Return to *North Korean Studies*
by Christopher Hitchens
Pyongyang, North Korea
Whichever of the two losers assumed the presidency of these United States mattered not at all in terms of construction of a "Star Wars," or Ballistic Missile Defense, system, since both promised to begin work on it. Indeed, this agreement may well form part of the much-anticipated healing process between the two party oligarchies. (Perhaps Bush will retain the services of William Cohen, who was a compassionate conservative to begin with, at the Defense Department. Gore could have generously found room for a Powell/Rice clone in the
same capacity.) Given the proven and demonstrated unworkability and cost of the proposed system, it is very slightly more probable that Bush could cancel it without loss of face. But the "contractor community" (as I once heard it seriously called) has demands and donations to make and raised expectations to be fulfilled, and the exorbitant amount already committed may need to be justified, so it is sure that we will be hearing a great deal more about the need to protect ourselves from North Korea.
How to convey the absurdity of this? Take the example of the Taepodong missile test, that "shot heard round the world," when the North Koreans fired a rocket into the air and watched it splash down on the other side of Japan. Red alerts all around, huge talk about a new "rogue state" and a threat from sinister Asian Stalinism. Well, the most salient fact about that missile test was that, like the more grandiose Pacific tests of the Star Wars interceptors, it was a failure. The objective of the Taepodong rocket was to get a North Korean satellite into orbit; no signal from any such satellite has ever been picked up...
In July 1998, George W Bush's Defense Secretary-designate Donald Rumsfeld chaired a commission which produced an influential report claiming that America stood in imminent danger of missile attack by "rogue" states such as Iran, Iraq and North Korea. Just a month later, Pyongyang without warning fired a Taepodong missile over Japan, and the US missile defense bandwagon was rolling in earnest. Conspiracy or coincidence?
The Asahi Shimbun reported that the ROK Unification Ministry announced on December 29 that the DPRK's population is estimated to be 22,000,000. The report said that based on the 1994 estimation of 21,210,000, the ministry considered natural increases and decreases by the effects of natural disasters and famine in estimating the figure ("ROK UNIFICATION MINISTRY ESTIMATES THAT DPRK POPULATION IS 22,000,000," 12/30/2000). The Yomiuri Shimbun reported that according to the Japanese-based pro-DPRK News Agency on December 16, this year's DPRK Yearbook estimated the DPRK's population in 1997 to be 22,350,000. The report said that the figure increased by 241,000 from the 1996 estimate. ("DPRK POPULATION WAS 22,350,000 IN 1997," Seoul, 12/17/2000)
The Associated Press reported that the ROK newspapers Dong-A Ilbo and JoongAng Ilbo on Tuesday cited an unidentified ROK government official as saying that two DPRK fighter jets collided during a nighttime training exercise last week. The official did not comment on the fate of the pilots. He said that the DPRK suspended such flights, but it was not immediately known if the training had resumed.
The office of the ROK chairman of joint chiefs of staff said it could neither confirm nor deny the report. The reports speculated that a lack of training by DPRK military pilots led to the collision, citing ROK defense officials as saying that DPRK pilots log only a few dozen hours flying time annually due to fuel shortages. ("REPORT: 2 FIGHTER JETS COLLIDE," Seoul, 12/18/00)
In the first unambiguous sign that North Korea really does plan to rejoin the planet, a major global corporation is taking the plunge and going in. Asea Brown Boveri, the Swedish-Swiss engineering multinational, is to undertake nothing less than the modernization of North Korea'sentire national electricity grid. The short-term difficulties for ABB will be considerable, writes Aidan Foster-Carter, but the long-term rewards could be immense.
So far, just 200 out of 70,000 South Korean applicants have been allowed brief reunions with their kin in the North. Koreans living in other countries like the US and Japan, however, are seen by Pyongyang as cash cows rather than a political risk, and are welcome to visit the North, for a price. It may be a long time before South and North Koreans at home get that lucky
The Clinton administration's on-again, off-again approach to
promoting diplomatic ties with North Korea is partly a result of opposition to
U.S. rapprochement from key congressional leaders and defense industry
lobbyists. For its part, a cautious North Korea has also conducted its own
hard bargaining.
