THE ANALYSIS And FORECASTING In POLICY
In political area “Ekton” is widely used. It could estimate different spheres: from elective technologies up to the speech of any political leader and his participation in declared actions. More than that – it could be done with a minimum information data.
Usage of Ekton system in elective technologies gives a unique capability to conduct the analysis of the program of pre-election operations, to define its weak and strong points. “Ekton” system is interesting of its ability to make changes, to test their necessity in case of the presence of weak elements.
It means that prior to the beginning of real operations “Ekton” gives a chance to conduct "a simulation" of different versions!
The analysis of perception by any audience the speech of the candidate on definite parameters and its further correction is possible.
For making the analysis of the speech of any politician and his participation in declared actions it is enough to supply us with a video / audio material with the speech you.are interested in.
Example:
During the selection of the mayor of. Perm in December 1996 the information was obtained from the teledebate of the candidates. For the forecasting we selected the following candidates: Mr.Trutnev, Mr.Fil, Mr.Khlebnikov. The Point of selection for these candidates (08.12.1996) was analysed.
As we see, from the schedule only Mr.Trutnev’s Point of selection is balanced and satisfies the conditions of fulfilment. He was selected the mayor of Perm.
“Ekton” system allows to execute a particular kind of analysis and forecasting - cycles of biotic activity.
“Ekton” system is effectively applied in elective technologies and allows to determine cycles of person’s activity (change of the status of a candidate) from the point of view of the person during all of his life.
Activity is understood as a degree of interaction of the person with a surrounding world in all its diversity. Thus, long before the term you are interested in it is possible to speak about the increase, preservation or reduction of person’s activity (status). Video recording is enough for this kind of analysis.
In case of unfavorable outcome it is necessary to make the additional analysis of a specific target: to conduct qualitative and temporary analysis, and also to determine the points of selection for changing the situation in your own advantage.
Example:
Elections of the governor of Sverdlovsk area. The analysis was conducted 20 days prior to the selection on two main candidates: Mr.Rossel and Mr.Chernetskiy.
Mr.Rossel
Mr. Chernetskiy
The brief comment:
Since July, 1995 Mr.Rossel’s activity (status) sharply increases and is stable till July, 1999. - first cycle, further small transition period, and since August 1999 till August, 2000 - second cycle of the same activity.
Thus, according to preservation of Mr.Rossel’s activity cycle (status) it is possible to conclude that he will be re-elected for the post of the governor of Sverdlovsk area.
Activity (status) Mr.Chernetskiy has not changed after holding the election and has remained at a former level.
In September, 1999 the elections of the governor of Leningrad area were held. In accordance with the orders of the customer the analysis of biotic activity cycle of a former vice-premiere of government Mr.Gustov was conducted.
The brief comment:
Mr.Gustov - the cycle of high activity was finished on 05.1999ă. After September 1999 there is no another cycle of activity. That is why he will not be elected a governor.
We shall put below some scientific rules, our system is based on.