come April 1, we will not have resources to do our work and that there will not be a WFP, and ultimately a United Nations presence, in that country."
Morris said WFP had 50 international staff and 60 local employees in the DPRK, and that it was the only international organization with offices outside the capital, Pyongyang, in five provincial cities. "We are essentially the presence of the United Nations in North Korea," he said, noting that other agencies such as the UN Children's Fund (UNICEF) and the World Health Organisation had "a very small presence." "Our major supporters have not made commitments for our work in North Korea, for a variety of reasons," but WFP focused on helping hungry people and left political problems to others, he said. He did not elaborate. ("WORLD FOOD PROGRAMME COULD CLOSE IN NORTH KOREA BY APRIL," 12/04/02)
The Associated Press reported that the DPRK said Wednesday it had rejected a call by the International Atomic Energy Agency to open its nuclear weapons program to inspections, saying the UN nuclear watchdog was abetting US policy toward the DPRK. The IAEA called on the DPRK last week to open its atomic weapons program to inspections and said it "deplored" the DPRK's assertion it had a right to possess the weapons. The DPRK spurned the resolution as "an extremely unilateral resolution." "The DPRK government cannot accept the November 29 resolution of the IAEA board of governors in any case and... there is no change in its principled stand on the nuclear issue," Korea Central News Agency said. (Sang-Hun Choe, "NORTH KOREA REJECTS CALL FOR INSPECTIONS," Seoul, 12/04/02) and Reuters ("N.KOREA REJECTS U.N. NUCLEAR WATCHDOG'S CALL," Seoul, 12/04/02)
The Agence France-Presse reported that the suspension of heavy fuel supplies to the DPRK from this month could prevent aid agencies from delivering much-need relief supplies this winter, the international Red Cross said Tuesday. "A severe fuel shortage is already costing lives and is responsible for a high incidence of acute respiratory infections in winter as people are unable to keep warm," the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies said. A lack of fuel for transport also is making it difficult for humanitarian organizations to deliver aid, including food, the organization said. The situation is especially urgent because this year's harvest is expected to be good but the food will go to waste if it cannot reach those who need it, the IFRC said. The humanitarian situation is so bad that aid deliveries should be made easier, not more difficult, it added. ("RED CROSS: HALTING OF FUEL DELIVERIES COULD AFFECT NORTH KOREA AID OPERATIONS," Geneva, 12/03/02)
The Associated Press reported that the US-led United Nations Command says it has agreed to simplify procedures for ROK tourists traveling to the DPRK via a newly built cross-border road. The agreement, reached with the ROK's Defense Ministry on Saturday, cleared the way for ROK tourists to visit the DPRK's scenic Diamond Mountain resort via an overland route. Inspectors will test the road on Thursday, and the first group of tourists will use it December 11. Under a joint tourism project with the DPRK that started in 1998, the ROK's Hyundai group is running a cruise tour to the resort. The overland tour will be less expensive. Border crossings require approval by the UN Command, which oversees the southern half of the 4 kilometer (2.5 mile)-wide Demilitarized Zone separating the ROK and the DPRK. ("UN COMMAND AGREES TO SIMPLIFY INTER-KOREAN BORDER-CROSSING RULES," Seoul, 12/02/02)
The Japan Times reported that Japan's foreign minister Yoriko Kawaguchi denied Saturday that Japan will provide any food aid to DPRK and said the government is not considering any such assistance at present. "From now, the government's stance is to consider comprehensively various concerns such as abduction issue and then decide," Kawaguchi said at a town meeting with residents of Nagoya. On the question of bilateral talks with Pyongyang, Kawaguchi acknowledged they are "now in a condition where not much progress is possible," but added that "we are frequently conducting dialogue at the embassies in Beijing and through other routes." (NO FOOD ASSISTANCE FOR NORTH KOREA, KAWAGUCHI SAYS, Nagoya, 12/01/02)