Either way, U.S. policy toward North Korea continues to chart a hesitant
course. To site a few, recent examples: President Clinton plans a trip to
Pyongyang, then cancels it; the U.S. promises to lift economic sanctions, then
insists that North Korea jump through more hoops to get off the
"terrorism list." The U.S. clears the way for North Korean diplomats
to participate in the UN's Millennium Forum, but doesn't make the extra effort
to prevent an embarrassing body search at the Frankfurt airport; And the
U.S.-negotiated project to build two light-water nuclear reactors in North
Korea is hamstrung by delays and, more recently, the announced withdrawal of a
key supplier, General Electric.
To be most helpful, the U.S. should let Koreans themselves take the lead in resolving their own conflicts. Washington can best encourage these initiatives by sending President Clinton to Pyongyang to accelerate the process of normalizing relations and formally ending the Korean War. After that, the U.S. should loosen the screws of its containment policy, open up the flow of multilateral assistance to North Korea, and then step back to give Koreans on both sides of the 38th parallel a chance to get to know each other better.
Agence France-Presse reported that Tomas Liew, head of the DPRK program for the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, said Friday that doctors in the DPRK are under-prescribing medicine because of fears that donations will run out. Liew stated, "Instead of treating one patient with the drugs they should, they treat two." He added that hospitals lack heating and are so cold that sick DPRK prefer to stay at home. Liew said that other than the drugs given to them by Red Cross and other international aid groups, the DPRK has no source of effective medicine. ("NORTH KOREAN DOCTORS SKIMPING ON VITAL MEDICINE FOR SICK: RED CROSS," Beijing, 12/08/00) and the Associated Press ("N. KOREAN DOCS SAID HOARDING DRUGS," Beijing, 12/08/2000)
The Asahi Shimbun reported that a high-ranking official from the DPRK food policy authority revealed to visiting Japanese former Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama and his delegation that the DPRK's food production decreased this year by 1,000,000 tons from the previous year. This year's production has marked 3,262,000 tons, said the report.
The Murayama delegation also told reporters at the Beijing Airport on December 5 that the DPRK still needs 2,200,000 tons of food and that the official expressed gratitude for the 500,000 tons of rice aid from the Japanese government. The report added that although the United Nations Food and Agriculture Agency announced the prospect for the DPRK's decreasing food amount in November, the specific amount of necessary food that the high-ranking official requested from the delegation is the first-ever specific amount revealed by the DPRK. ("DPRK FOOD PRODUCTION DECREASES," 12/06/2000)
The Associated Press reported that David Morton, the UN resident coordinator in the DPRK, said on Thursday that the DPRK is suffering its worst food shortages since 1996-97. Morton said that if the ROK, Japan, the US and other nations provide 810,000 tons of food, relief agencies should able to feed the DPRK's people through the winter and into next year's growing season. He warned, "It will be a big step backward for the country if we don't manage to help it enough this year."
He also said that a failure by relief agencies could set back the process of political rapprochement. He argued, "The initial suspicion and mistrust on both sides [when international aid organizations first came to the DPRK] has been substantially reduced, and the North's understanding of how the West works increased. It's been a big confidence-building measure for North Korea in dealing with the outside world."
Morton said that a drought this spring and two tropical storms in September have set back efforts to help the DPRK. Morton was attending a UN-funded international symposium on the Koreas and ways of establishing peace in Northeast Asia. (Thomas Wagner, "U.N.: N. KOREA FACING FOOD SHORTAGE," Kyoto, 12/07/00)
The global technology company ABB issued a press release which said that it had signed a "wide-ranging, long-term" cooperation agreement with the DPRK aimed at improving the performance of the country's electricity transmission network and basic industries.
