Further we shall show real examples of forecasting from our practice, which are published with the consent of our Clients.
Example ¹ 1
Task for forecasting:
" ORGANIZATION of PRODUCTION __ (D) __ "
Qualitative analysis
Point of selection
The temporary analysis
The brief comment:
An emotional condition is steady.
The contacts and established communications are selected correctly, however their character is biased not to the business, but emotional interaction. For the Client the self-rating of his business capabilities is overstated a bit. He demonstrates them through the interaction with the people. Also there is a small predilection to receive the ungrounded strong-willed decisions. All this introduces a redundant nervousness into relationship with staff. The capabilities for realisation are good.
The point of selection has a steady, well-balanced character. It shows that this variant of actions will be adopted in August 1998ã.
The temporary analysis displays, that the implementation of the project will begin at the
end of August 1998ãîäà, and it will go harmonically.
Conclusion: the selected variant of actions satisfies the conditions of fulfilment. It will be realized according to the planned terms.
Now project is realised.
Example ¹ 2
Task for forecasting:
" ELECTIONS of the DIRECTOR "
Let's put an example of forecasting, in which one customer presented "initial conditions" in a wrong way.
Two days before the election the customer put a problem and wrote the following phrase:
" Election of Mr. N on general meeting at the post of General director of Association "
The analysis included two directions:
2. Temporary analysis.
Point of selection.
Temporary interval - 1 month.
The temporary analysis
The brief comment:
The point of selection differed by high instability, that put under doubt a positive outcome of an election.
The temporary analysis displayed an incompleteness of a situation, keeping it unsolved on durable period of time.
Conclusion:
The given person will not be selected at a post of general director.
In two days the elections have passed. And He was elected at this post !?
The customer determined the forecast as an unfulfilled one.
A year later we met the customer and remembered the forecast.
The customer complained that the person, whom he supported intensively at the elections, does not work with him in co-operation!!!
Then we have asked a question:
What have you presupposed while formulating the task for a forecasting?
The discussion cleared up the idea: The Customer meant joint activity with the candidate after successful elections.
Conclusion:
The forecast was correct and it reflected an implied problem - implementation of the joint projects. That is the thing, which was presupposed while writing a phrase " Election of Mr. N at the general meeting at the post of the General director of Association ".
Therefore the co-ordination of "initial conditions" is of great value. And correct treatment of outcomes depends on it.
Forecasting.
Example ¹ 3
Task for forecasting:
" OBTAINING A REWARD FOR INTERMEDIARY SERVICES "
Qualitative analysis
Points of selection. An interval - a year
The brief comment:
The emotional condition is unstable, it is characterised by extra excitability. Established contacts and communications are harmonic.
For the customer the significance of rendered service is not of great value. The customer has predilection to receive the ungrounded strong-willed solutions. He overestimates a lot the realisable capabilities on rendering a service.
Point of selection is unstable. The selection of the given version of a service will be done on 20.10.98.
Conclusion:
The customer exaggerates the capabilities on rendering a service and obtaining a reward.
There is practically no chance to receive a reward.
The customer has undertaken definite operations, which gave a negative outcome. The reward was not obtained.
Example ¹ 4
THE MANAGER ___ (X) ___
" AN ESTIMATION OF PROFESSIONAL ABILITIES
AT SOLVING A CONCRETE PROBLEM "
Qualitative analysis
Point of selection
The temporary analysis
The brief comment:
The estimation of a perspective to solve a problem and to make a set of tactical operations is done with a partial reference to existing conditions and customers. It can result in redundant costs and efforts.
The manager forces the activity, that can result in small remedied errors. Basicly selected operations satisfy the conditions of realisation. The entrusted problem will be solved with small correction.
Point of selection is steady. The selection, which will be done on 12.11.98ã., satisfies the conditions of realisaton.
The implementation of a set problem will begin from 16.11.98ã.
Conclusion:
The manager will solve a problem in the indicated terms. However its the fulfilment will demand additional costs and efforts.
Example ¹5
Task to forecasting:
" IMPLEMENTATION of PLANNED RELATIONSHIP”
A WOMAN __ (L) __ A MAN __ (K) __ "
Qualitative analysis
Points of selection
Development in time
The analysis of selection
The brief comment::
As the real final goal of planned relationship is not determined, the accent is done on daily contacts. The sequence of relations is selected correctly, but it is not bound to the particular person. “She” does not take into account “His” individuality. The absence of self-realisation for the woman in the present relations explains their small significance for “Her”. The woman also does not have tendency to achieve realisation of planned relations. “She” has no any capability to realise them either.
In the present situation the selection will be done on 23 –24 December, 1998ã. The selection is characterised by high instability.
The development of a situation has unstable character also.
The motivation of selection in a point of selection is grounded on tendency to understand the present relations and to suppress the emotions.
Conclusion:
The planned relationship will not be realised.