Gamer's Notes - 8:06 - 8:11 PM - Timing of Turns
There are some basic historical facts that work against any fleet commander.
Why didn't J[ellic]oe turn sooner? Why didn't he get more light to his
south sooner? Why didn't he know what the HSF was doing when the HSF did
it? The lag in communications flow in WWI was less than in previous wars,
but still far more than what modern day navies face. Those lags, and the
absence of the ability to Q the source immediately in an information flow,
virtually guarantee that FOW remained very significant. Unfortunately
for the HSF, CJR will be no exception later in this battle.
Such intel FOW is not just a weird jj artificiality. Readers are recommended
to re-visit sources that describe the actual, historical information clarity
and quality that Jellicoe was forced to base his "Equal Speed Charlie
London" decision upon. In brief, each query Jellicoe made was followed
by a non-trivial period of silence, and waiting, and then each answer
lacked what he really needed to know. Jellicoe's historical decision and
its timing were simply brilliant.
Similarly, there will be several lags built in to the HSF's response:
(1) The Frauenlob lookouts must both spot and recognize aspect changes
on ID. Remember, they cannot see Benbow or Colossus or Marlborough. More
likely is that they will see Dreadnought turn.
(2) The lookouts must tell Ehrhart, who must decide just what to do. For
example, is this report right? What course is the GF going to? Is it a
simple course change of the separate divisions or is it a full fleet trn?
(3) Ehrhart's signal to CJR et al has a 6 minute lag built right into
it. If Frauenlob were closer and without several dreadnoughts in the way
(and, Konig, please stop that fire and smoke, right now!), CJR back on
Ostfriesland might get the word sooner. There is a chance the lag could
be a little more.
(4) CJR must decide what to do. The quicker Ehrhart gets off his initial
report, the more incomplete it will be.
(5) CJR must issue order.
(6) Order must get acknowledged.
(7) Acknowledgment must get received/reported.
(8) CJR must order "Execute."
(9) Order must be seen and executed.
Now, one BIG advantage to staying in LOB is that #6-7-8 can be skipped.
If CJR feels the need to turn by divisions, or make any formation change,
the those steps canNOT be skipped. Thus, CJR will not likely want to do
anything fancy. He cannot be sure just what the GF is doing. He will want
to remain engaged. Note: the GF formation change means that a similar
set of steps, including #6-7-8 must be completed before ID can put over
her rudder. Thus, do NOT expect ID to change course for 6 - 9 minutes,
with some chance for a little longer still.
by Jim
To the Related Jutland Story at 8:06