The statement said, "The agreement was signed in Pyongyang during a recent four-day visit by an ABB delegation led by President and CEO Goran Lindahl. It covers investment opportunities and technical cooperation in the area of modernizing DPRK's national electrical grid, and upgrading electrical equipment and control systems in power plants and industrial plants. It also covers cooperation in the field of wind power and solar energy systems as well as the opening of a representative office in Pyongyang in 2001."
ABB said that it will review joint investment opportunities with partner enterprises in the DPRK electrical
products and services sector. ABB would assume management control and transfer technology and management expertise. A delegation of DPRK
Ministers said that ABB would be provided with "favorable frame conditions for their investment and technical cooperation."
("ABB SIGNS COOPERATION AGREEMENT WITH DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF KOREA,"
Zurich, 12/01/00)
SEOUL -- Rep. Tony P. Hall, D-Ohio, today called for countries concerned about North Korea's 21 million people to renew international efforts to fight a famine that has worsened in the past year. Hall reported on his November 25-28 visit to hospitals, orphanages and other sites in Chongjin and other cities outside Pyongyang. The visit was Hall's sixth to North Korea since 1996...
NORTHEAST ASIA PEACE AND SECURITY NETWORK
***** SPECIAL REPORT *****
The following "DPRK Report" is the product of a joint project between the Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) of the Monterey Institute of International Studies (Monterey, California, USA) and the Institute for Contemporary International Problems (ICIP) (Moscow, Russia). It is written by Russian analysts associated with the ICIP and edited by the CNS....
After three days of wrangling and a walkout by the North, the two Koreas have arrived at a provisional agreement on economic cooperation. Some basic points, essential if inter-Korean business is to take off, seem to have been ironed out. The tortuous nature of the talks is a good sign - it shows both sides are serious. And they can ill afford, in all senses, not to be...
by Aidan Foster-Carter
North Korea's Dear Leader has a new flavor of the month - catfish - and the nation's meagre resources will no doubt be commandeered to further the catfish cause. Given Kim Jong-il's other pet projects - potato farming and the production of salt from seawater - can a fish-and-chip franchise be far behind?...
The New York Times reported that while reporters who accompanied US Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright on her recent trip to the DPRK were restricted in their movements, they did see several paradoxes in the country. The article noted that while the DPRK officials promoted the motto "Children are king," Western aid workers were recently upset to see children labouring on a road-building project. It also said that, despite the recent moves toward diplomatic opening, DPRK officials forbade US officials who drove over the demilitarized zone from the ROK from bringing their ROK drivers with them, and ordered that all signs in English and ROK emblems affixed to the cars had to be covered.
The article said that all televisions and radios in the DPRK, which broadcast only government material, must be registered. It quoted Ken Quinones, former DPRK desk officer at the US State Department and now head of Northeast Asia projects for Mercy Corps, as saying that the US officials who visited the DPRK five years ago had to negotiate for the right to go for a quarter-mile walk to a tree outside the gate of their hotel.
Quinones stated, "Everything was gradual and incremental, with profuse explanations every step of the way." The article also quoted Peter Hayes, executive director of the Nautilus Institute, as saying that Nautilus has been gradually able to gain the trust of the DPRK villagers at its windpower project, by delivering on its promises. Hayes said that one of the DPRK members of the project team told him, "My mother thinks that all Americans are wolves, and we are the prey." However, another DPRK citizen expressed gratitude that the project was bringing electricity to his family, adding, "Thank you, please come back and build more." (Jane Perlez, "THE STRANGE WORLD OF NORTH KOREA," Washington, 11/05/00)
The prospect of a journey to North Korea by US President Bill Clinton in the waning days of his term has drawn decidedly lukewarm appraisals from many observers. They warn that this exercise in "legacy politics" could backfire badly. Even the White House has backed away from the expectation that the president will go to Pyongyang soon....
The Korea Herald reported that an ROK report said Wednesday that the DPRK is expected to suffer from a food shortage of 3.8 million tons until next year's harvest season due to its underdeveloped agricultural sector. "This year's food production in the North is estimated at 2.4 million to 2.7 million tons," said Kim Woon-keun, senior fellow at the Korea Rural Economic Institute (KREI), at a seminar.
