- NEWARK, N.J.--Saddam Hussein's
biological game-playing should fool no one. Following Iraq's defeat in
the 1991 Gulf War, the Iraqi leader agreed to let U.N. inspectors supervise
the elimination of his country's germ and chemical weapons. Six years later,
the inspectors are convinced that Iraq still is hiding germ-war leftovers,
and maybe some new stocks.
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- But while trying to find and destroy
these arsenals, U.N. inspectors have been denied entry to Hussein's palaces.
Last week, the Iraqis suddenly announced that the palaces might be opened
to inspection, but U.S. officials remained wary. There are 78 of them,
any of which could be a biological-weapons factory.
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- Whether Hussein's principal aim
is to taunt the United States and its allies or to intimidate his neighbors
is unclear. But anything less than unconditional access to suspected locations
would invite a biological or chemical nightmare.
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- One special fright about germ weapons
is just how quickly and easily they can be made. A single disease-producing
bacterium, which can divide every 20 minutes, could give rise to more than
a billion bacteria in 10 hours. Thus, a vial about the size of a bottle
of aspirin tablets could yield a huge arsenal in less than a week. For
some diseases, like anthrax, inhaling a few thousand bacteria, which would
take up less area than the period at the end of this sentence, could be
fatal.
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- Without the restraint imposed by
outside monitors, Iraq's know-how from its earlier biological and chemical
warfare programs could create a catalog of horrors. A whiff of a nerve
agent like sarin or VX, or a single drop on the skin, can kill in minutes.
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- But a biological arsenal would
be even more frightening. A 1993 government study indicated that 220 pounds
of anthrax bacteria released from a slow-flying airplane could kill 3 million
people. And anthrax is not even contagious. An attack with the bacteria
that cause plague, or the viruses that cause smallpox, could start an epidemic.
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- The 1995 release of sarin by a
Japanese cult in the Tokyo subway showed how dreadful a chemical attack
could be. The nerve agent killed 12 people and injured 5,500. Had the poison
been a biological agent, the subway might still be unusable, as past biological
warfare tests suggest. During the 1940s, British and American scientists
released anthrax bacteria in tests on Gruinard Island, off the coast of
Scotland. It took 40 years before the island could be sufficiently decontaminated
for humans to return.
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- Similarly, during a six-day period
in 1966, the army released bacteria it considered to be harmless, called
bacillus subtilis, into the New York subway. Testers would toss a light
bulb filled with bacteria onto the tracks as a train entered the station.
The air currents whipped up by the train spread the germs around.
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- Although presenting some risk to
passengers, those bacteria were not as dangerous as actual germ-war agents.
But the test showed that more than a million New Yorkers were exposed to
the bacilli. The army's report concluded that had the bacteria been true
pathogens, "a large portion of the working population in downtown
New York City would be exposed to disease." Contagious agents would
have infected passengers who then would unknowingly transmit disease to
their families and friends far beyond the area of original release.
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- The roots of repugnance toward
poison weapons are deep. Such weapons were singled out for disdain more
than 2,000 years ago in Hindu writings and in Greek and Roman codes of
conduct. Roman law provided special punishment to poisoners, including
banishment and exposure to wild animals. Biological warfare were the first
to be banned entirely by international agreement. In outlawing them, the
1972 Biological Weapons Convention describes their use as "repugnant
to the conscience of mankind."
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- The taboo against the use of biological
agents is not ironclad. But just as individuals who commit murder or incest
deserve punishment, so should leaders and nations that traffic in banned
weapons face penalties. Hussein demonstrated his unwillingness to abide
by moral constraints when he used poison gas against Iran and his own citizens
in the 1980s. Allowing him to develop biological or chemical arsenals vastly
increases the probability that these weapons will be used again.
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- Unless the international community
insists that Iraqi territory be opened to unfettered inspection, the next
use of poison weapons may not be Hussein's fault alone. We all will have
been his accomplices.
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