Here we take an aside to consider the problems of 'Convergent Alternate History'. This is the tendency of alternate timelines to follow real-life long-term trends despite all manner of immediate changes whose effects risk being under-developed and whose snow-balling effect melts away after a decade or two.
Ingenohl's Glory (i.e. this timeline) was divergent in December 1914, leading to a Central Powers victory in 1918 and a Second Great War (War of Ottoman Succession) in the early 1930s. BUT NOW a similar situation to real life late 1930s has arisen.
Yes, there are GREAT differences ~ Stalin's Soviet Union lacks much of the West (ceded at Brest-Litovsk) and Eastern Siberia (occupied by Japan). The Kaiser's Germany is pre-eminent in East and South-East Europe, the Caucasus, Persia, Greater Armenia, and South Mesopotamia, all of which areas it has allies in. The Portuguese Empire has been carved up, and Germany's African Empire rivals those of Britain and France. France and Italy are both ruled by 'facist-style' governments (no change re Italy except that the French movement is the older partner). Spain and Germany have a close relationship. Austria continues to exist as a federated power . In the Pacific the USA , Australia (increasingly independent) and Holland have a sort of defensive alliance against Japan and Germany's North Pacific presence. South Africa has declared itself sovereign. King Edward VIII reigns in Britain initially with Robert Ceceil's Conservative government strongly backed by the monarchy, and after the 1938 elections with Lloyd George's minority Liberal government in office. President Donovan rules in the USA, Laval in France and Inonu in a Turkey that has lost Western and North-Eastern Anatolia but retains Syria and Northern Mesopotamia. Tsar Ferdinand's Bulgaria has possession of Constantinople and King Alexander rules over a Greece which has extended its borders North into Northern Epirus (S. Albania) and across the Aegean from Smyrna inland, as well as over the Dardanelles . Germany has built the prestigious Berlin-Tehran Railway (main stops = Warsaw, Kiev, Rostov, Tiflis, Baku, Tabriz and Tehran , with a spur continuing to Basra , a growing German naval base)
BUT . . .
Germany and Japan are allies
Italy has invaded Abyssinia
Japan has invaded China
Soviet Russia is at war with Finland
Britain's empire remains
- the dominions are moving away
- she has close allies in the Middle East
- India is a source of trouble
The major 'danger' of convergent alternate history rearing its head is in initiating a Pacific War between Japan and the USA without considering whether the run of events still points that way in the alternate timeline. Japan occupies Eastern Siberia and North-Eastern China and still has British and French trade, plus a strong German ally with a fleet and bases in the theatre. Is there a NEED for war from a Japanese perspective ?
Other areas that may provide a source of divergence despite convergence elsewhere in the world include :-
Africa
- Germany's colonial presence , including in Morocco, Angola and Mozambique
- Italy's colonial presence , including in Tunis
- South Africa's independence
South America
- How are these nations affected by the world situation ?