As the DPRK's food demand is estimated at 6.2 million tons,
this would lead to a food shortage of up to 3.8 million tons next year, he
added. Daud Khan, who is responsible for the Asia-Pacific region at the
UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), noted that only 2 million hectares
out of
the 12.3 million-ha DPRK territory are now suitable for farming. "Moreover,
the temperature there is below zero for more than three months out of the
year, and drought and floods often destroy seeding and harvest seasons,"
he said. (Kim Ji-ho, "FOOD SHORTAGE IN NORTH TO REACH
3.8 MIL. TONS NEXT YEAR," Seoul, 11/02/00)
"Kim's diplomatic slam dunk" by CONSTANTINE PLESHAKOV (The Japan Times)
A half year ago, North Korea was a rogue state; now it is a popular destination for members of President Bill Clinton's administration. Last summer the White House was concerned about North Korea's missile program. Today it is concerned about the gift Clinton should carry to Pyongyang. The options are staggering: a round-trip ticket to Disneyland? An extra-large pizza? Perhaps a skateboard?...
Chosun Ilbo reported that DPRK's leader Kim Jong Il maintained Sunday that he would carry out reform of the country's economy without the introduction of foreign capital, according to a broadcast by the DPRK's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). The agency said that Kim stated that the country had the base of its own self-reliant and supporting economy provided by its leader and so should not "dance to the tune of others."
KCNA noted that Kim stressed that the introduction of foreign capital would lead to bankruptcy, collapse and the eventual destruction of the country. (Yoon Jong-ho, "KIM JONG IL REJECTS FOREIGN CAPITAL," Seoul, 10/30/00)
The Washington Post published an editorial which said that the editor were amazed that US Secretary of State Madeline Albright would allow herself to be photographed, smiling, as 100,000 "essentially enslaved laborers" performed for her and "one of the world's most repressive dictators." The editor noted that the reader may find the observation as unfair because Albright knew about DPRK Kim Jong-il's dictatorship and insulting her hosts would have been self-indulgent and counterproductive. However, the editor wrote, "that argument misses the importance of America's public diplomacy. We know, from past example, how influential the United States can be when it chooses to show disapproval for the morally repugnant--and when it chooses not to."
Therefore, the editorial continues, when US leaders toast a dictator without a word of disapproval, they just as certainly dishearten those who would fight for freedom. It continues, "This is not an argument against engagement with a dictator; that is a separate debate. The question, rather, is whether you engage without compromising your values. Secretary Albright brought to Pyongyang her human rights adviser, but he was not among the aides at her side in her meetings with Mr. Kim." Her silence on those issues, the editor continues, "diminished U.S. credibility, not only in North Korea but in less threatening countries where the administration chooses to speak, more openly, about human rights." ("TOASTING KIM JONG IL," 10/27/00)
By Aidan Foster-Carter
North Korea is literally a land of darkness, writes Aidan Foster-Carter. Satellite photos of the peninsula at night show a mass of bright lights all over South Korea, but north of the Demilitarized Zone all is black except a faint glimmer around Pyongyang. It will take South Korean resources to switch the Northern lights back on and power Pyongyang's recovery.
North Korea, in the short span of less than half a year after the summit between South Korean President Kim Dae-jung and North Korean leader Kim Il-jong, has now become a battleground for diplomatic influence between China, Russia and the United States. Under these circumstances it will hardly be a great tactical feat for Kim Jong-il to extract any number of political and economic concessions from his various suitors without having to offer much in return in terms of concrete changes in his realm. After the past months of frantic diplomatic activity and feel-good meetings, it's time to take stock and insist in hard-nosed manner on effecting the economic changes which provide the best handle on internal change in North Korea.
Agence France Presse reported that analysts said that the DPRK had given new proof of its desire for change after talks between DPRK leader Kim Jong-il and US Secretary of State Madeline Albright.
