It's not rocket science, only a balance between greed and fear, but ultimate success goes to those who can afford to be patient.
Portfolio update week ending March 4, 2000
By
EmckobaSnr. Investment Analyst
March 4, 2000
In the past week the portfolio gained 30 points (
82% to 112%). SAMSys (SMY/ME) remains the best performer (420%) in the portfolio having widened the gap between its cumulative return and the next best performer (Cryptologic, CRY/TSE) (136%) in the group. Cryptologic has surpassed SCS Solars (115%) as the 2nd best performer in the group, with the announcement of its NASDAQ listing on Friday, March 4, 2000. On Friday, March 4, CRY/TSE gained $9.85 on its Thursday close to appreciate $18.10 ($61.10 less $43) for the week. Over the past 2 weeks, Lumenon (71%), has made tremendous gains from the low $20's to the mid $40's mainly because of a positive outlook in an analyst reportFor the coming week momentum will continue to remain with CRY/TSE, SMY/ME and SCS/VSE and LUMM.
JDS Uniphase announced its second stock split in 3 months and I expect this stock to gain at least 10% in the coming week because of the Fiber optics convention this week. I have tremendous confidence in SCS Solars Computing and would ask readers who have hesitated to take the plunge, to take a look before the stampede begins.When we selected BCE at Dec 31, 1999 for our 2000 RRSP portfolio our concerns were as follows:-
Issues 2 and 3 are being tackled directly by distributing Nortel shares to BCE shareholders and the recent offer for CTV to provide content for Bell Sympatico respectively. It is doubtful at this time how the acquisition of Teleglobe will help them to address issue # 1. The markets await a clear strategy to tackle this issue.
The cumulative gains for this portfolio grew from
7% (Feb 26,2000) to 19% (March 4, 2000) with 4 out of the 5 stocks still spotting negative returns for the 63-day period ended March 4, 2000. As mentioned last week (in the reasons for picking them as our top 5 stocks) the train for ICGE is just leaving the station, it's bottomed out and I believe the time to get involved is now.MP3 (MPPP/NASDAQ) bottomed out last week at $17 and has started its redeeming journey to regain its 52-week high of $105. Only a few people are convinced about the efficacy of MP3's business model and these people are quite fanatical about it. They (including yours faithfully) are a clear reminder of believers in Apple Macintosh and Linux. We all know the immense successes of these two groups today.
This portfolio's (a selection from our FLINT stocks) cumulative gains (from it's June 1, 1999 profiling) increased from
163% on Feb 26, 2000 to 247% on March 4, 2000. With a 66% gain in the past week (due to upward 12-month target-revisions to $18), Jaws Technology has surpassed Homeseekers (cumulative gains - 321%) as the leading stock in this portfolio with cumulative gains of 633%. Jaws Technology continues to be at the leading edge of encryption technology and currently has the most secure (Jaws-16,384 bits, RSA-4,096 bits and Network Associates - 2,048bits) technology on the market. We have been following this company since Nov 1998 when it was selling for $0.26CAD per share.EKP up 27% (for the week and cumulative gains of 311% since June 1, 1999), despite the crowding in the Internet incubator sector should consolidate its gains over the $3 level.
A 52-point gain in the past week for this portfolio increased cumulative gains from
279% (Feb 26, 2000) to 331% on March 4, 2000. $80K investment in Jan 99 will now be $344K. Big gains expected from FMI by June 2000. Good things happen for those who can afford to wait.Certicom is still the best performer in this portfolio with 1402% gain (its encryption software has 210 bits) and no match for Jaws Technology. It has the advantage of having already signed an alliance agreement with a list comparable to 'who is who' of the telecom OEMs - Qualcomm, Ericsson, Sybase, Lucent etc.
Cryptologic has already surpassed our targets for the year and we expect it to double again ($100) by Dec 31, 2000.
Cumulative gains now
693% after 794 days, compared to 648% a week ago. On track to grow this $40K investment into $1M by 2008 (10 year life). A good week for Dell, it gained 12% in the week.
Cumulative gains to March 4 were
966% compared to 786% on Feb 26, 2000. This portfolio contains the Microsoft's or Cisco's of the year 2008.Wi-lan was picked in this portfolio in 1998 when it was trading at $1.40 on the Alberta Exchange with a market cap of below $20M. Today the company built by Dr. Hatim Zaghloul (and his boyhood friend, Michel Fattouche) is valued at $2B and has accumulated gains of 5757% and the owner of the Wideband Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (W-OFDM) patents. The technology breaks high-speed signals into thousands of signals to be sent concurrently on different frequencies,. This technology gives them a competitive edge compared to the traditional method of sending one signal at a time, with its inherent problems - noise, multipath and bandwidth. Wi-lan is competing vigorously with the likes of Cisco and plans to sign OEM agreements with highly successful OEMs. A $10,000 investment in this company in 1998 would be worth $642K today.
Closely following Wi-lan in the portfolio, is Jaws Technology with 3158% gain. At the bottom of the scorecard are SINC and Rocca that are new additions yet to be recognized by the markets.
Cumulative gains decreased from
44% on Feb 26, 2000 to 43% on March 4, 2000