Kim Yong-ho, a professor of political science at Hallym University in Seoul said, "North Korea appears to have abandoned its brinkmanship and adopted a new method for negotiations. In the past it used negative extremes including the withdrawal from the (nuclear) Non-Proliferation Treaty to achieve its diplomatic goals. Now it appears to have shifted to positive extremes, such as the gala welcome ceremony for Albright, to take the initiative in negotiations."
Pyon Jin-il, publisher of the Tokyo-based Korea Report newsletter, said, "Kim Jong-il treated the US government's number three figure as if she were the head of state. And one can sense the strong will of Pyongyang to improve its relations with the United States. We should not underestimate the fact that North Korea, one of the world's most aggressive anti-US states, has made such a gesture. The ball is now definitely in Clinton's court and it will be up to Clinton to decide how future US-North Korean relations can progress."
Hideshi Takesada, a professor at Japan's National Institute for Defense Studies, said, "Although it would be decided after Albright briefs Clinton on her visit, the current tide is heading towards his visit taking place."
However, Kim Yong-ho stated, "this is not the right time for Clinton to visit Pyongyang. The issue of weapons of mass destruction and missiles is in the process of being sorted out but it will not be resolved easily. An outgoing president cannot properly guarantee the implementation of any agreement on those long-haul issues."
Kang Sung-yun, a professor of political science at Dongguk University in Seoul, argued, "Clinton has enough reasons to visit Pyongyang if it would help settle the issues of weapons of mass destruction and missiles, which are of the utmost concern to Washington." ("NORTH KOREA'S KIM SWINGS TO NEW EXTREME TO WIN OVER US," Seoul, 10/25/00)
The Washington Post reported that the 46 US journalists allowed into Pyongyang to cover US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright's visit were not allowed to leave the hotel except to witness officially approved ceremonies. An unnamed foreign resident of Pyongyang stated, "I don't think I've ever had a conversation about politics with a North Korean here."
The report said that there were few signs of activity in Pyongyang, except for children coming out of school in the late afternoon. It added that the DPRK has few cars, and thousands of pedestrians walk along the streets. One of the DPRK guides was surprised to learn that ROK President Kim Dae-jung had won the Nobel Peace Prize. He stated, "Kim Jong Il doesn't need any rewards. He only wants our people to become rich and peaceful, and he doesn't need any awards." (Doug Struck, "MUCH IS 'NOT ALLOWED' IN NORTH KOREAN CAPITAL," Pyongyang, 10/24/00, 1), and the Los Angeles Times (Valerie Reitman, "IN THE NORTH, NO NIGHTS ON THE TOWN," Pyongyang, 10/24/00)
The New York Times reported that US reporters in Pyongyang were allowed to go outside the Koryo Hotel and walk a few blocks, and that a noodle bar down a side street near the hotel seemed open to reporters. Officials said that about 2,000 privately owned cars have shown up on the streets in the last year, and that most of them are probably bought with remittances from relatives in Japan. While most restaurants were closed, a kiosk selling sweet potatoes appeared to be doing a lot of business. (Jane Perlez, "ALBRIGHT RECEIVES A SPECTACULAR WELCOME TO NORTH KOREA," Pyongyang, 10/23/00)
Agence France Presse reported that World Food Programme officials in the DPRK said Monday that a five-year mission in the DPRK will last at least another year. WFP's DPRK director Douglas Broderick said, "I wouldn't use the word famine, but the food security situation is generally not good, it is pretty perilous and obviously we are concerned that if there is a large deficit this year then there will be problems later. There are growing indications that this year's harvest may be less than previously expected and that the country may need even greater amounts of food aid than it has received last year."
Broderick denied that aid was being misused, but admitted that the WFP had supplied between one third to a half of the country's "cereal deficit" in recent years, making it easier for the government to ensure that the social "elites" and the military got food from other sources. He added, "The elites and the military want to eat rice and they are eating rice from unattached aid stocks from places like China, while most of the American aid is wheat and corn."
David Morton, United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator, expressed hopes the nation would soon be turning the corner towards self-sufficiency but said it would take more time to see recent agricultural reforms take effect. Morton said, "Our agricultural experts tell us that the level of productivity they have is pretty good, considering the constraints in arable land, fuel and fertilizer, as well as the natural disasters."
However, he doubted that the DPRK was becoming increasingly dependent on WFP handouts. He said, "Right now we don't worry that they will become dependent on the aid because we feel that they are so keen on becoming self-sufficient, while we are seeing a lot of efforts out there to improve the situation." ("FOOD SHORTAGES IN NORTH KOREA STILL PERILOUS, WFP SAYS," Pyongyang, 10/23/00)
Chosun Ilbo reported that according to a western source on Sunday, the DPRK's Ahnbyon Chongyon (Kumgang Mountain) hydro-electric power station, which was completed on October 20, has the secondary military purpose of technically being able to flood the ROK. DPRK military units constructed a dam on the Imjin River halting flow southward, and built three 40km water conduits to funnel water east to the 400Kw hydroelectric station.
Construction of the dam had been suspended due to a lack of funds, but was resumed on September 30 1999 after an influx of money from the Hyundai Kumgang Mountains project. (Jee Hae-bom, "NK MILITARY COMPLETES DAM," Beijing, 10/21/00)
Agence France Presse reported that British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook announced in Seoul on Thursday that Britain would establish relations with the DPRK. British analysts said hat the move is in the right direction, but dismissed hopes of a sudden change on the DPRK's human rights or nuclear weapons issue.
Michael Leifer of the London School of Economics, said, "I think there's a growing feeling that anything that can help North Korea to come out of its diplomatic shell would be good."
James Miles, of the International Institute of Strategic Studies, said the West sensed the DPRK was embarked on "a serious process" of rapprochement.
However, Paul Burton, editor of Jane's Sentinel said that one view of the DPRK's new direction was that its economy was in such poor shape that it had no choice but to open up. He said that once it had gained enough economic aid, there was a "distinct possibility" it would retreat to the "bad old days."
As for the issue of bringing up human rights, Burton said, "over-stating these issues may actually push the North back into its shell." Regarding the DPRK's nuclear weapons program, Burton said, "It's Washington's actions, if anything, that will determine the degree of Pyongyang's willingness to fall into line on proliferation issues."
In Seoul, British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook said that closer ties meant that Britain could raise human rights and other concerns. Cook said, "This opening of diplomatic relations is not in any way an approval of the conduct of the regime." ("LONDON EXTENDS PRAGMATIC HAND TO N.KOREA: ANALYSTS," London, 10/19/00)
Agence France Presse reported that analysts said that formal relations with Britain is a new diplomatic coup for the DPRK, but there will be no celebrations in the DPRK until the US has an embassy there.
Leon Sigal, a professor at the Social Science Research Council in New York, said, "What the North wants is a secure political relationship with the United States and in return it is prepared to make concessions." Sigal said that he believes the DPRK is about to agree a new deal on its missile program that could see aid "compensation" of between US$1-2 billion dollars given to the DPRK.
However, Sigal and other experts have warned that the world should not expect to see major changes in the DPRK as long as the ruling Workers' Party seeks to extend its hold on the country. Sigal said, "They are not going to open up their country, they are only going to change certain things." DPRK Nationals whom Sigal has spoken with tell him that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il "is helping us by changing the relationship with the Americans. He is helping us to grow more prosperous." ("NORTH KOREA OPENS UP WITH THE DOORS SHUT," Seoul, 10/19/00)
The Korea Herald reported that although the two Koreas are increasing economic exchanges, investments in the DPRK are still risky, according to a lawmaker's report. The report, which Representative Eom Ho-sung of the opposition Grand National Party (GNP) submitted during the parliamentary audit of government agencies Thursday, claimed that ROK investments amounting to US$5.2 million have little chance of being recovered.
As of August this year, ROK investments in the DPRK exceeded US$150 million. The sum did not include the funds needed to finance the construction of nuclear power plants by the Korean Peninsula Energy Organization and money spent by the International Corn Foundation. It also said that DPRK partners tend to ignore contracts and original business plans.
The GNP has been saying that though civilian cooperation should be encouraged, cash-strapped companies like the Hyundai Group should be discouraged from launching DPRK projects. Eom added that overly high expectations are dangerous and that thorough market research should be conducted before firms invest in the DPRK. (Lee Joon-seung, "INVESTMENT IN N.K. SAID RISKY," Seoul, 10/20/00) and The Korea Times ("$5.2 MILLION INVESTED IN NK REMAINS IRRETRIEVABLE," Seoul, 10/19/00)
Agence France Presse reported that PRC newspaper Munhwa Daily said quoted unidentified sources as saying that the railway freight services between the DPRK and the PRC have been suspended, raising speculation that PRC leader Jiang Zemin might be visiting the DPRK. The source said that PRC authorities suspended all railway shipments from Dandong and other border towns to the DPRK on October 10. The source added, "Jiang seems to have arrived in Dandong on October 17 by train to visit Pyongyang. The suspension of all railway shipments to the North appears to be a security precaution ahead of Jiang's visit to the North."
However, PRC foreign ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao dismissed the reports. Zhu said, "That is speculation from outside, there is no need for such speculation. If there is any information we shall release it timely." Asked where Jiang was, Zhu merely replied, "I don't think there is any factual foundation to that report. If there is any information we shall share it with you." ("SPECULATION JIANG IN NORTH KOREA AS RAIL SHIPMENTS SUSPENDED," Seoul, 10/19/00)
By Aidan Foster-Carter
Over the past six years, ties between the world's sole superpower and arguably its biggest rogue have developed into a unique and highly anomalous relationship. Contrast the US's tough treatment of the likes of Cuba, Iraq and Libya with its kindness to North Korea's Kim Jong-il. Now the odd friendship may get even warmer after last week's visit to Washington by Vice Marshal Cho Myong-rok. Yet you don't have to be a hawk to wonder if Pyongyang's smile diplomacy means it is actually giving any ground...
A Clinton visit to Pyongyang would have a reasonable chance of defining another sizeable step toward Korean peace. What's bugging congressional Republicans that they don't want to see him travel to North Korea to make his own contribution to the process? Kim Jong-il proved at the June inter-Korean summit that he is good for some positive surprises. There's no reason not to give him a chance for an encore...
After a recent mission to North Korea, Peter Hayes, executive director of the Nautilus Institute, comments on his recent experience and the current US-North Korean relationship. This article originally appeared in the San Francisco Chronicle on October 16, 2000.
The Korea Times reported that DPRK leader Kim Jong-il has invited Cheju Governor Woo Keun-min and the island province's people to visit the DPRK next spring. The invitation came from the North after the island provided 4,300 tons of citrus fruit to the DPRK, according to the governor. ("KIM JONG-IL INVITES CHEJU GOVERNOR," Seoul, 10/10/00)
The Korea Herald reported that ROK officials said on October 8 that the DPRK is unlikely to hold the seventh congress of its ruling Workers' Party by year's end. The Workers' Party conference has been a matter of concern among ROK watchers as the DPRK may revise its long-standing goals of communizing the ROK at the party meeting. An official said, "Given that there have been no reports about these events, however, chances appear very slim that the congress will be held this year." (Kim Ji-ho, "NORTH KOREAN PARTY CONGRESS NOT EXPECTED TO OPEN THIS YEAR," Seoul, 10/09/00)
Kyodo News Agency reported that according to the Tokyo Shimbun, the DPRK has asked Japanese companies to help improve or construct facilities at existing steel plants in the country. Japanese steel industry sources said that the DPRK has unofficially asked several Japanese companies, including Nippon Steel Corporation and Mitsui & Company help improve steel plants such as the Gumjak steel plant in Chongjin, close to the PRC and Russian borders. ("N. KOREA ASKS JAPAN TO HELP REBUILD STEEL INDUSTRY," 09/28/00)
Associated Press reported that the DPRK on October 4 warned against the dangers of outside aid. DPRK's official Workers Party daily, a commentary in the Rodong Sinmun said, "The imperialists' aid is a tool of aggression ... a dangerous toxin which brings about poverty, famine and death, not prosperity."
The remark carried by the DPRK's official foreign news outlet, Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) came as UN relief agencies were urging international donors for new food aid to avert mass famine in the DPRK. The paper did not specifically target UN food aid, but criticized the policies of the US and other Western countries for using aid to gain political control over foreign countries.
The commentary said, "The United States gives dollars to those countries suffering from financial shortage, technology to those countries backward in technology and food to those countries lacking food in the name of aid, and instead forces the introduction of American way of democracy and human rights." The ROK began shipments of US$100 million worth of food to the DPRK on October 3. ("KOREA WARNS ON OUTSIDE AID," Seoul, 10/4/00)
Agence France Presse reported that DPRK's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said DPRK leader Kim Jong-il has ordered a military shake-up, promoting 44 generals ahead of the 50th anniversary of the Worker's Party. It was the second military reshuffle since Kim was officially named supreme leader of the state two years ago. Experts in the ROK said it was part of a generational change with older officers being eased out. Kim made a new call for loyalty with the announcement. KCNA said he urged the military to "ever faithfully uphold the party's army-first revolutionary leadership as the backbone of our revolutionary armed forces and firmly guarantee the accomplishment of the revolutionary cause of Juche (self-reliance) with arms and bear the brunt of the building of a powerful socialist nation." In a part meeting speech made on October 7, Vice Marshall Jo Myong-rok, Kim's number two who left for a key mission to the US, said the military would remain loyal to Kim Jong-il. He also said, "Kim Jong-Il has successfully provided army-first revolutionary leadership, a unique political mode of Korean style, thereby firmly defending the socialist cause of juche and remarkably increasing the overall national power including the country's defence capability." ("NORTH KOREAN LEADER ORDERS MILITARY SHAKE-UP," Seoul, 10/8/00)
Agence France Presse reported that according to Italian Foreign Minister
Lamberto Dini, the DPRK has become an easier country to deal with in the past six months. After meeting ROK President Kim Dae-jung and other ROK
leaders on October 5, Dini appealed for opponents of the president's policy of engagement with the DPRK to give more time to see concrete
results. Dini said at an ROK press conference, "I noticed a great difference in attitude, in the kind of rhetoric that was used during my
visit to Pyongyang and the way the North Korean authorities are looking at problems today." He said that before the inter-Korean talks,
discussions had been dominated by objections to ROK policy and opposition to the US military presence in the ROK. However, Dini noted that the benefits of the reconciliation would not be seen in the short
term. Dini said, "No-one is expecting rapid change in North Korea. We have to keep braced for a long dialogue. But the peace dividend will
come before too long. It must be clear that Italy has no commercial, trade or economic interest with regard to the links to North Korea. It
is because of our experience that I was asked directly by the most
interested countries in order to try to establish a better stability in Northeast Asia."
("NORTH KOREA EASIER TO DEAL WITH, SAYS ENVOY," Seoul, 10/05/00)
Reuters reported that PRC President Jiang Zemin sent an effusive message to DPRK leader Kim Jong-il and visited Pyongyang's embassy in Beijing on Monday, the eve of the anniversary of the founding of the DPRK's Workers Party. PRC's official Xinhua news agency said Jiang praised Kim for "remarkable achievements", including DPRK's recent diplomacy toward other countries. In a reference to the fast-changing diplomatic environment around the Korean peninsula, Jiang's message said maintaining PRC-DPRK ties was important for regional and world peace at this "important historical moment." He said, "China is confident that the Workers' Party under the leadership of Kim Jong-il will definitely lead the people of North Korea into the new century in high spirits." ("JIANG ZEMIN HAILS NORTH KOREAN RULING PARTY," Beijing, 10/9/00)